Real-time forecasting of water table depth and soil moisture profiles

We present a method for real-time forecasting of water table depth and soil moisture profiles. The method combines a simple form of data-assimilation with a moving window calibration of a deterministic model describing flow in the unsaturated zone and local as well as regional drainage. The local drainage level is calibrated on-line using a moving window calibration. Assigning more weight to the last available measurements then yields a form of model adaptation that is in between on-line calibration and data-assimilation (i.e. a simplified form of Newtonian nudging). Five-day hydrological forecasts are performed based on 5-day weather forecasts, while on-line observations of phreatic level and soil moisture content are assimilated on a daily basis. Advantages of the proposed method are that it improves the real-time forecasts compared to off-line calibration and ordinary moving window calibration and that it yields physically consistent soil moisture profiles.     

Wave hindcasting off the coast of Portugal

A study was conducted applying a second-generation wave model to predictions in coastal zones. The model was calibrated with wave measurements conducted off the Portuguese coast, for a period of 6 months. The wind fields used in the calculation were supplied by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMRWF). The calibrated model allows good predictions of significant wave height. Satisfactory comparisons have been made with predictions of the WAM model