Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.     

东北亚地区MS6.0以上地震异常电磁波动研究

利用2005-01~2009-12 DEMETER电磁卫星详查模式下磁场与电场的极低频（ELF）三分量波形数据,选取东北亚地区（38°~58°N,105°~145°E）6个M_S≥6地震,对震前30 d震中上空±10°的6 000余条1130和1135轨道数据进行波矢分析和坡印廷矢量分析。结果发现,2005-08-16日本本洲东岸近海M_S7.2地震和2009-06-05日本北海道地区M_S6.6地震震前在质子回旋频率以下记录到来源于地球的异常电磁波扰动;2005-11-10俄罗斯西伯利亚东南部M_S6.4地震和2007-08-02俄罗斯萨哈林岛(库页岛)M_S6.8地震震前在质子回旋频率以下没有记录到异常电磁波扰动;2007-02-17日本北海道地区M_S6.2地震和2008-06-13日本本州东岸近海M_S7.3地震震前在质子回旋频率以下记录到异常电磁波扰动,但并非来源于地球。     

地面VLF波穿透电离层的能量衰减变化

地面VLF人工源可以导致辐射带高能粒子沉降.为研究辐射带粒子加速和沉降机制,乃至实现对辐射带电子"人工控制"的设想,需要在精确计算得到VLF人工源在电离层激发电磁场能量分布的基础上,计算哨声波对辐射带电子的调制作用.以往计算VLF人工源在电离层中激发的电磁场能量分布多基于Cary给出的波导中VLF波衰减率和Helliwell提出的经典电离层吸收曲线,但近期研究表明,这些模型结果存在较为明显的误差.本研究建立了地面VLF信号穿透电离层传播的全波计算模型,将计算结果与DEMETER卫星记录的NWC通讯台激发的电磁响应进行对比.虽然模型没有考虑电离层参数水平不均匀性,但模型计算结果与卫星观测值也有较好的一致性.利用经过验证的全波模型计算了不同地磁参数、电离层参数情况下,不同辐射特性的地面VLF辐射在波导中的衰减和穿透电离层时D/E区的吸收值,探讨了上述参数对电磁波能量在波导和D/E区中衰减的影响规律.     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震电离层图像信息长时程演化初探

应用改进的图像信息方法, 结合DEMETER电磁卫星的电子温度数据, 对2008年汶川M_S8.0地震进行了长时程的回溯性预测研究。 与以往的地震电离层演化图像提取异常的研究相比, 将其回溯的时程延长至震前近11个月, 并向震后延长48 d。 在长期连续的异常扰动演化图中, 出现了两个明显的异常时段, 且在震前2个月短期内异常扰动明显减弱并趋于背景值。 两个时段出现的异常扰动分布位置及其形态以及持续时间皆不重复, 这体现了前兆异常的不易确定, 难以定性及定量识别的特点。 电离层异常扰动特征的长时程研究, 有评估其预测参数和模型可靠性的实际作用, 也为应用中国卫星观测数据服务于地震预报等研究积累经验, 具有借鉴意义。     

NWC通信台在电离层中激发电磁响应的时变特征

本文利用DEMETER卫星VLF频段电场和磁场频谱数据对DEMETER卫星运行期间2005年至2009年澳大利亚甚低频(Very Low Frequency)通信台NWC发射的通信信号造成的电离层电磁响应的日变化、季节变化及年变化特征进行了统计分析,统计结果表明电磁响应日变化显著,夜间电场强度明显增强可达40dB,磁场变化略小也可为15dB左右,而季节变化不显著,年变化主要受太阳活动的影响,太阳活动越强,电磁响应越小.为解释数据分析结果,对地-电离层电磁波传播过程采用传递矩阵方法进行了模拟计算,模拟结果与数据分析的结果一致.我们认为这种随时间变化的特点可能由250km以下电离层电子密度分布特征导致,因此研究250km以下的电离层电子密度变化可能对寻找地震电离层电磁异常有重要意义.     

利用DEMETER卫星数据统计分析全球Mw≥7.0 地震的电离层电子浓度异常

基于法国DEMETER卫星ISL探测器升轨数据,统计分析了2005—2009年全球37个M_w≥7.0级地震前后电离层电子浓度变化.结果发现,共有19个地震（51%）前观测到了较为明显的电子浓度异常扰动现象,其中大部分表现为异常增强;观测到的电子浓度异常现象一般出现在震前1~5天内,也有部分地震前出现两次及以上扰动现象.分析表明,在赤道和中低纬地区更容易观测到明显的电子浓度扰动,即异常震例基本发生在纬度±40°以内（18次）,更是以±20°内居多（13次）.此外,震源深度对电子浓度扰动的影响并不明显,而震级大小则与扰动幅度基本上呈正相关;震前出现的电子浓度异常有时会受到地磁活跃的共同影响,此时的扰动幅度一般较大.地震电离层扰动现象是复杂多变的,需要联合地基和天基手段共同观测,并从机理上加强研究.     

利用GPS和DEMETER数据分析汶川地震前电离层变化

利用GPS TEC和法国DEMETER卫星ISL探测器的观测数据,分析了汶川地震前电离层变化.结果表明,电离层TEC在5月6-10日地方时下午有连续的负异常现象,5月9日地方时下午有明显的正异常现象.电离层TEC异常的范围主要位于震中南部区域,EW方向上1 100 ～1 670km,SN方向上1 600 ～3 700km.5月6日的负异常偏震中东南,5月7日的负异常偏震中西南,5月9日的正异常偏震中东南.震中西南和南部地区负异常较东南地区明显,震中南部和东南地区正异常程度较西南地区偏高,震中位置所对应南半球磁力线共轭区都出现了一定程度的正或负扰动.DEMETER卫星观测的电子密度Ne和离子密度N.在5月6-10日也出现了明显的负异常,异常分布与电离层TEC异常分布较为一致,主要集中在震中南部.震中所在的经度带上存在2个负异常峰值,且在纬度上关于地磁赤道对称.最后在上述异常的基础上,对基于岩石圈-大气层-电离层耦合的地震电离层异常机理开展了初步讨论.     

汶川MS8.0级大震前天基与陆基电场资料联合应用研究

利用边际谱方法对2008年5月12日四川汶川地震前天基和陆基电场变化情况进行了联合分析研究,结果表明:(1)空间电场方面,由重复轨道和连续轨道电场边际谱演化看出,电离层电场从2008年4月27日左右开始,其边际谱出现了明显的增强现象(增大1~2个量级),这种现象一直持续到汶川地震发生.(2)陆基电场方面,中法合作的松山...     

Ionospheric perturbations before Pu’er earthquake observed on DEMETER

A destructive shock with magnitude of 6.3 occurred on 2 June 2007 at 21h34min56s UT in Pu’er region (23.0°N, 101.1°E), Yunnan Province, China. The data from DEMETER satellite during the period from 23 May to 2 June, i.e., ten days before the earthquake and one day just on the day of earthquake occurrence, were analyzed. Among the 284 orbits of DEMETER during the period, 29 orbits with the trace passing through the region within 1 888 km from the epicenter were selected to be studied. Seven anomalous events were found on the dataset of the seven orbits among the 29 ones. There existed synchronous perturbations on the variations of the spectrogram of the electric field and the variations of the density and temperature of the ions and electron, in contrast with the variations of its surround- ing area. And five events appeared in the space within 1 888 km from the epicenter while the other two were out of the studied area. Electrostatic turbulences were also recorded with the synchronous perturbations with that in the electron density and ions density in plasma in the region near the epicenter in the five events, which seems to sug- gest that there be some physical relation between these events and the preparation processes of Pu’er earthquake.     

Spectral features of geomagnetic low point displacement and its mechanism

In this paper,Changli station in Hebei Province was taken as an example,in which the minute data of geomagnetic Z component was used to analyze the spectral values of its main frequencies during normal time,geomagnetic storm time and low point displacement time interval respectively. After fitting of ten high spectral values to loga-rithmic functions,it is found that,by using same length of data,the spectral values at geomagnetic storm time in-crease apparently compared with those at normal time,especially at the high frequency segment. While low point displacement occurred,the spectral values at high frequency are approximate to those at normal time,but at period above 4 hours they are mostly lower than those at normal time. Comparison of accumulating of some FFT results at low point displacement and normal time shows that,spectral values at periods of 8.5 and 13.7 hours increase at low point displacement time relative to those at normal time. Compared with the images of Ne observed at DE-METER satellite,it is illustrated that the occurrence of geomagnetic low point displacement is well corresponding with the increase of Ne in ionosphere. Finally it was discussed about those spectral features and the occurrence mechanism of geomagnetic low point displacement.