大同—阳高Ms6.1地震前兆综合加权信息熵的变化

利用“地震预报计算机专家系统”的思想对大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前每一前兆异常事件进行综合评估 ,以每一异常的最可能发震时间来计算发震概率 ,利用地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究了系统熵值与地震的关系。对华北地区的地震前兆综合加权信息熵研究表明 ,在大同 -阳高 Ms6 .1地震前 ,信息熵出现了明显的减熵有序变化     

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。     

疏散星团NGC6530天区的恒星自行和成员概率

利用上海天文台的照相底片资料,确定了疏散星团NGC6530天区364颗恒星的自行和成员概率,并对有关自行测定的方法、结果和精度等问题作了较为详细的介绍和讨论。使用的底片历元差为87年,全部恒星自行中误差的均方根值为1．09mas/a。     

贵州和四川盆地云量的气候研究

贵州和四川盆地是我国云量最多的地区,素有“天无三日晴”和“蜀犬吠日”之说,盆地西缘的雅安古时还有“雅州天漏”的谚语。从全球日照百分率分布推知,川黔地区也是世界上天气最阴沉的地区之一。川黔之阴一向为国内外气象界所注意,本文根据1951—1980     

云南官房铜矿床矿石矿物特征及银的赋存状态

通过显微镜鉴定、电子探针(EPMA)及扫描电镜能谱分析(SEM/EDS)等方法,首次对官房铜矿的矿物组合和银的赋存状态进行了研究。初步查明,矿石矿物为中-低温热液成因,并受火山机构及断裂构造的控制;银矿物主要为碲银矿和辉银矿。矿石中银与铜呈明显正相关关系,而方铅矿中不含银。银主要以类质同象的形式赋存于含铜矿物或黄铁矿中;银的独立矿物含量低,且多呈包裹体的形式存在于黄铜矿、斑铜矿及黄铁矿中,或以微细粒状赋存于矿物颗粒间和斑铜矿的表面。     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

P-III分布参数的概率权重矩法S函数计算

概率权重矩法是一种估计统计分布参数的方法.本文根据不完全Γ函数在无限区间积分,推导了P-Ⅲ分布参数的S函数的计算公式.通过现有计算公式比较,其计算结果具有较高的计算精度,避免了的大量的数值积分计算.文中公式只要借助于计算编程进行求解,给定超几何函数项一定的截断误差,其运算具有较高的运行速度.文中计算公式是一种P-Ⅲ分布参数S函数的计算途径.     

海浪的条件特征周期

在海浪波面高度为正态分布的假定下,导出一种以给定波高为条件的条件周期概率密度函数.与风浪槽中测量数据比较,结果表明,在窄谱情况下此概率密度函数与实验室风浪的实际符合良好.根据此密度函数定义了3种条件特征周期,并导出它们与平均周期的关系式.根据这些关系对有关海洋工程上的一些问题作了解释和讨论.     

A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…