长江上游洪涝暴雨环流形势中期演变趋势分析

本文通过对1980年以来长江上游10次洪涝过程的500hpa环流形势分析,并用车比雪夫多项式对500hpa高度场进行展开,研究了各类洪涝过程的中期演变特征,发现代表不同洪涝过程环流形势变化的不同的车氏系数值都有明显的特征变化,结合欧洲中心中期数值预告96小时500hpa高度场的车氏系数分析,可为洪涝暴雨的中期预报提供一种新的思路。     

Aerosol climatology for the planetary boundary layer derived from regular lidar measurements

Regular aerosol extinction and backscatter measurements using a UV Raman Lidar have been performed for almost 3 years in Hamburg in the frame of the German Lidar Network. A set of 92 aerosol extinction and 164 aerosol backscatter profiles has been used for statistical investigations. Mean values and variances of the aerosol extinction and backscatter in the boundary layer have been calculated. Large fluctuations during the whole year have been found. The measured aerosol extinction over Hamburg shows a seasonal cycle with highest values in early fall and a second less prominent peak in spring.An analysis of the data using back trajectories showed a dependence of the aerosol extinction on the origin of the air mass. The residence time of the air mass over industrialized areas was found to be an important parameter for the measured aerosol extinction at Hamburg. However, only a small part of the total variability could be explained by the air mass origin.For 75 cases of aerosol extinction measurements under cloud-free conditions, the aerosol backscatter profile and therefore, the lidar ratio as a function of altitude could be determined. Winter measurements of the lidar ratio are often close to model results for maritime aerosol, the summer measurements are close to the model results for urban or continental aerosols.The high quality of the data has been proven by intercomparisons with other lidar systems and with star photometer measurements of the aerosol optical depth during the Lindenberg Aerosol Characterization Experiment (LACE'98) field campaign.     

冷岛效应的分析解

本文将冷岛视为一个负的扰动加热源,即冷源,用小扰动方法求出了冷岛效应的分析解,给出了解例,并与热岛效应的结果作了对比分析。     

东亚和西太平洋爆发性温带气旋发生的气候学研究

本文利用历史天气图资料,对1973—1988年中国东部和沿海地区的温带气旋及其爆发性发展情况进行了统计,共有1014个温带气旋发生,其中有1/5达到了爆发性发展的强度,构成了西太平洋爆发性海洋气旋的一部分.它占整个西太平洋爆发性气旋总频数(包括不同来源)的51％.进而对这类爆发性气旋的活动规律进行了分析,概括出了它们的气候学特征.比较亚洲大陆、中国近海及西太平洋地区的爆发性温带气旋表明,西太平洋地区不仅频繁而且强烈.而东、西太平洋地区发生海洋爆发性气旋的对比表明,二者存在着明显的差异.同时也指出,东太平洋地区爆发性气旋的发生并不是一种少见的现象.     

Developing a high-resolution climatology for the Central California coastal region

This work presents a procedure for developing a high-resolution, regional climatology estimate, named RClimo, off the coast of central California. This high-resolution climatology may provide an alternative way to initialize numerical nowcast/forecast exercises in coastal regions. The methodology includes two primary steps: (1) averaging available data on a high-resolution grid and (2) objective interpolating the resulting average profiles onto a regular grid. The first step involves the computation of averages over density layers in the vertical and allowing for data gaps in the horizontal if data are unavailable at a high resolution. The OA in the second step uses anisotropic correlation length scales derived from the data themselves and an averaging radius to preserve the scales and variability of the synoptic fields.     

Tornado climatology of Austria

After several decades of little work, a revised tornado climatology for Austria is presented. Tornadoes seldom form in the alpine areas, however, near the eastern flanks of the Alps, favourable conditions for tornado genesis are found. Whereas in the alpine regions less than 0.3 tornadoes per 10,000 km² a year touch down (averaged for provinces or major parts of a province), we can count 0.9 in the greater Graz area, 1.0 in the greater Linz area and 1.2 tornadoes per 10,000 km² a year in the greater Vienna area, suggesting the existence of so-called tornado alleys. As these regions are the most populated areas of Austria, there is a possible population bias in the dataset. The overall average for Austria is 0.3 tornadoes per 10,000 km² a year.The database consists of 89 tornadoes, one landspout and six waterspouts, with a total of 96 events. The seasonal peak is in July with a maximum probability of tornadoes in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Every fifth tornado occurs in the hour after 5 p.m. The maximum intensity determined for a tornado in Austria was T7 on the TORRO-Scale (F3 on the Fujita-Scale), the most common intensity is T2 on the TORRO-Scale (F1 on the Fujita-Scale).     

利用步长模拟对青藏高原涡度方差测量法的质量评价

利用痕迹模拟方法对青藏高原两处地方涡度方差的测量数据进行了质量分析，揭示了其空间和时间结构。分析表明高达1/3的测量没有达到必要的数据正确假设。尽管这样对潜热、CO2、动量通量的测量基本通过测试，可以适用于基础研究，但是经常发现特定的风矢量违背基本假设条件。感热通量的测量允许使用不间断的连续测量法，然而由于局地地形的影响少量评估指数未能合理解释，但能够指示出组织结构及用于导出边界层中尺度流体模型假说。     

Cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere due to doubling of CO2

A new parameterization of infrared radiative transfer in the 15-m CO₂ band has been incorporated into the Spectral mesosphere/lower thermosphere model (SMLTM). The parameterization is applicable to calculations of heating rates above approximately 15 km for arbitrary vertical profiles of the CO₂ concentration corresponding to the surface mixing ratio in the range 150–720 ppm. The sensitivity of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to doubling of CO₂ has been studied. The thermal response in the MLT is mostly negative (cooling) and much stronger than in the lower atmosphere. An average cooling at the stratopause is about 14 K. It gradually decreases to approximately 8 K in the upper mesosphere and again increases to about 40–50 K in the thermosphere. The cooling and associated thermal shrinking result in a substantial density reduction in the MLT that reaches 40–45% in the thermosphere. Various radiative, chemical, and dynamical feedbacks potentially important for the thermal response in the MLT are discussed. It is noted that the results of simulations are strikingly similar to observations of long-term trends in the MLT. This suggests that during the last 3–4 decades the thermal structure in the real upper atmosphere has undergone substantial changes driven by forcing comparable with that due to doubling of CO₂.     

古气候记录指示的天文周期分析

利用西峰市以西16km处的巴家嘴黄土剖面的上新世以来的（6.2-2.5MaB.P.）磁化率和粒重及太平洋深海沉积物资料，用不同的数据分析方法，不仅得到地球轨道主要参数中（对应于偏心率、交角和气候岁差）的0.1Ma、0.041Ma和0.023Ma几个天文周期，而且还得到了0.20Ma、0.15Ma、0.08Ma和0.06Ma其他周期，它们都在80%置信度水平以上，此外，通过小波变换表明，所有这些周期呈现出时变特性，随不同的地质年代增强或逐渐消失，这说明古气候的变化受多种古环境的影响所致，近来提出0.1Ma周期变化不但和地球轨道偏心率有关，而且可能和星际尘埃粒子沉降速率和青藏高原的隆升有着密切的关系。因此，地球轨道参数变化影响气候长期变化只是其中一种因素。     

全球纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式分析

本文从能量平衡角度,考虑海气相互作用和纬向间的差异,设计了一个纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式,进行了模式平衡态求解、敏感性试验以及随机分析。并对模式部分计算结果进行了与实测资料的比较,验证了模式的合理性和可信性。