Isotope hydrological study of mean transit time in the granitic Strengbach catchment (Vosges massif,France): application of the FlowPC model with modified input function

Measurements of ¹⁸O concentrations in precipitation, soil solution, spring and runoff are used to determine water transit time in the small granitic Strengbach catchment (0·8 km²; 883–1146 m above sea level) located in the Vosges Mountains of northeastern France. Water transit times were calculated by applying the exponential, exponential piston and dispersion models of the FlowPC program to isotopic input (rainfall) and output (spring and stream water) data sets during the period 1989–95. The input function of the model was modified compared with the former version of the model and estimated by a deterministic approach based on a simplified hydrological balance. The fit between observed and calculated output data showed marked improvements compared with results obtained using the initial version of the model. An exponential piston version of the model applied to spring water indicates a 38·5 month mean transit time, which suggests that the volume in the aquifer, expressed in water depth, is 2·4 m. A considerable thickness (>45 m) of fractured bedrock may be involved for such a volume of water to be stored in the aquifer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the recovery of surface wave by pressure transfer function

Except the commonly selected pressure transfer function derived from the linear wave theory, a previous study on the pressure transfer function for recovering surface wave from underwater pressure transducer suggested that the pressure transfer function is a function of frequency parameter only. With careful analysis, this study showed that the pressure transfer function should include a transducer submergence parameter as that given by the linear theory. It was found that the previously suggested empirical formula should be restricted to measurements with the pressure transducer close to the surface; otherwise overestimation of wave height would result. Field measurements were carried out with an acoustic wave gauge and a synchronized pressure transducer located at various depths with submergence parameter close to 1 (near the sea floor). It was shown that the previous one-parameter empirical formula might overestimate the significant wave height by more than 30%. This study found that with deep-water wave bursts excluded, the transfer function based on the linear wave theory provided a fairly good estimation on the significant wave heights, with an average deviation of 3.6%.     

Wave runup on a concentric twin perforated circular cylinder

The regular wave interaction with a twin concentric porous circular cylinder system consisting of an inner impermeable cylinder and an outer perforated cylinder was studied through physical model and numerical model studies. The experiments were carried out on the twin concentric cylinder model in a wave flume to study the wave runup and rundown at the leading and trailing edges of the perforated cylinder. It was found that the maximum wave runup on the perforated cylinder is almost same as the incident wave height. The experimental results were used to develop the predictive formulae for the wave runup and rundown on the perforated cylinder, which can be easily used for design applications. The wave runup profiles around the perforated cylinder for different values of ka and porosities were studied numerically using Green's Identity Method. The results of the numerical study are presented and compared with the experimental measurements.     

Sediment movement under unidirectional flows: an assessment of empirical threshold curves

A selection of threshold data sets from previous investigations is used to re-examine, selectively, some of the empirical curves that are most commonly used for the prediction of sediment threshold. Simple analytical formulae are derived describing single line curves for mean threshold values and envelopes for the initial movement of discrete particles and the commencement of mass sediment transport phases of the critical condition.The complexity of factors governing the prevailing conditions at threshold, together with the randomness of events, limits deterministic solutions; however, the curves provide an approach that can be used readily in practical applications. In contrast, the envelope presentation is more of a stochastic approach to the definition of threshold. It recognises that there is no definitive threshold condition under which a particular particle size can be displaced, but rather that a range of threshold values exist.The empirical threshold relationships were derived on the basis of a relatively large amount of data. However, the sources utilised have interpreted the ‘critical condition’ in various ways, implying that the formulae must be treated with caution in applications.     

Bowen数和东中国海Bowen数分布

本文讨论Bowen数的意义、功能和计算法。同时,依据多年水文气象实测资料作统计,计算出东中国海的Bo值。其结果绘制成1月至12月的月平均分布图,从而对本海域的Bo分布特点作详细分析介绍。     

Generalized ‘dependencies’ and parameter variance

The autodependence, (a special case of the — now quite obsolete — dependences, which had been introduced for very specialized astrometric purposes) is proportional to the parameter variance which is the expectation of the variance of the systematic error of a function evaluated with estimated parameters.     

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

基于广义Hough变换的不规则形状目标提取方法

提出了一种基于广义Hough变换的不规则形状目标的提取方法。该方法主要包括目标参数描述和目标提取两部分。实验表明，该方法精度好、效率高。     

有限弹性变形地壳中的地震波

地壳由半无限大的基岩上一层厚度为H^-的表土层组成，入射地震波为垂直的SH波，产生水平地面运动。当浅源大地震发生时，在极震区以外行波传播产生地面运动将使地壳介质有非线性的有限弹性变形。用小参数摄动法使非线性控制方程为线性化的小参数各阶控制方程，得出头两阶线性控制方程的解析解。