Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China （April 2007～May 2007）

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ″Preliminary Seismological Report of Chi-     

物源条件对震后泥石流发展影响的初步分析

强震过后一定时期内,泥石流的活跃性增强,即数量增多、规模增大、频率增加。而随着松散物质储量的减少,泥石流的活跃性会随之衰减。为了具体考察物源条件对震后泥石流活动的影响,使用震后泥石流逐年平均输沙量作为刻画泥石流活跃性的指标,在云南蒋家沟和西藏古乡沟泥石流数据的基础上,定量地分析了震后泥石流活跃性的变化过程。分析表明存在降雨控制型和物源控制型两种泥石流流域。前者的泥石流在震后很长一段时间内都不衰减,其发生主要取决于降雨条件。后者最大规模的泥石流发生于地震过后的短时间内,尔后泥石流活动随时间显著减弱。泥石流规模和频率的关系与暴雨不一致。当物源控制型流域的无量纲化活跃性指标值降为0.12左右时,可以认为泥石流进入了稳定或者衰弱期,不会再有大规模的泥石流事件发生。数据拟合结果表明,整个泥石流活跃性的衰减过程可以用幂函数来描述。其衰减指数与剩余物质储量和总物质储量之比存在密切的关系。这为定量预测震后泥石流发展趋势提供了一个初步的模型。     

A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition (that the correlation becomes stronger) is satisfied, the mean prediction error (16.1) is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied (38.7). This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search.for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4±15.7, and the peak as May 2012± 11 months.     

Strong earthquake activity all over the world and strong-moderate earthquake activity within and near China （February 2007-March 2007）

Illustration All the data in this catalog are chosen from the ″Preliminary Seismological Report of Chinese Seismic Stations″ (Its abbreviation is ″Monthly Report″). The catalog includes the events of M≥4.7 in and near China and M≥6 all over the world. The ″Monthly Report″ is monthly compiled by the Ninth Section of Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

A Preliminary Study of the Types of Volcanic Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity at the Changbaishan Tianchi Volcano

INTRODUCTIONThe Changbaishan volcano is located in Jilin Province , along the border of China and NorthKorea .It isthelargest nature reservein China .Changbaishan belongstothe northeastern Asian activebelt in the eastern margin of the Euro-Asia plate . The Changbaishan volcano is a gigantic ,polygenetic ,central volcano,and has been active since Holocene .The early eruption started in thePliocene andformedthe basaltic shield. Duringthe middle and late Pleistocene ,the volcanic cone …     

Three Stages of Mesozoic Bimodal Igneous Rocks and Their Tectonic Implications on the Continental Margin of Southeastern China

There are large-scale Mesozoic bimodal igneous rock associations on the continental margin of southeastern China. They aroused extensive attention in the 1980s because of their specific tectonic implications, and have been found frequently during recent geological surveys. This paper reviews the studies of regional Mesozoic bimodal rocks, and concludes that they can be subdivided into three stages, i.e., the Early Jurassic (209-170 Ma, the first (Ⅰ) stage), the Late Jurassic-early Early Cretaceous (154-121 Ma, the second (Ⅱ) stage), and the late Early Cretaceous-Late Cretaceous (115-85 Ma, the third (Ⅲ) stage). These three stages of bimodal rocks were formed in different tectonic settings, and are important indicators for regional Mesozoic tectonic evolution.     

Research on the Characteristics of Large Earthquake Activity on the Active Tectonic Boundaries on the Chinese Mainland

INTRODUCTIONThe active blocks refer tothe geologic units that formedinlate Cenozoic (100 ~120 ka BP) andhave been highly active as fault zones since late Quaternary with relatively uniform motion styles(Zhang Guomin,et al .,2000 ;Zhang Peizhen,et al .,2003) .The active blocks are relativelyintactand have uniformmotion modalities ,their boundary zones (also called the active boundaries) are thelocalized or centralized zones of interactions and differential movement among the active block…     

Uniform Strike-Slip Rate along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System and Its Implications for Active Tectonics in Southeastern Tibet

Recent studies on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system suggest that the Late Quaternary strike-slip rate is approximately uniform along the entire length of the fault zone, about 15±2 mm/a. This approximately uniform strike slip rate strongly supports the clockwise rotation model of the southeastern Tibetan crust. By approximating the geometry of the arc-shaped Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system as a portion of a small circle on a spherical Earth, the 15±2 mm/a strike slip rate corresponds to clockwise rotation of the Southeastern Tibetan Block at the (5.2±0.7)×10-7 deg/a angular velocity around the pole (21°N, 88°E) relative to the Northeast Tibetan Block. The approximately uniform strike slip rate along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system also implies that the Longmenshan thrust zone is not active, or at least its activity has been very weak since the Late Quaternary. Moreover, the total offset along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system suggests that the lateral extrusion of the Southeastern Tibetan Block relative to Northeastern Tibetan Block is about 160 km and 200-240 km relative to the Tarim-North China block. This amount of lateral extrusion of the Tibetan crust should have accommodated about 13-24% convergence between India and Eurasia based on mass balance calculations. Assuming that the slip rate of 15±2 mm/a is constant throughout the entire history of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system, 11±1.5 Ma is needed for the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system to attain the 160 km of total offset. This implies that left-slip faulting on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system might start at 11±1.5 Ma.