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Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation
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In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by (1) fault locking, (2) self-acceleration or nucleation (possible foreshocks), (3) coseismic slip, and (4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-state-dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive (R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model. 相似文献
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地震预警中的单台综合定位方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于日本基盘强震观测网中某个地震事件首个地震台记录的震级在4级以上、震中距为30~100 km的强震数据,运用B-Δ法和Voronoi多边形法相结合的方法计算震中距。结果表明,B-Δ法和Voronoi多边形法相结合计算出的震中距与单用B-Δ法的计算结果相比,单台定位所用时间相同,但其定位精度明显提高。 相似文献
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Ke CHE Yi LIU Zhaonan CAI Dongxu YANG Haibo WANG Denghui JI Yang YANG Pucai WANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(8):1299-1315
Measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, CO2 (XCO2) and CO (XCO), were performed throughout 2019 at an urban site in Beijing using a compact Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) EM27/SUN. This data set is used to assess the characteristics of combustion-related CO2 emissions of urban Beijing by analyzing the correlated daily anomalies of XCO and XCO2 (e.g., ΔXCO and ΔXCO2). The EM27/SUN measurements were calibrated to a 125HR-FTS at the Xianghe station by an extra EM27/SUN instrument transferred between two sites. The ratio of ΔXCO over ΔXCO2 (ΔXCO:ΔXCO2) is used to estimate the combustion efficiency in the Beijing region. A high correlation coefficient (0.86) between ΔXCO and ΔXCO2 is observed. The CO:CO2 emission ratio estimated from inventories is higher than the observed ΔXCO:ΔXCO2 (10.46 ± 0.11 ppb ppm?1) by 42.54%–101.15%, indicating an underestimation in combustion efficiency in the inventories. Daily ΔXCO:ΔXCO2 are influenced by transportation governed by weather conditions, except for days in summer when the correlation is low due to the terrestrial biotic activity. By convolving the column footprint [ppm (μmol m–2 s–1)–1] generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting-X-Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport models (WRF-X-STILT) with two fossil-fuel emission inventories (the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) and the Peking University (PKU) inventory), the observed enhancements of CO2 and CO were used to evaluate the regional emissions. The CO2 emissions appear to be underestimated by 11% and 49% for the MEIC and PKU inventories, respectively, while CO emissions were overestimated by MEIC (30%) and PKU (35%) in the Beijing area. 相似文献
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本文综合探究了日平均气温、24h变温和气温日较差变化对缺血性心脑血管疾病发病人数的影响,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)与广义相加模型(GAM),分别探析了2015—2016年安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县日平均气温、24h变温和气温日较差与缺血性心脑血管住院病人数的暴露—反应关系。结果表明:气温日较差大于15℃缺血性心脑血管疾病相对风险剧烈升高,并呈现明显的即时效应,且其相对风险随滞后日增加和气温日较差增加达到叠加效应的峰值。当24h内气温下降7℃以上,缺血性心脑血管疾病相对风险开始明显上升,下降10℃以上呈现显著的即时效应。统计分析发现,两县在春季达到上述阈值概率最高,因此缺血性心脑血管疾病住院人数也在春季达到峰值,特别是雨水至清明节气时段为两县住院人数共同最高峰时段;值得注意的是,地处西部的锦屏县夏季缺血性心脑血管疾病发病人数也较多。此外,降温过程与节气转换也是导致两县缺血性心脑血管疾病住院人数阶段性增多的主要天气与气候因素。 相似文献
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根据电离层不规则体的产生会导致周围电子浓度发生起伏变化的原理,利用2007年COSMIC掩星系统的TEC数据,通过平滑滤波得到TEC的扰动值ΔTEC的变化,利用其研究F层不规则体的时空变化特征.统计结果表明:扰动较大的掩星事件主要发生在磁纬±20°之间和高纬地区,春季和秋季带状分布较为明显,不同经度地区较强扰动的掩星事件的分布也有不同特征;较强ΔTEC的掩星事件主要发生在地方时午夜前和午夜后两个时段,发生的高度主要在250~400km范围内.这些结果与已知的F层不规则体的时空分布特征较为一致,说明利用TEC的扰动量来分析电离层F层不规则体结构是可行的. 相似文献
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坦桑尼亚某金矿的磁力、激电异常特征 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
坦桑尼亚某金矿是与条带状含铁建造(BIF)有关的隐伏金矿床。为了查明该金矿脉的分布情况,开展了地面高精度磁力勘查。△T异常特征以负异常为主,负异常峰值大于正异常,正异常为伴生异常,总体上反映了BIF在平面上的延伸方向和构造方向特征;激电测深断面异常以视电阻率等值线“下凹”、视极化率等值线“上凸”为表现形式,二者分别反映了断面内的构造位置和BIF形态特征。本区磁力和激电异常对BIF体的隐伏特征反映的均很明显,依据二者的测量成果,进行钻孔定位,指导钻探施工,钻遇了目的层,收到了很好的效果。 相似文献