一个区域气候模式对ENSO衰减年夏季中国东部降水的模拟

The performance of the Climate version of the Regional Eta-coordinate Model (CREM), a regional climate model developed by State Key Laboratory of Nu- merical modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP), in simulating rainfall anomalies during the ENSO decaying summers from 1982 to 2002 was evaluated. The added value of rainfall simulation relative to reanalysis data and the sources of model bias were studied. Results showed that the model simulated rainfall anomalies moderately well. The model did well at capturing the above-normal rainfall along the Yangtze River valley (YRV) during El Nio decaying summers and the below and above-normal rainfall centers along the YRV and the Huaihe River valley (HRV), respectively, during La Nia decaying summers. These features were not evident in rainfall products derived from the reanalysis, indicating that rainfall simulation did add value. The main limitations of the model were that the simulated rainfall anomalies along the YRV were far stronger and weaker in magnitude than the observations during El Nio decaying summers and La Nia decaying summers, respectively. The stronger magnitude above-normal rainfall during El Nio decaying summers was due to a stronger northward transport of water vapor in the lower troposphere, mostly from moisture advection. An artificial, above-normal rainfall center was seen in the region north to 35°N, which was associated with stronger northward water vapor transport. Both lower tropospheric circulation bias and a wetter model atmosphere contributed to the bias caused by water vapor transport. There was a stronger southward water vapor transport from the southern boundary of the model during La Nia decaying summers;less remaining water vapor caused anomalously weaker rainfall in the model as compared to observations.