The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

好望角附近海域春季大风的几种主要形势分析

通过普查和分析，概括出了春季好望角附近海域三种主要大风出现时的模型图，并以一个月中逐日4次船舶测风报告为例，分析了好望角大风的某些主要特征。     

长江巨洪前期物理因子的配置

提出了长江巨洪前期物理因子配置的概念，在每一次巨洪发生之前，影响巨洪的主要物理因子之间一般都会表现出相似的特征，即出现一些固有的配置，这些配置正是长江发生巨洪的强信号，对长江巨洪的预测研究具有重要的指示作用。     

河南及邻区地震前中小地震活跃-平静的定量指标研究

以累计频度定量计算方法，分区讨论了河南及邻区1970年以来地震活动非线性度ZL值的时间进程曲线，系统计算了M≥5．0级地震前的ZL值，结果表明：开始出现活跃(平静)异常的时间集中在地震前1—2年，结束异常的时间在地震前一年内，集中于0—4个月。同时提出了异常的定量指标以及发震类型。     

地震视应力用于震后趋势快速判定的可能性

对多次强震的地震视应力进行了计算，将各次强震的地震视应力的高低与强震发生后的后续地震的强度进行联系，探索它们之间的关系，进而提出将地震视应力用于强震震后趋势预测的可能性。对多次强震的地震视应力与其后续地震强度的关系的分析结果表明，低视应力的强震的后续地震的强度一般较低，即低视应力的强震发生后，震区发生较强的后续地震的可能性较小。     

松辽盆地白垩系的密集段及海水进侵的新证

在总结松辽盆地白恶系层地层特征的基础上，阐述了密集段的地质学和地球物理学标志，经分析，大多数重要反射与密集段相关而并非是层序边界，根据扫描电镜分析结果，在密集段中首次发现了钙质超微化石，为区内白垩纪海水进侵的提供了新的证据，由稳定同位素分析，密集段形成了缺氧，相对可容纳空间最大及水体最深时期。     

Relocation of the October 9, 1505 Earthquake with M63/4

There have been 12 possible locations of the earthquakes occurring in the South Yellow Sea since 1505.In this paper,the location of the earthquake that occurred in 1505 has been determined by the collection of more historical data of the influenced field,referring the isoseismal data of earthquakes with the epicentral intensityⅨ and combining geophysical field data with tectonic condition,due to its great influence on seismic safety assessment of some significant engineering.     

Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.     

沈阳地区沙尘天气分析

本文总结了沈阳地区沙尘天气的时空分布特点，从天气条件、地表自然条件(沙源)两方面分析了沈阳地区沙尘天气的成因，总结了沈阳地区预报沙尘天气时应参考的5个因素。