Numerical calculations in the orbital determination of an artificial satellite for a long arc

Numerical methods are usually used for the computation of ephemerides with perturbations for the precise orbital determination of an artificial satellite. But their numerical stability will be encountered in a long arc. In this case the use the improved Encke special perturbation methods has been suggested. The results of this paper show that Encke's method does indeed have a certain effectiveness, but cannot yet completely resolve the numerical stability, and the more efficient method is to use the energy integral or its variational relation to control the growth of the along-track error in general numerical calculations so that the aim of stabilization can be achieved.     

Numerical Stabilization of Orbital Motion

Mainly, the author focuses on Baumgarte's method and its applications in satellite, asteroid, stellar and planetary problems. In the paper arguments are given for the use of energy relations for stabilization in the elliptical two-body problem. Stabilizing properties of Baumgarte's equations and others are discussed. A simple approach is proposed for stabilizing the equations of almost circular motion. By using Baumgarte's technique, the author derives stabilized equations of perturbed restricted three-body problem. It is shown experimentally that stabilization in the problems mentioned above can raise the accuracy of numerical integration by several orders.     

斜坡提砌石护面厚度的计算

介绍了斜坡式防波堤砌石护面中的插砌条石和干砌块石在波浪作用下的力学图式及作用机理 ,重点给出考虑摩擦力作用时的砌石块体稳定厚度的计算公式 ,并结合工程实例验证了公式的适用性     

未来不同气候变化情景下我国玉米产量的初步预测

玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,研究气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与CERES Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候（BS,1961—1990年）和A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案下2011—2100年我国雨养和灌溉玉米产量,初步预测了未来不同气候情景下玉米产量的变化状况。结果表明,如果保持现有的玉米生产状况,气候变化将导致我国玉米主产区的玉米单产普遍降低,总产下降,给玉米生产带来一定经济损失。A2气候变化情景对我国玉米产量的负面影响要大于B2情景。CO2肥效作用可以在一定程度上缓解这种负面影响,其缓解作用对雨养玉米更明显。未来全国玉米主产区的雨养和灌溉玉米的稳产风险及低产出现的概率将会增大,总产的年际波动更剧烈。由于目前研究结果是未考虑农业生产的适应措施而得出的,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

A Solution to the Problem of Predicting the Suitability of Silty–clayey Materials for Cement-stabilization

Major geotechnical problems in construction involving silty–clayey soils are due to their low strength, durability and high compressibility of soft soils, and the swell–shrink nature of the overconsolidated swelling soils. Confronted with these problems, a suitable ground improvement technique is needed, for deep excavations in soft clays, for stability, durability and deformation control. Cement-stabilization is one of the alternatives. An increase in strength and durability, reduction in deformability are the main aims of this method. Conventional cement-stabilization methods are used mainly for surface treatment. However, the use of cement has recently been extended to a greater depth in which cement columns were installed to act as a type of soil reinforcement (deep cement–soil mixing and cement jet grouting). In situ engineering properties of these silty–clayey soils are often variable and difficult to predict. For this reason cement-stabilization methods have a basic target to control the aforementioned engineering properties of these clays so that the properties of a silty–clayey soil become more like the properties of a soft rock such as clayey shale or lightly cemented sandstone. So cement-stabilization of these soils is essential to control their engineering properties and to predict their engineering behaviour for construction. In an effort to predict, classify and study the suitability of silty–clayey soils for cement-stabilization both slaking and unconfined compressive strength tests were carried out on clayey–sand mixtures consisted of two types of clays, kaolin and bentonite. Finally diagrams were prepared to study the variation of slaking and strength due to compaction, curing time and cement percentage and also to predict areas of efficient cement-stabilization.     

Evaluation of three waterborne polymers as stabilizers for sandy soil

This study reports on waterborne polymer emulsion systems that were used for structural modification of sandy soils. The first emulsion used was a styrene-acrylic, copolymer emulsion; the second and third were vinyl-acrylic, copolymer-based emulsions. Specimens were prepared by adding different polymer emulsions to the sand and water in prescribed amounts. The performance of the different emulsion systems as sand stabilizers was estimated through measurement of the hydraulic conductivity and compressive strength. Measurements of hydraulic conductivity were conducted in a flexible membrane test apparatus. The hydraulic conductivity for the three emulsions decreased at different rates, with an increase in polymer content up to 3 wt. (i.e., % by weight). Additional increase of polymer content did not introduce significant decrease in hydraulic conductivity, and, at 5 wt.%, the three emulsions had essentially the same effect. Measurements made on dry cylindrical specimens disclosed remarkable enhancement in the mechanical behavior of the system. The compressive strength and modulus of elasticity of the examined emulsions increased with a higher concentration of polymer. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) revealed that the reduction in the permeability and the improved mechanical properties can be attributed to three dominant structural changes: the development of interconnecting ties between the sand particles, the development of adhesion between neighboring sand particles in contact, and the covering of the sand particles with a thin polymer film.     

岩体断层基础加固与溶洞灌浆处理中的高压灌浆技术

阐述了在岩体断层加固和溶洞处理中的高压灌浆技术,分析了高压灌浆的作用机理,灌浆压力控制的方法,介绍了高压灌浆在水利枢纽工程上的应用效果。     

Intercomparison of Stratospheric Chemistry Models under Polar Vortex Conditions

Several stratospheric chemistry modules from box, 2-D or 3-D models, have been intercompared. The intercomparison was focused on the ozone loss and associated reactive species under the conditions found in the cold, wintertime Arctic and Antarctic vortices. Comparisons of both gas phase and heterogeneous chemistry modules show excellent agreement between the models under constrained conditions for photolysis and the microphysics of polar stratospheric clouds. While the mean integral ozone loss ranges from 4–80% for different 30–50 days long air parcel trajectories, the mean scatter of model results around these values is only about ±1.5%. In a case study, where the models employed their standard photolysis and microphysical schemes, the variation around the mean percentage ozone loss increases to about ±7%. This increased scatter of model results is mainly due to the different treatment of the PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemistry in the models, whereby the most unrealistic assumptions about PSC processes consequently lead to the least representative ozone chemistry. Furthermore, for this case study the model results for the ozone mixing ratios at different altitudes were compared with a measured ozone profile to investigate the extent to which models reproduce the stratospheric ozone losses. It was found that mainly in the height range of strong ozone depletion all models underestimate the ozone loss by about a factor of two. This finding corroborates earlier studies and implies a general deficiency in our understanding of the stratospheric ozone loss chemistry rather than a specific problem related to a particular model simulation.