全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1303篇 |
免费 | 200篇 |
国内免费 | 278篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 121篇 |
大气科学 | 304篇 |
地球物理 | 495篇 |
地质学 | 509篇 |
海洋学 | 169篇 |
天文学 | 15篇 |
综合类 | 71篇 |
自然地理 | 97篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 5篇 |
2023年 | 14篇 |
2022年 | 33篇 |
2021年 | 52篇 |
2020年 | 52篇 |
2019年 | 64篇 |
2018年 | 52篇 |
2017年 | 51篇 |
2016年 | 63篇 |
2015年 | 57篇 |
2014年 | 60篇 |
2013年 | 102篇 |
2012年 | 75篇 |
2011年 | 84篇 |
2010年 | 67篇 |
2009年 | 75篇 |
2008年 | 75篇 |
2007年 | 83篇 |
2006年 | 65篇 |
2005年 | 61篇 |
2004年 | 64篇 |
2003年 | 66篇 |
2002年 | 43篇 |
2001年 | 48篇 |
2000年 | 44篇 |
1999年 | 34篇 |
1998年 | 47篇 |
1997年 | 35篇 |
1996年 | 32篇 |
1995年 | 40篇 |
1994年 | 30篇 |
1993年 | 26篇 |
1992年 | 18篇 |
1991年 | 11篇 |
1990年 | 13篇 |
1989年 | 11篇 |
1988年 | 7篇 |
1987年 | 2篇 |
1986年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 7篇 |
1982年 | 1篇 |
1981年 | 3篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
1977年 | 5篇 |
1976年 | 1篇 |
1972年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1781条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
The distribution of nonlinear wave crests is examined on the basis of a theoretical probability density previously given elsewhere (J. Eng. Mech. 120 (1994) 1009). Certain errors contained in the original theoretical density are corrected, and the corresponding exceedance distribution is derived. The resulting theoretical forms of the probability density and exceedance distribution are then slightly simplified and compared with nonlinear wave data gathered under hurricane conditions. The results indicate that the proposed theoretical forms describe the observed distributions of large wave crests better than the Rayleigh law. However, the quantitative accuracy of the predictions is somewhat poor, as is typical of approximate theories based on Gram–Charlier-type expansions. 相似文献
2.
Adnan A. Basma Samer A. Barakat Maher T. Omar 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2003,21(3):225-242
The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and
the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This
is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this
case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing
design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order
Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length,
are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance
are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions
along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing
what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient
of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities
of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
3.
4.
数值预报产品在夏季持续高温预报中的释用 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
利用 1999~ 2 0 0 2年 6~ 8月 96~ 192h日本数值预报产品 85 0hPa气温与吉林省的日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温 (长春市 )资料 ,通过线性分析 ,找出了日本数值预报产品的 85 0hPa气温与吉林省地面日平均气温、阶段性高温及极端最高气温的对应关系 :吉林省 6~ 8月日平均气温在 96~ 192h的 85 0hPa日本数值预报长春站日平均值上加 6 6~ 4 1℃ ,6~ 8月的极端最高气温在相应的日本数值预报产品上加 9 3~ 13 0℃。 相似文献
5.
The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (MS=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (MS=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of MS=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of MS=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015. 相似文献
6.
The 17 March 2005 Kuzulu landslide (Sivas, Turkey) and landslide-susceptibility map of its near vicinity 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Landslides are common natural hazards in the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone of Turkey. Although seismic activity, heavy rainfall, channel incisions, and anthropogenic effects are commonly the main triggers of landslides, on March 17, 2005, a catastrophic large landslide in Sivas, northeastern of Turkey, the Kuzulu landslide, was triggered by snowmelt without any other precursor. The initial failure of the Kuzulu landslide was rotational. Following the rotational failure, the earth material in the zone of accumulation exhibited an extremely rapid flow caused by steep gradient and high water content. The Agnus Creek valley, where Kuzulu village is located, was filled by the earth-flow material and a landslide dam was formed on the upper part of Agnus Creek. The distance from the toe of the rotational failure down to the toe of the earth flow measured more than 1800 m, with about 12.5 million m3 of displaced earth material. The velocity of the Kuzulu landslide was extremely fast, approximately 6 m/s. The main purposes of this study are to describe the mechanism and the factors conditioning the Kuzulu landslide, to present its environmental impacts, and to produce landslide-susceptibility maps of the Kuzulu landslide area and its near vicinity. For this purpose, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared and geology, slope, aspect, elevation, topographic-wetness index and stream-power index were considered as conditioning factors. During the susceptibility analyses, the conditional probability approach was used and a landslide-susceptibility map was produced. The landslide-susceptibility map will help decision makers in site selection and the site-planning process. The map may also be accepted as a basis for landslide risk-management studies to be applied in the study area. 相似文献
7.
基于CMIP5多模式集合资料的中国气温和降水预估及概率分析 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
选用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)提供的30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式(AOGCMs)在典型浓度路径(RCPs)情景下气温和降水量的预估结果,采用扰动法,用站点观测资料作为气候背景场替代AOGCM模拟的气候平均,尝试校正气候预估结果的系统性偏差。通过集合方法,用概率的形式给出中国平均气温升高1 ℃,2 ℃和3 ℃以及降水量增加10%,20%和30%概率的空间分布,讨论了中国未来平均气温和降水量可能的变化。结果表明:经过扰动法处理后的气温和降水量预估集合保留了当前气候的局地信息。预估平均气温在中国均有上升,北方地区尤其是青藏高原地区变暖的程度大于南方地区,北方大部分地区平均气温升高的趋势为0.28 ℃/10a。在21世纪初,中国北方地区年平均气温升高1 ℃的可能性超过50%。到了21世纪末期,中国大部分地区平均气温升高2 ℃的可能性超过60%,新疆北部以及青藏高原南部地区气温升高3 ℃的可能性超过50%。预估中国降水量普遍增多,中国北方地区降水量增多的程度要明显大于江淮流域及其以南地区,尤其是西北地区降水量增多非常显著,降水量增多30%的可能性超过70%以上。 相似文献
8.
戴杰敏 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2003,22(1):47-55
改变统计域,矿化参数的概率分布型式和相关关系并不改变,形成自相似的无穷嵌套的层次结构图像。本以上第三系陆相砂岩铀矿床为例,从统计意义上说明矿化空间分布的自相似结构。 相似文献
9.
资阳地区震旦系古岩溶储层特征及测井评价 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
位于四川盆地的资阳地区在震旦系灯影组中发现了继威远震旦系气藏之后的又一大型气藏。区内7口钻井揭露的地层显示本区灯影组主要由一套震层状白云岩民,基质岩块具低孔低渗特点,有效的储集空间是由受古岩溶作用产生的溶蚀孔洞和构造作用产徨的裂缝共同构成,溶洞具有数量多,大洞多,发育集中的特点,裂缝具有成因,多期次,多产状的特点,对这套以缝洞型为玉的储层,由常规测井资料计算单一的物性参数(如孔隙度等)的方法难以其 相似文献
10.