A Case Study of Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar Signatures of Spatially Evolving Atmospheric Convection over the Western Atlantic Ocean

A case study of a particularly intense cold air outbreak over the northAtlantic Ocean extending from the northeast coast of the UnitedStates to the Gulf Stream is described. A RADARSAT satellite synthetic apertureradar (SAR) image of this outbreak dramatically illustrates the spatialevolution of convection. Nearly coincident images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very HighResolution Radiometer are used to compare many interesting features.In addition, National Weather Service rawinsonde data, National Data Buoy Center buoy data, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Coastal Mixing and Optics mooring data arepresented. We use these data to help describe the spatial evolution of the atmospheric boundary-layer processes involved in this outbreak.Rows of cellular convective clouds begin to appear some distance offshore and then slowly increase in horizontal diameter and wavelength in the downwind direction, with a subsequent jump in cloud diameter downwind of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW). The SAR image shows a similar evolution of sea-surface footprints of these boundary-layer features. This change in boundary-layer structure is attributed to corresponding changes in static stability. About 300 km south of the GSNW in the SAR image, an even larger jump in cell diameter appears and the cells becomenon-uniform with bright crescents and filled semi-circles on thedownwind sides of the cells. These are believed to be surface effectsof gust fronts induced by the mesoscale cellular convection and enhanced by the overall northwesterly flow.     

Roll Vortices and Boundary-Layer Development during a Cold Air Outbreak

The development of the boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the FramStrait is documented by aircraft measurements. The convection was organisedinto roll vortices with aspect ratios increasing from 2.9 near the ice edgeto more than 6 at 100 km further downstream. This increase coincides with anincrease of the latent heat release in the cloud layer. The stability parameter-zi/L varies from about zero at the ice edge to 30 at a distance of 200 kmdownstream over open water where the satellite picture still shows cloudstreets. The increase is mainly due to the deepening of the boundary layer.The turbulent vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes near the surface amountto 400 W m^-2 within a 300 km off-ice zone. 25% of the upward heat fluxin the subcloud layer is carried out by organised roll motions. Experimentswith a 2-dimensional non-hydrostatic model show a similar roll aspect ratio inthe first 50 km, but further downstream where condensational heating is moreimportant the modelled roll wavelengths are distinctly smaller than the observedones.     

新冠病毒疫情期间复工复产卫星遥感监测

本文利用美国新一代极轨卫星NPP搭载的VIIRS载荷数据反演获得的热点数据,以及美国NASA的Aura卫星搭载的OMI载荷的二氧化氮对流层柱浓度资料,对中国地区2020-01—02及2019年同期,以及抗击疫情期间和后期复工复产的情况进行监测。监测结果表明：（1）2020-02较1月份及2019年同期相比,工业企业的耗能水平却出现显著降低,NO₂浓度呈现显著下降趋势。（2）全国工业热源点数和分布范围及密度自2020-02-03正式复工后稳步提升。湖北省除武汉、黄石和鄂州地区仍可监测到少数热点外,其他地区2月份均未再监测到任何热点,也证明了湖北基本没有复工迹象。（3）疫情得到基本控制之后,京津冀地区工业热源点有显著增加,但新增区域一般仍处于低能耗水平。从全国大气NO₂柱浓度监测来看,复工开始前后与2019年同期相比,污染物浓度均呈现明显下降趋势,说明复工强度有限。（4）到3月初工业热源点及其能耗水平出现显著升高,中国大部分地区的热源企业虽已逐步复工生产,说明工业产能较2月有显著提升,但生产规模或产能并未完全恢复。     

基于历史数据的黄海浒苔爆发规模预测

依据黄海浒苔初始覆盖面积及最大覆盖面积的历史数据,选取温度、光强、降水3种对于浒苔生长扩散最重要的影响因子,本文提出并建立了基于BP神经网络确定转换系数R的浒苔覆盖面积预测模型,可在浒苔出现初期即实现对本年度浒苔最大覆盖面积的模拟预测,并通过历史数据进行验证。结果表明,所预测的浒苔最大爆发情况与真实情况相符,研究成果可为浒苔的应急准备工作争取更多的时间提供一定参考。     

‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 5⁰E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.     

热带气旋闪电活动特征研究综述

针对热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）闪电已有研究,首先从闪电活动分布特征、眼壁闪电爆发对TC强度和路径的指示、外雨带闪电活动与雨带对流结构的关系三个方面进行了总结;其次从动力一微物理方面对TC闪电的形成原因和特征机理进行了梳理;最后提出当前研究中存在的两个关键问题,并对后续研究内容进行了展望。基于地基和空基相结合的综合闪电探测得到的闪电属性特征参量,有望建立一个明确的、具有代表性的闪电活动一TC强度变化关系。利用沿海地区架设的三维闪电定位系统结合地基双偏振霄达,针对登陆台风强对流过程开展的综合观测研究,将有助于推进闪电观测资料在台风中小尺度强对流监测、预警和资料同化中的应用。     

Evidence of a Mixed-Layer Dynamics Contribution to the Entrainment Process

The internal thermal boundary layer developing over the Mediterranean during a cold-air outbreak associated with a Tramontane event has been studied by means of airborne lidar, in situ sensors, and a modelling approach that consisted of nesting the University of Washington (UW) planetary boundary-layer (PBL) model in an advective zero-order jump model. This approach bypasses some of the deficiencies associated with each model: the absence of the dynamics in the mixed layer for the zero-order jump model and the lack of an inversion at the PBL top for the UW PBL model. Particular attention is given to the parameterization of the entrainment flux at the PBL top. Values of the entrainment closure parameter derived with the model when matching PBL structure observations are much lower than those derived with standard zero-order jump models. They also are in good agreement with values measured in different meteorological situations by other studies. This improvement is a result of the introduction of turbulent kinetic energy production in the mixed layer.     

太湖蓝藻水华暴发机制与控制对策

湖泊蓝藻水华暴发由于引发水生态系统的灾害和饮用水安全风险而成为国内外研究的热点之一.太湖蓝藻水华暴发原因多样,其中蓝藻自身的特性是水华暴发的内因,太湖的地理、水文和气象特征为蓝藻水华暴发提供了合适的温度和水动力条件,是蓝藻水华暴发的外因,湖泊草-藻型生态系统的转变以及氮、磷营养盐的高负荷输入更利于蓝藻生长,湖泊氮、磷营养盐四重循环是蓝藻水华不断暴发的维持机制,蓝藻水华暴发与氮、磷营养盐浓度之间存在交互作用关系.太湖蓝藻水华的控制应以陆源控源截污为基础,增加湖泊营养盐输出为重点,实现疏堵有机结合,其中恢复水生植被,重建草-藻结合型水生态系统是太湖湖泊生态修复的关键所在.     

黑龙江省草地螟第三暴发周期气候特征及风险概率

1996年以来黑龙江省草地螟第三暴发周期持续至今,危害日益加重。以1959-2008年黑龙江省28个国家基本站的气象资料以及草地螟暴发期等资料为基础,分析了黑龙江省草地第三暴发周期的气候特征及风险概率。结果表明：近50 a来,黑龙江省年平均气温、年平均最低气温呈显著的上升趋势,通过0.001显著性检验,气温在1988年前后出现突变。其它要素,如降水量、降水日数、风速、日照时数均呈减少趋势,但只有年日照时数和年平均风速的减少趋势通过了显著性检验。哈尔滨草地螟始发日期与同期平均气温、日最高气温、最低气温、最小相对湿度关系密切,应该是本地越冬虫源春季羽化对气温、相对湿度敏感性较高;同时始见日期与最大风速的风向相关较为密切,可能是由于外地虫源对风向敏感性较高。通过对黑龙江省草地螟高峰期首日的风险概率分析,得到黑龙江省草地螟高峰期出现在5月最后一个候的风险概率为23.6%;出现在6月上旬的风险概率为36.6%;出现在6月中旬的风险概率为24%;出现在6月下旬的风险概率为14.4%。     

鄂尔多斯高原清代风灾

根据历史文献资料,利用数理统计等方法研究了鄂尔多斯高原清代的风灾。结果表明:鄂尔多斯高原清代发生风灾51次,平均每5.3 a发生1次。其中轻度风灾16次、中度风灾34次、大风灾1次,分别占风灾总数的31.3%、66.7%、2.0%。研究区清代风灾变化可分为3个阶段。第1阶段为1644-1783年,发生风灾24次,平均每5.8 a发生1次,为风灾频次居中的多发阶段。第2阶段为1784-1843年,发生风灾4次,平均每15 a发生1次,为风灾频次最少的低发阶段。第3阶段为1844-1911年,发生风灾23次,平均每3.0 a发生1次,为风灾频次最高的多发阶段。从清代早期到晚期,鄂尔多斯高原风灾频次呈上升趋势。鄂尔多斯高原清代有4次风灾爆发期,分别为公元1708-1710年、1851-1853年、1878-1884年和1908-1910年。在1878-1910年间有2次风灾爆发期,对应于中国东部和北半球的低温期。鄂尔多斯高原清代风灾有6 a左右的短周期和23 a左右的长周期,其中23 a的周期是第一主周期。该区风灾发生的主要原因是强冬季风的活动,在气候寒冷期或干旱期发生频率较高。