A multi‐level parallelized substructuring‐frontal solution for coupled thermo/hydro/mechanical problems in unsaturated soil

This paper proposes a multi‐level parallelized substructuring–frontal combined algorithm for the analysis of the problem of thermo/hydraulic/mechanical behaviour of unsaturated soil. Temperature, displacement, pore water pressure and pore air pressure are treated as the primary variables in a non‐linear analysis. Details are given firstly of the substructuring–frontal combined approach. The incorporation of the algorithm in a multi‐level parallel strategy is then discussed. The parallel processing can thus be carried out at different substructural levels. The method thus developed impacts, in a positive way, on both computer storage requirement and execution time. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

Problems with biogenic silica measurement in marginal seas

Surface sediment samples from the Bohai, Yellow Sea, and the Pacific were used to assess biogenic silica (BSi) content and to study uncertainties in BSi measurements. The contents of BSi in the Bohai and Yellow Sea are all less than 1%. The dissolution of BSi in sediments from the Bohai and Yellow Sea is very important to maintain high levels of silicate in the water column. The non-biogenic silica from clay minerals has an obvious effect on BSi of sediment samples in the Bohai and Yellow Sea with low BSi and high clay minerals. The solid to solution ratio was found to have a great influence on BSi measurement, which can induce uncertainties up to 75%. The effect of loss by sorption and centrifugation is negligible. Interlaboratory comparison of techniques for BSi measurement by the wet alkaline extraction technique of Mortlock and Froelich [Deep-Sea Res. 36 (1989) 1415-1426] with clay correction was suggested to give no significant differences. However, differences in sediment compositions and reagent to sample ratio may limit the application of the wet alkaline extraction method.     

基于非等间距模型的建筑物沉降预测方法研究

该文基于实测资料进行建筑物沉降预测。在灰色模型和泊松曲线模型理论的基础上,引入对非等间距数列进行变换处理的方法,从而建立了非等间距预测模型。结合建筑物沉降监测资料进行分析比较,结果表明,两种预测方法均能较好地反映建筑物的沉降趋势。     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

A response‐based decoupling criterion for multiply‐supported secondary systems

It is often infeasible to carry out coupled analyses of multiply‐supported secondary systems for earthquake excitations. ‘Approximate’ decoupled analyses are then resorted to, unless the response errors due to those are significantly high. This study proposes a decoupling criterion to identify such cases where these errors are likely to be larger than an acceptable level. The proposed criterion is based on the errors in the primary system response due to decoupling and has been obtained by assuming (i) the input excitation to be an ideal white noise process, (ii) cross‐modal correlation to be negligible, and (iii) the combined system to be classically damped. It uses the modal properties of the undamped combined system, and therefore, a perturbation approach has been formulated to determine the combined system properties in case of light to moderately heavy secondary systems. A numerical study has been carried out to illustrate the accuracy achieved with the proposed perturbation formulation. The proposed decoupling criterion has been validated with the help of two example primary‐secondary systems and four example excitation processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

汾河口傍河水源地激发补给量研究

该文阐述傍河水源地地下水资源构成和补给特性。利用野外试验与室内数值模拟相结合方法，分析汾河口傍河水源地可采水资源量，数值模型刻画黄河实际摆动边界，考虑潜水延迟给水和极端干旱气候条件等多种方案；利用环境同位素技术追踪傍河水源地开采条件下的河水激发补给过程和补给强度。研究表明，在渗透性较好的常年性河流旁建立的水源地，具有抵御极端气象、水文环境以丰补歉的能力，枯水年动用的含水层储存量。丰水年恢复性强。     

数字城市规划系统关键技术分析

分析了数字城市规划系统的业务需求，介绍了其基础数据更新、工作流、无纸化办公、历史空间信息管理等主要关键技术，并对其进行了讨论。     

Geoid determination using adapted reference field, seismic Moho depths and variable density contrast

 The traditional remove-restore technique for geoid computation suffers from two main drawbacks. The first is the assumption of an isostatic hypothesis to compute the compensation masses. The second is the double consideration of the effect of the topographic–isostatic masses within the data window through removing the reference field and the terrain reduction process. To overcome the first disadvantage, the seismic Moho depths, representing, more or less, the actual compensating masses, have been used with variable density anomalies computed by employing the topographic–isostatic mass balance principle. In order to avoid the double consideration of the effect of the topographic–isostatic masses within the data window, the effect of these masses for the used fixed data window, in terms of potential coefficients, has been subtracted from the reference field, yielding an adapted reference field. This adapted reference field has been used for the remove–restore technique. The necessary harmonic analysis of the topographic–isostatic potential using seismic Moho depths with variable density anomalies is given. A wide comparison among geoids computed by the adapted reference field with both the Airy–Heiskanen isostatic model and seismic Moho depths with variable density anomaly and a geoid computed by the traditional remove–restore technique is made. The results show that using seismic Moho depths with variable density anomaly along with the adapted reference field gives the best relative geoid accuracy compared to the GPS/levelling geoid. Received: 3 October 2001 / Accepted: 20 September 2002 Correspondence to: H.A. Abd-Elmotaal