Spatiotemporal characteristics of Qinghai Lake ice phenology between 2000 and 2016

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Lake ice phenology is considered a sensitive indicator of regional climate change. We utilized time series information of this kind extracted from a series of...     

Fuzzy Optimization Neural Network Approach for Ice Forecast in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River/Approche d'Optimisation Floue de Réseau de Neurones pour la Prévision de la Glace Dans le Tronçon de Mongolie Intérieure du Fleuve Jaune

Abstract

In ice forecasting, a key problem is the forecast of freeze-up and break-up dates. Ice-water mechanics and the principle of heat-exchange were mainly adopted in previous research. However, the mathematical models in these studies are complex and many parameters are required in relation to upstream and/or downstream gauging stations. Moreover, too many assumptions or simplifications for these parameters and constraints directly lead to low accuracy of the models and limitations as to their practical applications. This paper develops a fuzzy optimization neural network approach for the forecast of freeze-up date and break-up date. The Inner Mongolia reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River, China. Almost every year ice floods occur because of its special geographical location, hydrometeorological conditions and river course characteristics. Therefore, it is of particular importance for ice flood prevention to forecast freeze-up date and break-up date accurately. A case study in this region shows that the proposed methodology may allow obtaining useful results.     

封河预报数学模型研究

分析了河冰水力学、封河机理及影响封河的因素，并根据封河机理和影响封河的因素，建立了封河预报数学模型，以黄河内蒙古河段为例，率定封河预报数学模型的函数形式进行检验，证明预报模型精度高且使用方便。     

冰盖下水流垂线流速分布规律研究

河道中冰盖显著改变了水流流动结构.采用k-ε紊流模型建立了冰盖下水流流动垂向二维数值模型;根据量纲分析理论提出了流速分布规律的影响因素;针对各种因素的不同组合进行了数值计算,并对其流动特性如最大流速点位置、冰区及床面区平均流速等进行了分析研究;对冬季封冻河道的二点测流法精度进行了理论分析.研究结果表明,冰盖下水流的纵向流速在流动核心区并不遵循对数分布规律,同时揭示了冰盖底部与河床的相对粗糙比、河床相对粗糙度及雷诺数对流速分布规律的影响.     

Sea-Ice Freeze-up Forecasts with an Operational Ocean Observatory

ABSTRACT

The evaluation of a new method for forecasting freeze-up at the eastern end of the Northwest Passage, a principal gateway into the Canadian High Arctic, is presented. The technique uses real-time data from a novel ocean observatory that combines acoustic, cable, and satellite communications technology to provide year-round bihourly data. The basis for the predictive capability comes from a previous analysis of a decade-long time series of instrumented mooring data collected in the area, which demonstrated a strong link between late summer upper ocean salinity and the timing of freeze-up there. Using real-time data from the observatory and this previously established relationship, accurate predictions of the timing of freeze-up in 2012 and 2013 with lead times of four weeks and two weeks, respectively, are presented. This unique forecasting capability points to the enhanced value of real-time data systems when these systems are located where previously collected long time series monitoring has revealed key relationships in the marine environment.     

A detailed energy budget analysis of river supercooling and the importance of accurately quantifying net radiation to predict ice formation

River supercooling and ice formation is a regular occurrence throughout the winter in northern countries. The resulting frazil ice production can obstruct the flow through intakes along the river, causing major problems for hydropower and water treatment facilities, among others. Therefore, river ice modellers attempt to calculate the river energy budget and predict when supercooling will occur in order to anticipate and mitigate the effects of potential intake blockages. Despite this, very few energy budget studies have taken place during freeze-up, and none have specifically analysed individual supercooling events. To improve our understanding of the freeze-up energy budget detailed measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, short- and longwave radiation, and water temperature were made on the Dauphin River in Manitoba. During the river freeze-up period of late October to early November 2019, a total of six supercooling events were recorded. Analysis of the energy budget throughout the supercooling period revealed that the most significant heat source was net shortwave radiation, reaching up to 298 W/m², while the most significant heat loss was net longwave radiation, accounting for losses of up to 135 W/m². Longwave radiation was also the most significant heat flux overall during the individual supercooling events, accounting for up to 84% of the total heat flux irrespective of flux direction, highlighting the importance of properly quantifying this flux during energy budget calculations. Five different sensible (Q_h) and latent (Q_e) heat flux calculations were also compared, using the bulk aerodynamic method as the baseline. It was found that the Priestley and Taylor method most-closely matched the bulk aerodynamic method on a daily timescale with an average offset of 8.5 W/m² for Q_h and 10.1 W/m² for Q_e, while a Dalton-type equation provided by Webb and Zhang was the most similar on a sub-daily timescale with average offsets of 20.0 and 14.7 W/m² for Q_h and Q_e, respectively.     

All-Sky Surface Radiation and Clear-Sky Surface Energy Budgets: Summer to Freeze-Up in the Western Maritime Arctic

The 2009 ArcticNet expedition was a field campaign in the Amundsen Gulf–eastern Beaufort Sea region from mid-July to the beginning of November aboard the CCGS Amundsen that provided an opportunity to describe the all-sky surface radiation and the clear-sky surface energy budgets from summer to freeze-up in the data sparse western maritime Arctic. Because the fractional area of open water was generally larger than the fractional area of ice floes, the net radiation at the water surface controlled the radiation budget. Because the water albedo is much less than the albedo of the ice floes, the extent and duration of open water in summer is an important albedo feedback mechanism. From summer to freeze-up, the net all-sky shortwave radiation declined steadily as the solar angle lowered, while coincidently the net all-sky longwave radiation became increasingly negative. The all-sky net surface radiation switched from positive in summer to negative during the freeze-up period. From summer to freeze-up, both upward and downward turbulent heat fluxes occurred. In summer, a positive surface energy budget residual contributed to the melting of ice floes and/or to the warming of the Arctic Ocean's mixed layer. During the freeze-up period, with temperatures below approximately ?5°C, the residuals were mainly negative suggesting that heat loss from the ocean's mixed layer and heat released by the phase change of water were significant components of the energy budget's residual.     

冰封期达里诺尔湖同位素与营养盐分布特征及关系的定量分析

以内蒙古高原的达里诺尔湖为研究对象,对其在冰封期湖水不同相态下总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)浓度以及氢、氧同位素比值的分布特征和定量关系进行初步研究.结果表明:1)在冰封期,达里诺尔湖水体中营养盐的平均浓度相对较高,已远超过国家Ⅴ类水质标准.水体中TN、TP浓度均大于其在对应冰体中的浓度,均值分别是对应冰体中的9.91、3.11倍,说明低温冷冻过程对达里诺尔湖水体中的氮、磷具有浓缩效应.而通过与非冰封期的对比发现,湖冰的排氮效应强于磷.2)冰封期由于结冰过程中同位素热力学分馏明显,加之贡格尔河的入流补给,使得达里诺尔湖冰体中的氢、氧同位素比值远高于水体中的比值,同时,随冰层的加深,同位素逐渐偏重.3)冰封期达里诺尔湖水体及冰体中,同位素比值与营养盐浓度均呈显著负相关,水体的相关性较冰体要好,在冰层中,随着冰层的加深相关性越明显.利用SPSS统计软件分析发现同位素比值与营养盐浓度的相关关系显著,水体中最大相关系数达到0.991,冰体中达到0.988;氢同位素(D)与TN、TP浓度的关系式分别为:TN=-0.2825δD-6.0083和TP=-0.0805δD-1.2395,这为研究湖泊营养盐的时空变化规律提供新的手段和理论.     

2000-2016年青海湖湖冰物候特征变化

湖冰物候特征是气候变化的灵敏指示器。基于2000-2016年青海湖边界矢量数据,结合Terra MODIS和Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像及气象数据,利用RS和GIS技术综合分析青海湖湖冰物候特征变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：① 青海湖开始冻结、完全冻结、开始消融和完全消融的时间分别为12月中旬、1月上旬、3月中下旬和3月下旬至4月上旬,平均封冻期和平均完全封冻期为88 d和77 d,平均湖冰存在期和平均消融期为108 d和10 d。② 近16年间青海湖湖冰物候特征各时间节点变化呈现较大的差异性。湖泊开始冻结日期相对变化较小,完全冻结日期呈先提前后推迟的波动趋势,开始消融日期呈先推迟后提前的波动趋势,完全消融日期在2012-2016年呈明显提前趋势。青海湖封冻期在2000-2005年和2010-2016年呈缩短趋势,但减少速率慢于青藏高原腹地的湖泊。③ 青海湖冻结和消融的空间模式相同,即湖冰形成较早的区域则消融较早,且前者持续时间（18~31 d）整体上大于后者（7~20 d）,二者相差约10 d。④ 冬半年负积温大小是影响青海湖封冻期的关键要素,但风速和降水对青海湖湖冰的形成和消融亦发挥着重要作用。