CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

台风移速突变的诊断分析及路径预报

本文利用台风移动方程对作用在台风上的各力进行了诊断分析：主要力是气压梯度力和地转偏向力，二者同量级，其他各力约小１－３个量级；当台风加速移动时，气压梯度力小于地转编向力；减速移动时，气压梯度力大于地转偏向力。用预报方程计算得到的台风路径与实际台风路径在趋势上近于一致，预报误差约为２００ｋｍ。     

Impact cratering - a review,with special reference to the economic importance of impact structures and the Southern African impact crater record

Only since several decades has impact cratering been recognized as an important surface process on all planetary bodies in the Solar System. However, as the process has not yet been effectively introduced into geological curricula, it is necessary to inform a wider public about its importance for (i) planetary formation and (ii) evolution, (iii) the understanding of this process as a geological process, (iv) the terrestrial impact crater record and its limitations, and (v) the recognition criteria for terrestrial impact structures, as well as (vi) the need of improvement of the impact cratering record in the light of the potential danger of an impact catastrophe on this planet. It is, particularly for developing countries, of interest to examine the economic and educational-environmental potential of impact structures. That it is possible to carry out an effective, low-budget geological investigation of impact structures within a Second World environment is demonstrated by the discussion of the progress that has been made in recent years with regard to the Southern African impact crater record. Several recommendations on how to improve, on the one hand, the terrestrial impact crater record and, on the other, their general working situation by activation of workers in Developing Countries are discussed.     

Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.     

基于非线性理论的边坡稳定性评价模型

边坡稳定问题涉及到各类水利、港工、铁路和工业民用建筑工程。由于影响边坡稳定性的因素较多，而且其变形破坏机理复杂，边坡稳定性问题迄今仍然受到理论研究和工程实践的关注。本文采用非线性理论和方法来研究边坡的变形破坏机理，并建立稳定性评价模型。以分叉和突变理论引出突变级数来表征边坡的状态，并用神经网络从中获取稳定性评价和判断的知识，进而构建系统，并对各类边坡稳定状态做出分析评价。实例分析证明了该方法的有效性。     

滑坡演化的非线性动力学与突变分析

基于对任-连续函数, 至少在较小的邻域内可以用多项式任意逼近的数学理论, 运用改进的Backus广义线性反演理论, 以斜坡位移时间序列为基础, 反演建立了斜坡演化的非线性动力学模型。并利用自治梯度系统与突变模型的等价性, 通过变量代换得到标准的尖点突变模型。以黄茨及卧龙寺滑坡为例对滑坡的发展孕育过程进行分析, 结果表明:该非线性动力学模型不仅预测效果十分理想, 而且具有较高的自我调整适应能力; 斜坡临滑前都以突变特征值D的突降至零为前兆特征, 可作为-个具有物理意义的前兆指标。     

基于熵值法和突变级数法的泥石流易损度评价

泥石流易损度（危害性）评价是泥石流风险评估的重要组成部分.结合熵值法和突变理论的泥石流易损度评价方法，采用客观的熵值法判断指标间相对重要程度，利用突变级数法计算突变级数值进行评价，方法理论基础牢固且避免了确定指标权重值的弊端.以吉林省和龙市地质灾害调查与区划中的10条泥石流易损度评价实例进行验证，结果表明：数据获取、标准化和评价过程简便，易损度等级以轻度和中度为主的评价结果符合实际情况，该方法经过完善指标体系后可更加合理地应用于实际工作中.因此，基于熵值法和突变理论的泥石流易损度评价方法是可行的、可靠的.     

Assessment of recharge capacity potential of groundwater using comparative multi-criteria decision analysis approaches

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Groundwater resources have always been some of the most valuable resources of human settlements. Climate changes and ever-increasing water demands registered in...     

On the exact shape of the horizontal profile of a topographically rectified tidal flow

Abstract

Starting from the nonlinear shallow water equations of a homogeneous rotating fluid we derive the equation describing the evolution of vorticity by a fluctuating bottom topography of small amplitude, using a multiple scale expansion in a small parameter, which is the topographic length scale relative to the tidal wave length. The exact response functions of residual vorticity for a sinusoidal bottom topography are compared with those obtained by a primitive perturbation series and by harmonic truncation, showing the former to be invalid for small topographic length scales and the latter to be only a fair approximation for vorticity produced by planetary vortex stretching. In deriving the exact shape of the horizontal residual velocity profile at a step-like break in the bottom topography, it is shown that the Lagrangian profile only exists in a strip having the width of the amplitude of the tidal excursion at both sides of the break, and that it vanishes outside that interval. Moreover, in the limit of small amplitude topography at least, it vanishes altogether for the generation mechanism by means of planetary vortex stretching. The Eulerian profile is shown to extend over twice the interval of the Lagrangian profile both for production by vortex stretching and by differential bottom friction. These finite intervals over which the residual velocity profiles exist for a step-like topography are not reproduced by harmonic truncation of the basic equation. This method gives exponentially decaying profiles, indicating spurious horizontal diffusion of vorticity. In terms of orders of magnitude, the method of harmonic truncation is reliable for residual velocity produced by vortex stretching but it overestimates the residual velocity produced by differential bottom friction by a factor 2.