Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

桐柏县固庙—新集1：20万金银异常评价方法及效果

随着河南区域化探扫面工作的结束，异常评价是摆在我们面前的当务之急。近年来，随着地质工作的不断深入，我们在异常评价程序及方法上作了一些探索，下面以桐柏县固庙—新集１：２０万金银异常评价方法及效果为例，重点加以讨论。     

Magnetic anomalies in the canary basin and the Mesozoic evolution of the central North Atlantic

The data from a recent magnetic compilation by Verhoefet al. (1991) off west Africa were used in combination with data in the western Atlantic to review the Mesozoic plate kinematic evolution of the central North Atlantic. The magnetic profile data were analyzed to identify the M-series sea floor spreading anomalies on the African plate. Oceanic fracture zones were identified from magnetic anomalies and seismic and gravity measurements. The identified sea floor spreading anomalies on the African plate were combined with those on the North American plate to calculate reconstruction poles for this part of the central Atlantic. The total separation poles derived in this paper describe a smooth curve, suggesting that the motion of the pole through time was continuous. Although the new sea floor spreading history differs only slightly from the one presented by Klitgord and Schouten (1986), it predicts smoother flowlines. On the other hand, the sea floor spreading history as depicted by the flowlines for the eastern central Atlantic deviates substantially from that of Sundvik and Larson (1988). A revised spreading history is also presented for the Cretaceous Magnetic Quiet Zone, where large changes in spreading direction occurred, that can not be resolved when fitting magnetic isochrons only, but which are evident from fracture zone traces and directions of sea floor spreading topography.Deceased 11 November 1991     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Water and sediment outbursts from advanced Franz Josef Glacier,New Zealand

The Franz Josef Glacier, Westland, New Zealand, has a history of catastrophic sediment‐laden outburst ?oods associated with extreme rainfall events when the glacier toe is advanced over its own sediments. Consideration of these events and inspection of recent sediment deposits suggest that there are three distinct modes of outburst. The ?rst is associated with fans fed by over?ow along the glacier margin. As the glacier has advanced across its own fore?eld gravels, it is inferred that the primary drainage conduit has developed a reach of negative slope. In high ?ows massive boulders can block the conduit, trapping lesser clasts. The resulting backup of water causes over?ows through marginal moulins, producing the fan type of deposit. The second type of outburst deposits massive imbricated boulders at a greater or lesser distance from the glacier portal. In this case, pressure buildup drives the blockage out of the portal where the boulders deposit. Smaller materials are generally carried away. The third type consists of very shallow ?ows, and produces massive gravel deposits of uncertain provenance. In this condition, the excess pressure in the conduit results in slight uplift of the glacier and widespread discharge of water and sediment below the glacier snout; gravels and smaller sediments are laid down in a massive deposit across the fore?eld. The massive, boulder‐veneered deposit from the December 1995 outburst is interpreted in the light of the above mechanisms as a hyperconcentrated ?ow deposit from hydraulic jacking, overlain by boulders emplaced by a subsequent conduit outburst. A possible association of outbursts with the present advanced position of the glacier is suggested. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

福建省干旱概况及夏旱期间人工增雨条件分析

对福建省干旱的成因和干旱的环流形势进行了探讨,着重分析了夏旱期间人工增雨作业的天气形势、云状、回波特征及云顶温度等条件,结果表明福建省干旱的形成与大型环流形势、地形、地貌及土壤植被条件有关;平均而言,闽东南沿海干旱多于内陆地区;西太平洋副热带高压是夏季致旱的主要天气系统;夏季,西风槽前型、台风外围影响型、副热带辐合带型是进行人工增雨作业的有利天气形势,Sc、Cb、Cu云都有一定的人工增雨作业条件,其中降水时长1～5 h,过程雨量1.0～5.0 mm的云是旱季作业比较适合的作业云.这些结果为开展人工增雨作业提供理论依据,达到解除或缓解干旱的目的.     

月降水量的神经网络混合预报模型研究

以均生函数表征预报量自身周期变化，结合500hPa月平均高度场和月平均海温场预报因子，采用神经网络方法建立了一种新的短期气候预报模型。分别以广西桂北、桂中和桂南6月降水量作为预报对象进行预报试验，结果表明，这种新的预报方法比均生函数回归预报模型及高度场、海温场预报因子的回归预报模型，具有更好的物理基础和预报能力。