关于t-模的生成

讨论了概率度量空间中ｔ－模生成的概率意义。对构造ｔ－模提供了具体方法，并以实例介绍了这种构造方法。     

A geological and geotechnical investigation of the settlement area of Zümrüt Building (Konya, Turkey) which caused 92 fatalities due to its collapse

This study examines the local geological conditions and soil structure as possible causes of the collapse of the Zümrüt Building 2 February 2004. This catastrophe resulted in 92 fatalities and 35 injuries. This study also examines other views which claim weak soil structure, elastic and consolidation settlement of soil and excessive groundwater extraction as well as subsidence resulting from the underground silt erosion as possible factors. Zümrüt Building was constructed on normally consolidated, low plasticity clay. The underground water table was 30 m in depth. The internal friction angle of soil was 8°–30°, its cohesion was between 34 and 127 kN/m² and standard penetration test numbers varied between 11 and 50. The underground water level beneath Zümrüt Building had risen 4.5 m since its construction. Therefore the claim that subsidence resulting from the decrease of underground water level contributed to the collapse is incorrect. Secondly the settlement, resulting from the filling up of the pores created by the silt receding with the underground water, was 4.4 mm in total, and attributing this as the primary cause of the collapse is also incorrect. Soil properties, in situ and laboratory test results showed that the existing and/or expected settlement and the differential ground settlement in the Zümrüt building vicinity had the potential to cause structural damage. The tensile stresses caused by differential settlements recorded here are thought to be an indicator, but not the main cause contributing to the collapse of the building. The Zümrüt Building collapse was due to several compounding mistakes during the construction phase. These were geotechnical and other project faults and the use of low quality construction materials. The resulting catastrophe caused 92 fatalities, 35 injuries and a material loss of approximately US$7 million.     

海洋声层析的基本原理和应用

从射线声学和简正波声学的角度，概述了海洋声层析的基本理论，包括射线走时反演、简正波走时反演、简正波相位反演和简正波水平折射层析。海洋声层析以反演海水温度和流速为基础。还总结了声层析在海洋学研究中的应用。     

Wintertime nutrients in the North Atlantic—new approaches and implications for new production estimates

Observations of wintertime nutrient concentrations in surface waters are scarce in the temperate and subarctic North Atlantic Ocean. Three new methods of their estimation from spring or early summer observations are described and evaluated. The methods make use of a priori knowledge of the vertical distribution of oxygen saturation and empirical relationships between nutrient concentrations and oxygen saturation. A south–north increase in surface water winter nutrient concentration is observed. Winter nitrate concentrations range from very low levels of about 0.5 μmol dm⁻³ at 33°N to about 13.5 μmol dm⁻³ at 60°N. Previous estimates of winter nitrate concentrations have been overestimates by up to 50%. At the Biotrans Site (47°N, 20°W), a typical station in the temperate Northeast Atlantic, a mean winter nitrate concentration of 8 μmol dm⁻³ is estimated, compared to recently published values between 11 and 12.5 μmol dm⁻³. It is shown that most of the difference is due to a contribution of remineralised nitrate that had not been recognized in previous winter nutrient estimates. Mesoscale variation of wintertime nitrate concentrations at Biotrans are moderate (less than ±15% of the regional mean value of about 8 μmol dm⁻³). Interannual variation of the regional mean is small, too. In the available dataset, there was only 1 year with a significantly lower regional mean winter nitrate concentration (7 μmol dm⁻³), presumably due to restricted deep mixing during an atypically warm winter. The significance of winter nitrate estimates for the assessment of spring-bloom new production and the interpretation of bloom dynamics is evaluated. Applying estimates of wintertime nitrate concentrations of this study, it is found that pre-bloom new production (0.275 mol N m⁻²) at Biotrans almost equals spring-bloom new production (0.3 mol N m⁻²). Using previous estimates of wintertime nitrate yields unrealistically high estimates of pre-bloom new production (1.21–1.79 mol N m⁻²) which are inconsistent with observed levels of primary production and the seasonal development of biomass.     

Regional yield estimation for winter wheat with MODIS-NDVI data in Shandong, China

The significance of crop yield estimation is well known in agricultural management and policy development at regional and national levels. The primary objective of this study was to test the suitability of the method, depending on predicted crop production, to estimate crop yield with a MODIS-NDVI-based model on a regional scale. In this paper, MODIS-NDVI data, with a 250 m resolution, was used to estimate the winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in one of the main winter-wheat-growing regions. Our study region is located in Jining, Shandong Province. In order to improve the quality of remote sensing data and the accuracy of yield prediction, especially to eliminate the cloud-contaminated data and abnormal data in the MODIS-NDVI series, the Savitzky–Golay filter was applied to smooth the 10-day NDVI data. The spatial accumulation of NDVI at the county level was used to test its relationship with winter wheat production in the study area. A linear regressive relationship between the spatial accumulation of NDVI and the production of winter wheat was established using a stepwise regression method. The average yield was derived from predicted production divided by the growing acreage of winter wheat on a county level. Finally, the results were validated by the ground survey data, and the errors were compared with the errors of agro-climate models. The results showed that the relative errors of the predicted yield using MODIS-NDVI are between −4.62% and 5.40% and that whole RMSE was 214.16 kg ha⁻¹ lower than the RMSE (233.35 kg ha⁻¹) of agro-climate models in this study region. A good predicted yield data of winter wheat could be got about 40 days ahead of harvest time, i.e. at the booting-heading stage of winter wheat. The method suggested in this paper was good for predicting regional winter wheat production and yield estimation.     

The Meso-Cenozoic thermo-tectonic evolution of the Eastern Pyrenees: an <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar fission track and (U–Th)/He thermochronological study of the Canigou and Mont-Louis massifs

Vertical displacements on the SW–NE Têt fault (Eastern Pyrenees Axial Zone, France), which separates the Variscan Canigou-Carança and Mont-Louis massifs, were constrained using a thermochronologic multi-method approach. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar data from the granitic Mont-Louis massif record its Variscan cooling history and reveal no ages younger than Early Cretaceous, while the Canigou-Carança gneiss massif records systematically younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages. These younger ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages in the Canigou-Carança gneiss massif are the result of partial to total rejuvenation of argon isotopic systems related to a thermal flow coeval with the Cretaceous HT-BP metamorphism in the North Pyrenean Zone. Only the deepest rocks from the Canigou-Carança suffered this extensive Mid-Cretaceous thermal overprint probably due to differential burial around 4 km at that time. The post Mid-Cretaceous vertical displacements along the Têt fault are recorded by “low” temperature thermochronology using K-feldspar ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar, zircon and apatite fission track and (U–Th)/He datings. The Mont-Louis granite samples experienced a long period of protracted cooling reflecting a lack of thermo-tectonic activity in this area from Late Palaeozoic to Early Cenozoic, followed by cooling from 55–60 Ma to Late Eocene at a mean rate of 15–20°C/Ma in the final stage. This cooling stage corresponds to Têt fault reactivation with a reversed component, promoting exhumation of the Mont-Louis roof zone contemporaneously with the south-vergent Pyrenean thrusting. In the Canigou-Carança massif, the main cooling event occurred from 32 to 18 Ma at a maximum rate of 30°C/Ma during Early Oligocene followed by a more moderate rate of 3°C/Ma from Late Oligocene to Early Burdigalian, coeval with the normal reactivation of the Têt fault in brittle conditions that accommodated the final exhumation of the massif during the opening of the Gulf of Lion.     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Cretaceous isochron ages from K–Ar and Ar / Ar dating of eclogitic rocks in the Tso Morari Complex, western Himalaya, India

The Tso Morari Complex, which is thought to be originally the margin of the Indian continent, is composed of pelitic gneisses and schists including mafic rock lenses (eclogites and basic schists). Eclogites studied here have the mineral assemblage Grt + Omp + Ca-Amp + Zo + Phn + Pg + Qtz + Rt. They also have coesite pseudomorph in garnet and quartz rods in omphacite, suggesting a record of ultrahigh-pressure metamorphism. They occur only in the cores of meter-scale mafic rock lenses intercalated with the pelitic schists. Small mafic lenses and the rim parts of large lenses have been strongly deformed to form the foliation parallel to that of the pelitic schists and show the mineral assemblages of upper greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism. The garnet–omphacite thermometry and the univariant reaction relations for jadeite formation give 13–21 kbar at 600 °C and 16–18 kbar at 750 °C for the eclogite formation using the jadeite content of clinopyroxene (X_Jd = 0.48).

Phengites in pelitic schists show variable Si / Al and Na / K ratios among grains as well as within single grains, and give K–Ar ages of 50–87 Ma. The pelitic schist with paragonite and phengite yielded K–Ar ages of 83.5 Ma (K = 4.9 wt.%) for paragonite–phengite mixture and 85.3 Ma (K = 7.8 wt.%) for phengite and an isochron age of 91 ± 13 Ma from the two dataset. The eclogite gives a plateau age of 132 Ma in Ar/Ar step-heating analyses using single phengite grain and an inverse isochron age of 130 ± 39 Ma with an initial ⁴⁰Ar / ³⁶Ar ratio of 434 ± 90 in Ar/Ar spot analyses of phengites and paragonites. The Cretaceous isochron ages are interpreted to represent the timing of early stage of exhumation of the eclogitic rocks assuming revised high closure temperature (500 °C) for phengite K–Ar system. The phengites in pelitic schists have experienced retrograde reaction which modified their chemistry during intense deformation associated with the exhumation of these rocks with the release of significant radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar from the crystals. The argon release took place in the schists that experienced the retrogression to upper greenschist facies metamorphisms from the eclogite facies conditions.     

近地层O3和CO2浓度变化对冬小麦影响的数值模拟：Ⅱ模拟结果和分析

针对CO2和O3浓度变化对冬小麦影响,改进了农田生态系统碳氮生物化学模型(DNDC),并利用模型模拟了O3和CO2浓度变化对冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响,检验了模型的模拟效果.通过对原DNDC模型适用性的调整,使之适用于固城站,为进一步改进作物模型打下了可靠的基础.通过试验资料验证表明,模型较好地反映了O3和CO2浓度变化对冬小麦生长发育和产量形成的影响.通过敏感性分析得出,模型对温度变化反映灵敏;在CO2浓度倍增情况下,O3浓度变化对冬小麦的复合影响分析看出,一定浓度范围内,CO2可缓解O3对作物影响的负效应,O3对CO2带来的正效应有削弱作用.