Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

Systematic marine conservation planning in data-poor regions: Socioeconomic data is essential

Systematic planning for conservation is highly regarded but relies on spatially explicit data that are lacking in many areas of conservation concern. The decision support tool Marxan is applied to a reef system in the central Philippines where 30 marine protected areas (MPAs) have been established in communities without much use of biophysical data. The intent was to explore how Marxan might assist with the legally required expansion to protect 15% of marine waters, and how existing MPAs might affect that process. Results show that biophysical information alone did not provide much guidance in identifying patterns of conservation importance in areas where the data are poor. Socioeconomic data were needed to distinguish among possible areas for protection; but here, as elsewhere in marine environments, the availability of such data was very limited. In the final analysis, local knowledge and integrated understanding of socioeconomic realities may offer the best spatially explicit information. The 30 existing MPAs, which encompassed a small proportion of the reef system, did not limit future options in developing a suite of MPAs on a broader scale. Rather, they appeared to generate the support for MPAs that is obligatory for any larger zoning effort. In summary, establishing MPAs based on community-driven criteria has biological and social value, but efforts should be made to collect ecological and socioeconomic data to guide the continued creation of MPAs.     

The importance of place: Unraveling the vulnerability of fisherman livelihoods to the impact of marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) hold great promise as an effective conservation tool, but the potential negative socioeconomic impacts of MPAs remain poorly understood. Indeed, little work has been done to advance the frameworks and methods needed to assess, measure, and communicate the potential negative socioeconomic impact of MPAs and incorporate this information in MPA planning and management efforts. To address this gap, we test a vulnerability assessment termed the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that is designed to measure the relative potential impact a proposed MPA network may have upon fisherman livelihoods. To test the LVI, specifically we ask, how does the vulnerability of fishermen to the impact of MPAs differ across place? We explore this question through two core areas of inquiry surrounding the study of vulnerability assessments: 1) Ranking and comparing vulnerability and 2) Explaining attributes of vulnerability. Through this study we demonstrate how the historical and current conditions fishermen experience in a given place shape vulnerability levels in various ways. Variability in the attributes of a particular place such as weather conditions, the size of fishing areas, availability of alternative fisheries, and changes in kelp cover contribute inherently as measures of vulnerability but they also shape fishermen perceptions of what are important measures of vulnerability. Secondly, counter to existing notions, the use of weights in vulnerability assessments may not significantly impact vulnerability scores and ranking. Together these findings emphasize the need to test vulnerability assessments against actual experienced impact or harm across geographies and groups of fishermen towards an informed refinement of vulnerability assessments. We emphasize that the particularities of place are critical to understand, to appropriately assess and thus to effectively mitigate vulnerability in order to promote the future well being of fisherman livelihoods.     

Scale effects in food environment research: Implications from assessing socioeconomic dimensions of supermarket accessibility in an eight-county region of South Carolina

Choice of neighborhood scale affects associations between environmental attributes and health-related outcomes. This phenomenon, a part of the modifiable areal unit problem, has been described fully in geography but not as it relates to food environment research. Using two administrative-based geographic boundaries (census tracts and block groups), supermarket geographic measures (density, cumulative opportunity and distance to nearest) were created to examine differences by scale and associations between three common U.S. Census–based socioeconomic status (SES) characteristics (median household income, percentage of population living below poverty and percentage of population with at least a high school education) and a summary neighborhood SES z-score in an eight-county region of South Carolina. General linear mixed-models were used. Overall, both supermarket density and cumulative opportunity were higher when using census tract boundaries compared to block groups. In analytic models, higher median household income was significantly associated with lower neighborhood supermarket density and lower cumulative opportunity using either the census tract or block group boundaries, and neighborhood poverty was positively associated with supermarket density and cumulative opportunity. Both median household income and percent high school education were positively associated with distance to nearest supermarket using either boundary definition, whereas neighborhood poverty had an inverse association. Findings from this study support the premise that supermarket measures can differ by choice of geographic scale and can influence associations between measures. Researchers should consider the most appropriate geographic scale carefully when conducting food environment studies.     

Using input–output methods to assess the effects of fishing and aquaculture on a regional economy: The case of Galicia,Spain

This paper uses an input–output model to quantify the socioeconomic impact of fishing and aquaculture on Galicia, one of Spain's most important maritime regions. Results indicate that the carryover effects of these production activities are important for Galicia's economy because they contribute not only to job creation but also to possibilities for obtaining income in other economic sectors. These sectors’ combined production in 2013 was almost a million euros, and that production was estimated to account for nearly 2% of the regional economy's value added and for more than 17,000 full-time jobs. Together these contributions amounted to some €1.7 billion in production and €975 million in value added to other Galician economic activities. At the same time, fishing and aquaculture were responsible for creating the equivalent of more than 14,000 full-time jobs in other economic activities.     

Socioeconomic characteristics and crash injury exposure: A case study in Florida using two-step floating catchment area method

The objective of this study is to investigate the exposure of different population groups to severe injury crash hotspots using an empirical-Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (EG-2SFCA) method based on roadway network distances and a socioeconomic-based weighting approach. This is performed by developing a special form of a crash-to-population ratio index that incorporates the severe crash hotspots relative to the locations of populations they might impact. While identifying these hotspots, four different age groups are considered: 17 and younger, 18 to 21, 22 to 64 and 65 and older. For each age group, severe crash hotspots are identified based on the roadway network and the number of severely injured crash occupants that belong to the specific age group. Using these age-specific crash hotspots and the EG-2SFCA method, communities that were exposed to elevated crash injury risk (crash injury exposure) have been identified. Furthermore, from a residential perspective, a socioeconomic analysis is conducted in order to develop a socioeconomics-based crash injury exposure measure. This measure assesses the exposure of different socioeconomic groups to the risk of being injured. Results demonstrated by applying this measure in the Tampa Bay region, FL show that different population groups are under varying risk of being injured depending on their residential location. The developed approach has the potential to be a social fairness measure able to be applied by agencies, which could enhance the well-being of communities that are subject to elevated injury risk.     

Emergence of multi-stakeholder-driven cooperative research in the Northwest Atlantic: The case of the Northeast Consortium

The past 50 years in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank is marked by a growing divide between fishermen, scientists, and managers. This paper tracks the scientific, regulatory, social and political evolution of fisheries management in the Northwest Atlantic, culminating in a distrustful and adversarial climate, a convergence of diverse policy needs, and the emergence of a multi-stakeholder cooperative research program—the Northeast Consortium. The institutional structure and activities of the Northeast Consortium are presented and we conclude with a discussion of the role of cooperative research in building mutual understanding and respect, trust and scientific legitimacy.     

Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment

Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors.     

基于共享社会经济路径的中国经济发展趋势及其影响要素分析

基于最新的经济和人口普查及逐年统计年鉴,采用柯布?道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)经济预测模型,分析了共享社会经济路径(SSPs)框架下中国“全面二孩”政策后2010—2100年经济发展趋势,并解析了劳动投入量、资本投入量和全要素生产率对经济发展的贡献率。研究发现：(1)不同的社会经济发展政策下,21世纪中国经济均呈增加趋势,GDP增速在2030年前基本维持在6%上下,但2030—2060年代迅速下降,2070年代起SSP1和SSP4路径下增幅低于0.5%,SSP2、SSP3和SSP5路径下增幅保持在0.5%~1.5%。(2)影响经济发展的三要素中,劳动投入量在SSP3路径下先减后增,于2060年代达到谷值;在其他路径下均先增后减,于2020年代达到峰值。资本投入量在SSP1路径下持续增加,2080年代起趋于平缓;其他路径下均呈持续增加趋势,但在SSP4路径下,在2060和2070年代有所下降。全要素生产率在所有路径下均呈增加趋势。(3)改革开放以来,资本投入量是影响我国经济增长最主要的因素。未来,SSP1和SSP2路径下,全要素生产率逐渐成为经济发展的主导因素;而SSP5路径下,资本投入量仍是影响经济发展的主要因素。     

冕宁县地震经济损失预测及社会经济影响分析

本文根据冕宁县的社会经济调查资料和建筑物群体震害预测结果,对未来地震引起的经济损失进行了预测,并对地震后可能引起的社会经济影响作了初步分析。