江南春雨的时空分布特征及其旱涝年环流差异

利用1979—2010年中国753站逐日降水资料,定义了江南春雨时间范围(12—27候)和空间范围(110~120°E,23~30°N),并通过EOF方法分析了江南春雨的时空分布特征,得到3个主要模态:全区一致型、南北反相型和东西反相型。在此基础上,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料合成分析了江南春雨的旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:江南春雨偏涝年,上游青藏高原东南侧的西南风增强,西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,有利于来自副高南侧的水汽与高原南侧的水汽汇合向江南地区输送,而江南地区的上升运动也明显加强,有利于江南地区降水的产生。进一步分析发现在春雨期涝年青藏高原的热源强度明显强于旱年,导致高原东南侧的绕流增强,进而有利于江南地区的降水,而旱年情况大致相反。此外,比较旱涝年西太平洋—东亚大陆之间的纬向海陆热力差异发现,涝年大约在第11候发生冷热源的反转,旱年则在第16候反转。涝年江南地区春雨期热源强度也明显强于旱年,进一步说明江南地区冷热源的反转以及增强对于江南地区的降水具有重要的作用,同时对于判定江南春雨的季风降水性质具有重要指示意义。     

MRI模式对华南春雨气候态及年际变率的模拟：不同模式分辨率的比较

本文利用日本气象研究所（MRI）参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的大气环流模式在高、中、低三种分辨率下的AMIP试验结果,评估了其对华南春雨气候态和年际变率的模拟能力,比较了不同分辨率的模拟结果。结果表明,三种不同水平分辨率（120 km、60 km和20 km）的模式均能再现北半球春季位于中国东南部的降水中心。相较于120 km模式,20 km模式能够更为合理地模拟出华南春雨位于南岭—武夷山脉的降水中心。水汽收支分析表明,60 km、20 km模式高估了水汽辐合,使得华南春雨的降水强度被高估。在年际变率方面,在三种分辨率下,模式均能较好地再现观测中El Ni?o衰减年春季的西北太平洋反气旋以及华南春雨降水正异常。较之120 km模式,60 km、20 km模式模拟的降水正异常的空间分布和强度更接近观测,原因是后者模拟的El Ni?o衰减年春季华南地区的水平水汽平流异常更接近观测。本研究表明,发展高分辨率气候模式是提高华南春雨的气候态和年际变率模拟水平的有效途径之一。     

Temporal Variations of the Spring Persistent Rains and South China Sea Sub-high and Their Correlations to the Circulation and Precipitation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

National Meteorological Information Center （NMIC） rainfall data and NCEP/NCAR daily circulation reanalysis data are employed to establish the onset-pentad time index of the spring persistent rains （SPR） and the decay-pentad time index of the South China Sea （SCS） sub-high. These indexes are used to study the relationship between the factors in SPR period and their relations to the circulation and precipitation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）. Results show that, the summer rainfall over southeastern China decreases when SPR onset is late. For then EASM strengthens and the cyclonic circulation around the Tibetan Plateau （TP） strengthens, which makes abnormal anti-cyclonic circulation （cyclonic convergent circulation weakens） appear over southeastern China. When the decay of SCS sub-high delays, abnormal flood prevails over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLYR） and to the south. That is mainly caused by EASM weakening while SCS sub-high strengthening, then the abnormal southwesterly over South China and the abnormal northerlies of anti-cyclonic circulation around the TP converge over the Yangtze Valley. The two indexes have high correlations with multivariate ENSO index （MEI） in March, indicating that the climate abnormity in East Asia is related to global climate abnormity tightly. The two time indexes are independent of each other, which is favorable for the prediction of the anomalies of the circulation and precipitation of EASM. From this point of view, we must take the global climate background into account when we analyze and predict the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation.     

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern China

The spring persistent rains (SPR) over southeastern China (SEC) is a synoptic and climatic phenomenon that is unique in East Asia. Su cient evidence proves that it results from the mechanical and thermal effects of the giant Tibetan Plateau (TP), but its temporal span and spatial distribution are not clear at present.A climatological analysis of the NCEP/NCAR circulation and sensible heat data shows that at the 13th pentad of the solar year (1st pentad of March) there are remarkable increases in the sensible heating over the main and southeastern part of the TP, the southwesterly velocity over the southeastern flank of the TP and SEC, and rainfall over SEC, indicating the onset of the SPR.However, after the 27th pentad of the solar year (3rd pentad of May), these variables, except for the sensible heating over the main part of the TP, decrease rapidly. The ridge line of the subtropical high in the mid-low troposphere over the South China Sea (SCS) slopes northward instead of southward as before. The rain belt center over SEC shifts to the SCS and the SCS monsoon breaks out, indicating the end of the SPR. Hence, it is reasonable to define the SPR temporal span from the 13th to 27th pentad of the solar year. Data analysis and numerical sensitivity experiments show that, although the warm and cold airs converge at about 30°N in the SPR period, the distribution and intensity of the SPR rain belt are obviously in influenced by the topography of the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains (NWM). The mountains can block and lift cold and warm airs, strengthening frontogenesis and rainfall. As a result, the axis of the SPR rain belt is superposed over that of the mountain range. Accordingly, the spatial distribution of the SPR extends over most of the SEC, more speci cally, to the south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (30°N), and to the east of 110°E.     

应用于海洋环境和海洋工程的光纤传感技术

随着海洋经济的高速发展,加强海洋国防安全、提高海洋资源开发能力和保护海洋生态环境作为相辅相成的三个方面日益受到重视。有效的传感检测技术是保证海洋安全、高效资源开发、防止污染、维持生态平衡、实时监测等方面至关重要的技术,也成为当前海洋领域内研究的热点。基于光纤传感器相比较于传统电传感器的独特优势,本文从海防及民生安全、海底自然灾害预测、海洋能源有效勘探、海洋工程安全监控,及海洋环境在线监测等几个方面阐述适用于海洋环境的光纤传感技术原理、系统及特点,为光纤传感技术在海洋中的大力推广起到一个抛砖引玉的作用。     

江南春雨雨日的变化及其与欧亚大陆积雪的联系

利用中国气象局提供的1960—2019年江南区站点观测逐日降水数据,分析了江南春雨不同持续时长雨日的变化及其与欧亚大陆积雪的联系。结果表明,江南春雨以持续5 d及以上的长持续降水为主,但降水日数下降趋势明显,导致长持续降水减少。利用奇异值分解法(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)发现,欧亚大陆3—5月积雪覆盖率与江南春雨雨日数有显著正相关关系。将(48°~59°N,90°~110°E)区域平均积雪覆盖率定义为积雪覆盖指数,通过指数与同期大气环流的回归分析发现,当积雪偏少时,我国中北部及西伯利亚地区500 hPa位势高度正异常,在江南区850 hPa风场和水汽通量场西南向负异常,导致江南春雨雨日数减少。合成分析进一步验证了积雪偏少会在江南区形成异常东北风抑制水汽输送至江南地区,不利于降水发生。     

Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM simulations

The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.     

Mechanism of the Spring Persistent Rains over southeastern China

The Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) in the areas to the south of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River or over southeastern China (SEC) is a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon in East Asia. This study reveals a possible mechanism responsible for the climatic cause of SPR formation through climatic mean data analysis and sensitive numerical model experiments. SEC is located at the down-stream of the southwesterly velocity center (SWVC) which lies on the southeastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a result, there are strong southwesterly wind velocity convergence and moisture con-vergence over SEC. This is the immediate climatic cause of SPR formation. In spring, the seasonal evolution of the southwesterly velocity consists with the surface sensible heating over southeastern TP, indicating that the formation of SPR is related to not only the southwesterly wind of mechanical de-flected flow of TP, but also the southwesterly wind of thermal-forced cyclonic low circulation. Sensitive numerical experiments demonstrate that, without TP, both SWVC and the SPR rain belt will disappear. The southwesterly wind velocity increases almost linearly with the amount of the total diabatic heating with TP rising. Therefore, SWVC is the result of the mechanical forcing and thermal forcing of TP. All these strongly suggest that the presence of TP plays a primary role in the climatic formation of SPR.