Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

水库地震主震发生时间的预测

水利工程对水库地震的抗震设防要求事先对水为地震进行预测。预测内容包括蓄水后诱发地震的危险性（可能性、）最大震级、最大震的地占紧及不库地震对场址地震动参数的影响。除主震时间的预测外，本文第一作者都曾提出过初步的预测方法。本文认为，水库地震前震波速比异常、非线性灰色模型以及前震系列回归等方法，是预测主震时间的有前途的方法。     

雅江地块的震兆分析与强震危险性探讨

分析了雅江地块的构造环境、地震活动和震兆异常，探讨2001年雅江6．0级地震、2002年新龙5．3级地震发生后雅江地块的强震趋势。重点对理塘-德巫断裂带，新龙、白玉、德格及贡觉一带地区的异常地震活动图像进行分析，认为该区存在强震填空的潜在危险性。     

湘南地区成矿规律及找矿预测

文章对湘南区带内各矿田找矿成果进行了归纳总结,并对其已有的多种地学成果信息进行了探索性研究,总结出了矿床地质特征、成矿系列类型、控矿因素及成矿模式,并大胆地进行了科学的预测定位,为湘南区带新一轮接替资源找矿提供新的认识和思路。     

MJO prediction skill,predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model

This study evaluates performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2). By using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, it is shown that the MJO prediction skill of BCC_AGCM2.2 extends to about 16–17 days before the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5 and the root-mean-square error increases to the level of the climatological prediction. The prediction skill showed a seasonal dependence, with the highest skill occurring in boreal autumn, and a phase dependence with higher skill for predictions initiated from phases 2–4. The results of the MJO predictability analysis showed that the upper bounds of the prediction skill can be extended to 26 days by using a single-member estimate, and to 42 days by using the ensemble-mean estimate, which also exhibited an initial amplitude and phase dependence. The observed relationship between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation was accurately reproduced by BCC_AGCM2.2 for most initial phases of the MJO, accompanied with the Rossby wave trains in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics driven by MJO convection forcing. Overall, BCC_AGCM2.2 displayed a significant ability to predict the MJO and its teleconnections without interacting with the ocean, which provided a useful tool for fully extracting the predictability source of subseasonal prediction.     

转兔防御素基因小球藻培养的营养模式研究

在250mL摇瓶中研究了光自养、异养、混合营养3种营养模式对转兔防御素基因(NP-1)小球藻(Chlorella)的生长、NP-1表达量、总蛋白质含量、pH、葡萄糖消耗以及光衰减等几个方面的影响。结果表明,异养培养为转NP-1基因小球藻的最适营养模式。在此基础上,采用5,15,30L生物反应器补料分批异养培养转NP-1基因小球藻,细胞质量浓度分别达到3.67,4.87,6.39g/L。     

Wave diffraction and near-trapping by a multi-column gravity-based structure

This paper is concerned with the diffraction of water waves by offshore structures, with the ultimate aim of proposing tools for guiding airgap design. The diffraction of monochromatic waves by an array of four bottom mounted cylinders and a gravity-based structure is studied in detail using linear and second order theory. The phenomenon of near-trapping is investigated, allowing guidelines for airgap design to be established. When contemplating airgap design, however, it is crucially important that consideration is given to the largest waves in a sea state. Therefore, in this study a design wave, called NewWave, is proposed as a realistic model for large ocean waves and is used as the incident wave field in the wave-structure diffraction analysis.     

经济预测模型在土地规划中的应用与分析

主要介绍土地规划时需用到的几种预测模型 ,具体阐述了几种模型的原理 ,并以抚州地区的总人口历史数据为例 ,进行实际的预测与分析 ,从而总结各种模型的优缺点 ,选择最合适的土地规划预测模型。