成都市冬季重污染日气象条件成因分析及预报

本文通过对成都10个重污染日进行天气学分析,将污染浓度与气象要素进行聚类、研究了重污染日形成原因及污染浓度与气象要素的关系。在此基础上,建立了SO_2、TSP日平均浓度分级预报方程。     

环太湖河道污染物负荷量的初步研究

根据１９８７－１９８８年环太湖河道水质，水量实测资料以及环湖主要河道的流量和水质的历史资料，结合平原水网地区的水情特征，提出了环太湖河道污染物负荷量的计算方法，并分析探讨了不同设计水情下环太湖河道污染物负荷量及其时空变化。结果表明，污染物负荷量与水情关系密切，枯水年的河道入湖污染物负荷量大于丰水年。环湖２２条主要河道的入湖污染物负荷量占全部河道入湖总量的７２％－９１％，且不同污染物入湖负荷量的分布     

Reducing fishing vessel fuel consumption and NOX emissions

There is a growing concern with the impact of marine operations on the environment. This requires reducing fuel consumption and vessel pollution during operation. On-board computers and satellite communications will enable the operator to reduce fuel consumption and NO_X emissions during vessel operations.This paper presents the results of a study on this problem and how such an on-board system could be implemented to reduce fuel consumption and engine NO_X emissions.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Monitoring volcanic hazard using eddy covariance at Solfatara volcano, Naples, Italy

An eddy covariance (EC) station was deployed at Solfatara crater, Italy, June 8–25, 2001 to assess if EC could reliably monitor CO₂ fluxes continuously at this site. Deployment at six different locations within the crater allowed areas of focused gas venting to be variably included in the measured flux. Turbulent (EC) fluxes calculated in 30-min averages varied between 950 and 4460 g CO₂ m⁻² d⁻¹; the highest measurements were made downwind of degassing pools. Comparing turbulent fluxes with chamber measurements of surface fluxes using footprint models in diffuse degassing regions yielded an average difference of 0% (±4%), indicating that EC measurements are representative of surface fluxes at this volcanic site. Similar comparisons made downwind of degassing pools yielded emission rates from 12 to 27 t CO₂ d⁻¹ for these features. Reliable EC measurements (i.e. measurements with sufficient and stationary turbulence) were obtained primarily during daytime hours (08:00 and 20:00 local time) when the wind speed exceeded 2 m s⁻¹. Daily average EC fluxes varied by ±50% and variations were likely correlated to changes in atmospheric pressure. Variations in CO₂ emissions due to volcanic processes at depth would have to be on the same order of magnitude as the measured diurnal variability in order to be useful in predicting volcanic hazard. First-order models of magma emplacement suggest that emissions could exceed this rate for reasonable assumptions of magma movement. EC therefore provides a useful method of monitoring volcanic hazard at Solfatara. Further, EC can monitor significantly larger areas than can be monitored by previous methods.     

Quantitative Evaluation of Water Deposited By Dew on Monuments

Samples of White and Green Carrara marble, and three types oflimestone and brick exposed in the field vertically and horizontally were used to evaluate condensationon monuments during clear sky nights. Experiments in a simulation chamber under controlledconditions led to a general equation for the actual amount of water deposited on a surface by dew.This is determined by: How much and for how long the surface temperature falls below the dew point,the moisture content in the air and the ventilation. On clear nights, the condensation on buildingstructures facing the sky may reach some 0.2 kg m^-2 (or 0.2 mm), whereas condensation on verticalsurfaces is very small. Computation of the seasonal trend of night-time condensationshowed that the maximum amount of water condensed per night occurs in the autumn, with the moreabundant concentration of moisture in the air. The total amount of water condensed per month isfound to be a maximum in the summer-autumn period. Morning condensationfor the thermal inertia of monuments is also relevant, and has been calculated to reach the same order of magnitude as thenocturnal dew. A detailed analysis of the temperature and mixing ratio profiles near a condensingsurface has shown two different situations. In still air, the two profiles follow an exponentiallaw and the thermal and the concentration layers lie within a few tens of millimetres. Inthe presence of turbulence, the thickness of these two layers is dramatically reduced. In still air, infront of a vertical, chilly surface, the deposition rate of air pollutants by thermophoresis and/orStefan flow is increased by 3 or 4 times in comparison with a horizontal surface. In the presence ofturbulence, the thickness of the thermal and concentration layers was dramatically reduced, makingthese two kinds of deposition much faster.     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.