国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。     

Effects of vehicle,diet and gender on the expression of PMP70- and CYP2K1/2M1-like proteins in the mummichog

The mummichog (Fundulus heteroclitus) has been shown to be responsive to peroxisome proliferating agents (PPAs). Peroxisomes function as important sites for fatty acid beta-oxidation. Peroxisome proliferation by PPAs or starvation can lead to changes in the size and number of peroxisomes and the expression of omega-hydroxylases (CYP2K1/2M1 in rainbow trout). Mummichogs were subjected to 96 h fasting or 96 h recovery from fasting. Expression of PMP70- and CYP2K1/2M1-like proteins in vehicle-treated or non-treated controls was compared in both males and females. Fasting and vehicle produced decreases in PMP70- and CYP2K1/2M1-like proteins in both males and females. In reproductive females, decreases due to fasting and vehicle treatment were greater than in female fish that were not gravid. Recovery from fasting resulted in levels of CYP2K1/2M1 near control levels in males while in recovered females, about 2-fold higher levels compared to controls were noted. These results indicate that gender, reproductive status and diet can produce changes in the expressed levels of peroxisomal PMP70 and microsomal CYP2K1/2M1-like proteins in the mummichog.     

Efficiency of Severe Recorded Rainstorms over Maharashtra State

12 severe rainstorms have been experienced by different meteorological sub-divisions of Maharashtra State during the last 100-year period from 1891-1990. For each of the rainstorms efficiency factors (i.e. P/ M ratios) were worked out for maximum one-day duration and for three standard areas of 1000, 5000, and 10,000 km2. Comparison of these ratios with the past has shown that the most efficient rainstorm over Maharashtra was the rainstorm of June, 1908 over the Vidarbha region whose full DAD data as well as isohyetal pattern have been given.     

PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections

Abstract

Mixed-regime Andean basins present a complex scenario for flood analysis. In this study, we propose a methodology for incorporating orographic effects influenced by mountainous barriers in the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation method in sparsely-gauged basins. The proposed methodology is applied to the Puclaro Reservoir basin in Chile, which is affected by the Andes. The PMP estimations were calculated by applying statistical and hydrometeorological approaches to the baseline (1960–1999) and climate change scenarios (2045–2065) determined from projections of the ECHAM5 general circulation model. Temperature projections for the 2040–2065 period show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase in the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, as precipitable water content, raising it to 126.6% and 62.5% under scenarios A2 and B1, respectively; the probable maximum flood (PMF) would increase to +175.5% under the A2 scenario. These projections would affect the safety of dam design and would be generalizable to zones with similar mixed hydrology and climate change projections. We propose that the methodology presented could be also applied to basins with similar characteristics.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Porporato     

含金矿物中金及微量元素的质子探针分析

利用质子探针对黄铁矿、毒砂、人工合成矿物中的Ａｕ、Ｃｒ、Ｍｎ、Ｃｕ、Ａｓ、Ｐｂ微量元素进行了分析,实验表明,质子探针微区分析技术可测定痕量金及其它微量元素;不同矿物中金的检出限不同,黄铁矿中Ａｕ的检出限３μｇ／ｇ,毒砂中Ａｕ的检出限为３０μｇ／ｇ。     

乌鲁木齐夏半年降水演变及可能最大降水估算

对乌鲁木齐4-9月夏半年大雨以上降水各年代际降水量和降水日数统计分析表明：除20世纪60年代外,乌鲁木齐4-9月各年代大雨以上降水占总降水量的40％以上。大雨以上降水量和降水日数都呈增加趋势,2000年以后大雨以上降水量和暴雨次数都达到最大值。在此基础上,采用水文气象学的原理和方法对当地暴雨进行水汽效率放大和水汽输送率放大,推求乌鲁木齐1、2、3d的可能最大降水量,对比两种放大方法,采用水汽效率放大,1d可能最大降水为102mm。并用极值分布法推求乌鲁木齐最大日降水量重现期。为防汛抗灾提供了可靠的气象决策依据,最大可能降低了暴雨洪涝灾害造成的损失。     

当地暴雨放大法水汽效率放大的研究与应用

水汽效率放大法广泛应用于我国一级大型土石坝水电工程和核工程的短历时可能最大暴雨计算。为了研究该方法的基本原理并更好地适用于实际工程,对该方法涉及各参数的物理含义进行了详细阐述,对极大化参数的选取和合理性分析进行了说明,并应用于金沙江流域1d PMP计算。结果表明:水汽效率放大法对降水的两个基本物理因子(水汽因子和动力因子)同时进行了放大,一般可采用该方法推求的成果作为推荐成果;推求可降水量时代表性露点的选择应在时间和地区上具有代表性;该方法中暴雨效率间接反应了设计流域空气辐合上升运动的情况,是目前动力因子中最容易计算且精度较高的方法;该方法推求的PMP成果与选取的典型暴雨量无关,只与设计流域最大可降水量、可能最大暴雨效率和降水时段有关。     

韩江流域可能最大暴雨洪水移置计算

因韩江流域缺乏实测特大暴雨洪水资料,在充分分析韩江流域暴雨洪水特性基础上,结合流域及邻近地区水文、气象条件,移置西枝江流域"79.9"暴雨计算了韩江流域可能最大暴雨(PMP),并利用洪水预报系统推求出韩江流域可能最大洪水(PMF),对PMP与PMF成果作了合理性检查与评价,为韩江流域防御特大洪水研究提供基础依据.     

Assessment of deterministic PMF modelling approaches

Probable maximum flood (PMF) event estimation has challenged the scientific community for many years. Although the concept of the PMF is often applied, there is no consensus on the methods that should be applied to estimate it. In PMF estimation, the spatio-temporal representation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as well as the choice of modelling approach is often not theoretically founded. Moreover, it is not clear how these choices influence PMF estimation itself. In this study, combinations of three different spatio-temporal PMP representations and three different modelling approaches are applied to determine the PMF of a mesoscale basin keeping the antecedent catchment conditions and the total precipitation amount constant. The nine resulting PMF estimations are used to evaluate each combination of methods. The results show that basic methods allow for a rough estimation of the PMF. In cases where a physically plausible and reliable estimation is required, sophisticated PMP and PMF estimation approaches are recommended.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione