ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province

1IN T R O D U C T IO N The western China isfacinggrowing problems of eco- logicaland economic development. The disparitiebse- tween the socio-economy of the western and eastern China were enlarging, and the major ecologicalprob- lems stilelvolve as past(H…     

从太湖流域旱涝史料看历史气候信息处理

历史气候信息处理建立在信息提取的基础上,目的在于建立一套方法,将定性的历史气候信息转化为气候变化参数,并消除各种不均—性,从而建立历史气候序列。本文着重介绍建立太湖流域历史旱涝等级序列的方法与步骤: 1)确立信息源,建立信息网络;2)站点等级的确定与订正;3)弱信息处理;4)信息的综合。     

The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.     

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.     

长江三峡工程地壳形变监测网络

长江三峡工程地壳形变监测网络，采用了当今高精度GPS、INSAR空间大地测量技术，并与精密水准测量，精密重力测量，精密激光测距和峒体连续形变监测等技术相结合，构成一个空间上点、线、面结合，时间上长、中、短兼顾的高精度，高时空分辨率的地壳形变监测网络。该网络既可获取三峡库区特别是库首区区域形变场和区域应变场的动态变化，监测库区主要断层活动，为水库诱发地震预测及研究服务，又可用于气象、滑坡地质灾害监测等，该监测网络于1997年底开始建设，2001年6月建成，到目前为止，已获得大量宝贵的观测资料，必将产生显著的经济效益和社会效益。     

Morphological analysis of the drainage system in the Eastern Alps

We study the morphology of the major rivers draining the Eastern Alps to test whether the active tectonics of this part of the orogen is reflected in the shape of channel profiles of the river network. In our approach we compare channel profiles measured from digital elevation models with numerically modelled channel profiles using a stream power approach. It is shown that regions of high stream power coincide largely with regions of highest topography and largest uplift rates, while the forelands and the Pannonian Basin are characterised by a significantly lower stream power. From stream power modelling we conclude that there is young uplift at the very east of the Eastern Alps, in the Bohemian Massif and in the Pohorje Range. The impact of the Pleistocene glaciations is explored by comparing properties of rivers that drain in proximal and distal positions relative to the ice sheet during the last glacial maximum. Our analysis shows that most knick points, wind gaps and other non-equilibrium features of catchments covered by ice during the last glaciations (Salzach, Enns) can be correlated with glacial processes. In contrast the ice free catchments of the Mur and Drava are characterized by channels in morphological equilibrium at the first approximation and are showing only weak evidence of the strong tectonic activity within these catchments. Finally, the channel profiles of the Adige and the divide between the upper Rhine and Danube catchments differ significantly from the other catchments. We relate this to the fact that the Adige and the Rhine respond to different base levels from the remainder of the Eastern Alps: The Adige may preserve a record from the Messininan base level change and the Rhine is subject to the base level lowering in the Rhine Graben.     

Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin,the source region of Yangtze River in western China

Glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin, western China, have been monitored in recent decades by applying topographical maps and high-resolution satellite images. Results indicate that most of glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin have retreated in the period from 1968/1971 to 2001/2002, and their shrinkage area is 3.2% of the total area in the late 1960s. To assess the influence of glacier runoff on river runoff, a modified degree–day model including potential clear-sky direct solar radiation has been applied to the glaciated regions of the river basin over the period 1961–2004. It was found that glacier runoff has increased in the last 44 years, especially in the 1990s when a two-thirds increase in river runoff was derived from the increase in glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass in the entire Tuotuo River basin.     

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.     

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

三峡库区生基包滑坡监测及成果分析

生基包滑坡监测属于三峡库区奉节县三期地质灾害监测预警项目之一,该滑坡位于长江左岸,临近人口稠密的安坪乡集镇,地理位置重要。三峡水库175 m蓄水后,其变形破坏特征有何表现？对航道安全运营有无潜在威胁？是否会对滑坡体上的重要建筑及村民生产生活构成危害？针对这些问题,首先分析了滑坡的工程地质特征及主要的影响因素;其次,确立以4种监测手段为主、人工巡查为辅的监测方案;通过对大地变形GPS、深部位移、滑坡推力等几种监测方法的运用及对其成果进行分析研究,以实例说明其在滑坡监测中的应用;再次,结合宏观人工巡查进行对照分析,以充分说明大地变形、深部位移和滑坡推力监测在实际运用中的可行性;最后,根据监测结论提出对生基包滑坡防治的建议。