长江上游洪涝暴雨环流形势中期演变趋势分析

本文通过对1980年以来长江上游10次洪涝过程的500hpa环流形势分析,并用车比雪夫多项式对500hpa高度场进行展开,研究了各类洪涝过程的中期演变特征,发现代表不同洪涝过程环流形势变化的不同的车氏系数值都有明显的特征变化,结合欧洲中心中期数值预告96小时500hpa高度场的车氏系数分析,可为洪涝暴雨的中期预报提供一种新的思路。     

Extreme Rainfall Events and Associated Natural Hazards in Alaknanda Valley, Indian Himalayan Region

Introduction The Himalaya is considered to be the youngest mountains on the earth, and is tectonically very active, and hence inherently (geologically) vulnerable to hazards. Extreme rainfall events, landslides, debris flows, torrents and flash floods due…     

Possible chemical structures and biological precursors of different vitrinites in coal measure in Northwest China

Chemical structure of Jurassic vitrinites isolated from the coals in basins in NW China have been checked using solid state ¹³C NMR and flash pyrolysis-GC/MS. Study shows some Jurassic collodetrinites are rich in aliphatic products in pyrolysates, consisting with the high amount of methylene carbon in ¹³C NMR spectra. In contrast, pyrolysates of Jurassic collotelinites are rich in phenols and alkylbenzenes. Also one Pennsylvanian and one Permian vitrinite selected from the Ordos basin, NW China have been checked for comparison. The proportion of aliphatics is low in pyrolysates, and aliphatic carbon peak in ¹³C NMR spectrum of Permian vitrinite is mostly composed of gas-prone carbons compared with collodetrinites in those Jurassic basins. But both pyrolysis and ¹³C NMR data shows the Pennsylvanian vitrinite is not only gas-prone but also oil-prone. Relatively high proportion of long chain aliphatic structure of some Jurassic vitrinite in Junggar, Turpan-Hami basins may be due to the contribution of liptodetrinites, which may be included during the formation of vitrinites. And it seems that suberinite is the most possible precursor of long chain aliphatics in the structure of Jurassic collodetrinite.     

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Three Kinds of Flash Droughts over Agricultural Land in China from 1983 to 2015

At present, flash drought occurs globally and regionally and causes a lot of socio-economic loss in a very short time. Therefore, flash drought has been regarded as one of the hottest issues in drought research. However, flash drought monitoring, prediction and decision-making have encountered a lot of challenges due to its multiple driven factors and complex spatio-temporal process. Aiming at this problem, this paper focused on the agricultural land in China, and analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of three kinds of flash droughts (i.e., precipitation-deficit, high-temperature, and composite flash droughts) from 1983 to 2015. We studied the occurrences, duration, spatial distribution, temporal distribution, and trend of all three kinds of flash droughts. Our results demonstrated that, the occurrences of flash drought agricultural land in China increased year by year, among which high-temperature flash drought increased dramatically; duration of flash droughts had different trends, but the variations were relatively smooth; Northeast China was identified as a vulnerable area of flash drought, indicating more flash drought events and longer duration; flash droughts in China were found to concentrate in spring (high-temperature drought) and summer seasons (precipitation-deficit drought). This study is helpful for building new flash drought monitoring method and system, and it is also valuable for flash drought preparedness on regional scale.     

NaCl 溶液闪蒸效率特性数值研究

盐水闪蒸技术广泛应用于海水淡化及海洋温差能发电,含盐质量分数、给盐液温度和闪蒸压力对闪蒸汽化率和热效率有很大影响。在质量分数为3.5%～20%、给盐液温度为30～95℃和闪蒸压力为1～30 kPa的范围内,对NaCl溶液闪蒸汽化率和热效率等闪蒸效率特性进行了定量计算研究,研究得到了盐水含盐质量分数、给盐液温度和闪蒸压力对闪蒸汽化率以及热效率影响的规律。结果表明,降低含盐质量分数,提高给盐液温度,降低闪蒸压力可提高闪蒸汽化率与热效率;含盐质量分数越高,造成的热损失越大,而提高给盐液温度会增大热损失。     

The 12–13 November 1999 flash flood in southern France

The flash flood that occurred on 12–13 November 1999 in meridional France is documented. This event caused 35 fatalities and severe damage to property as rainfall totals locally exceeded 550 mm in 24 h and 620 mm in 48 h.The main issue of the present study is to discuss how realistically the spatial and temporal rainfall distribution of this flash flood event can be represented with present state-of-the-art operational and research modeling frameworks. The predictability of the present event for different forecast ranges is investigated and sensitivity studies are conducted in order to discuss the influence of model physics (convection, microphysics), atmospheric moisture analysis and Mediterranean sea surface temperature forcing on the quality of the results. It is shown that the present event could be reasonably predicted on forecast ranges of 2–3 days as it was essentially determined by strong moisture advection from the Mediterranean coupled with frontal and orographical lifting. However, precipitation scores show significant sensitivity to both analysis errors and model physics.     

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

气溶胶对雷暴云起电以及闪电发生率影响的数值模拟

本文利用二维耦合气溶胶模块的雷暴云起电模式,结合一次南京雷暴个例,进行250 m分辨率雷暴云起电模拟实验,探讨了气溶胶浓度对雷暴云空间电荷分布以及闪电发生率的影响。在这个气溶胶模块中,假定一个三模态的气溶胶对数分布,考虑了气溶胶活化过程。结果显示:(1)随着气溶胶浓度增大,雷暴云电荷结构保持为三极型。(2)当气溶胶浓度从50 cm-3增加至1000 cm-3时,水成物粒子浓度上升,雷暴云电荷量和闪电发生率增加明显。(3)气溶胶浓度在1000~3000 cm-3范围时,云水竞争限制了冰晶的增长,导致雷暴云上部主正电荷堆电荷量降低。云滴和霰粒子浓度缓慢上升促进中部主负电荷堆和底部次正电荷堆电荷量继续增大。闪电发生率保持稳定。(4)当气溶胶浓度大于3000 cm-3时,水成物粒子浓度稳定,云内的电荷量以及闪电发生率保持为一定量级。     

Flow dynamics and suspended sediment properties in arid zone flash floods

Hydrological process in arid zones differs substantially from that in better documented humid environments. The ponding point for infiltration is reached within 10 mins of first rain and overland flow forms the major component of basin runoff. Drainage densities are high, approaching 100 km.km^?2, maximising the opportunity for both water and eroded soil to reach the channel network. The typical flood bore is not as abrupt as the mythology of desert streams would suggest. Nevertheless, the time of rise of the flood hydrograph is usually between 4 and 16 mins, giving credance to the notion of ‘flash flood’. Measured flows remain subcritical in the main, though Froude number exceeds unity for short periods around peak discharge. Flow is exceedingly turbulent, with Reynolds number > 10⁵ even for much of the recession limb. As a result, suspended sediment concentrations by size grade are shown to be hydraulically controlled. However, the high degree of turbulence and wide availability of sediment from hillslope and channel sources also means that the mean size of the suspended load varies systematically with flow parameters. In this respect, ephemeral streams differ from perennial counterparts in humid environments where no clear-cut relationships exist. There is greater prospect of deriving a physically deterministic model of suspended sediment transport in desert streams. Implications for soil erosion and reservoir siltation are discussed, and sediment is traced from its source to its various sinks within the drainage basin.     

人工地震测深和天然地震流动观测兼用的轻便数字地震仪系统

本文介绍一种新的轻便数字地震仪ＤＡＳ－１。其设计特点是：双微处理器硬件结构;过采样ＡＤ转换技术的运用;线性相位和最小相位ＦＩＲ数字滤波的运用;大容量ＣＭＯＳ快闪存贮器作数据存储介质;ＧＰＳ授时和内部高精度数字钟相结合的时间服务系统;采集器功耗低于０．６５Ｗ。该仪器有３个信号输入通道,０￣４０Ｈｚ的带宽和１６位字长。它可方便地用于人工地震测深及天然地震流动观测。