Extreme Rainfall Events and Associated Natural Hazards in Alaknanda Valley, Indian Himalayan Region

Introduction The Himalaya is considered to be the youngest mountains on the earth, and is tectonically very active, and hence inherently (geologically) vulnerable to hazards. Extreme rainfall events, landslides, debris flows, torrents and flash floods due…     

Dynamic properties of green water event in the overtopping of extreme waves on a fixed dock

A statistical model is developed to predict wave overtopping volume and rate of extreme waves on a fixed deck. The probability density function for the volume and rate of overtopping water are formulated based on the truncated Weibull distribution with the assumption of local sinusoidal profile for small amplitude waves. Sensitivity to the wave nonlinearity parameter and deck clearance is discussed. The statistical model is compared to laboratory data of the instantaneous free surface elevation measured in front of a fixed deck, and overtopping volume and overtopping rate measured at the leading edge of the deck. The statistical theory compared well with the measured exceedance probability seaward of the deck. The model prediction of the exceedance probability of deck overtopping gave qualitatively good agreement for large overtopping values.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

On the parametric resonance of container ships

This work deals with parametric resonance which poses a great danger especially for container ships sailing in following or head seas. Important parameters that are effective in roll resonance are pointed out. For this purpose, a containership is taken as an example to analyze its stability in longitudinal waves based on the method worked out by American Bureau of Shipping (ABS). Unfavorable sailing conditions such as heading and speed, which directly depend on the environmental conditions, have been determined for this particular ship. These conditions may be reported to the master to guide him to keep his ship out of parametric resonance zones. Numerical details of the procedure have been worked out and provided as well.     

Patterns in the Turkish reinsurance claim data, 1998–2002: An application of the extreme value theory

The devastating 1999 Marmara and Düzce earthquakes led to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has a range of applications from stock market changes to natural disasters like floods and hurricanes. Here EVT is fitted to the ordinary and earthquake reinsurance claims of Turkey.     

一次造成乌鲁木齐市电网瑶线铁塔倒塌事故的气象原因分析

为了解2004年11月24日乌鲁木齐市两座电网瑶线铁塔倒塌事故的气象原因，通过实地调查，并对高低空环流形势场、加密气象站信息等进行了分析。结果表明，乌鲁木齐地区不同地理位置风速差异很大，红雁池和头屯河区瞬间极大风速分别比市区大12．8m／s和18．4m／s。纠正了过去认为东南大风的强中心只出现在红雁池附近的说法，为今后制作大风分区预报提供了参考，也可为城区高层建筑及相关设计规范的修正提供借鉴。     

旋转风螺旋度在广西春季一次冰雹大风天气分析中的应用

利用旋转风螺旋度对 2 0 0 1年 4月发生在桂中地区的冰雹大风天气进行分析 ,结果表明 :低层旋转风螺旋度对冰雹大风等强对流天气有一定的指示意义 ,冰雹大风天气易产生于低层正旋转风螺旋度大值中心与中低层对流性不稳定能量储存区所包围的区域 ,其上空 5 0 0 h Pa以下旋转风螺旋度为正 ,40 0 h Pa以上为负     

新疆大风的时空统计特征

统计了1961－1999年39a新疆90个气象观测站的气表－1资料，给出新疆大风的时空分布特征，结果表明：（1）年平均大风日数的高值区在北疆西北部，东疆和南疆西部，阿拉山口，达坂城大风最多，准噶尔盆地中心，塔里木盆地南缘最少。（2）大风年总日数的变化有明显的波动性，大部分地区80年代起大风日数有减少的趋势。（3）春，夏季大风最多，以5，6月最为频敏，大风主要出现在上年10时到午夜23时，半数以上的大风持续时间在1h以上，以0.5h以内最多。     

甘肃省1994～2001年极端干旱气候特征研究

利用甘肃省80站月降水量资料，对1994—2001年连续8a极端干旱气候持续时间、空间分布、干旱影响程度、相似年等进行研究。得出1995年、1997年、2000年是近8a中干旱量严重年，对农业、水资源、生态环境的影响最大。     

北京一次大风和强降水天气过程形成机理的数值模拟

利用3维强风暴冰雹分档模式(IPA—HBM)对2001年8月23日北京的一次伴有大风、暴雨和冰雹的强对流天气过程进行模拟和分析，并与部分观测资料进行了比较分析。结果表明，该模式对此次强风暴的生命史、降水分布、降雹的大小等要素做了较好的模拟，并能够模拟出伴随强风暴过程所产生的强下沉气流和及地面强风速切变(下去暴流)。从云微物理学角度分析了此次局地性大风的形成原因，认为由高空冰雹粒子的拖曳产生的负浮力作用是促发强下沉气流产生的主要原因，其次是冰雹的融化和雨水蒸发冷却对下沉气流起加速作用，冰雹的拖曳和融化作用对下沉气流具有决定性作用。强风暴所产生的爆发性强下沉气流最终导致了局地大风的形成。