1999年台湾7.6级大震与江苏-南黄海地区中强震预测

分析讨论了台湾地区7级大震与本区中强震之间相关关系，指出1999年台湾7.6级大震后2－3年内，本区将有5－6级中强震发生。同时应用可公度模型和“带头地震”的异年倍九法联合对本区中强震发震时间进行分析预测。结论表明，该方法可以较好地应用于本区短临地震预报实践。     

Measuring the k–S–p relations on DNAPLs migration

Migration characteristics of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in the subsurface can be expressed as a water–DNAPL two-phase system based on mainly the k–S–p relations, which describe the relations among relative permeability (k), degree of water saturation (S), and capillary pressure head (p). The aims of this research are to develop an experimental system with new type of probes, such as the electrical conductivity probe for measuring the degree of water saturation and the hydrophilic and hydrophobic tensiometer for measuring the pore water and DNAPL pressures, and also to estimate the results obtained from the developed experimental system. From these tests, the excellent k–S–p relations were obtained and the efficiency and validity of this developed experimental system have been confirmed in terms of the concept of the scaling coefficient calculated by interfacial tensions.     

近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析

利用云南气温和降水资料, 分析了云南气候变化特征及强降水极端天气和高温干旱事件对全球气候变暖的响应。以云南香格里拉、西双版纳、昆明地区为代表, 分析了区域气象要素变化趋势。结果表明: 云南近50 年气温变化与全球、北半球、中国变化趋势基本一致, 气温变化幅度略大于全球, 弱于北半球和全国变化。云南20 世纪80 年代中后期以后出现增暖现象, 以90 年代后期增温最明显, 1986 年以来出现13 年暖冬, 大部分地区冬春季降霜日数减少。随气候变暖, 香格里拉地区降雪日数呈下降趋势, 西双版纳地区雾日明显减少, 全省降雨日数逐渐减少, 大雨频率变化不大, 暴雨、大暴雨频率上升, 高温干旱事件频率增加。进入21 世纪以后, 云南降水减少, 高温干旱事件有增强增多趋势, 由2～3 年一遇变为1～2 年一遇。2005 年春夏连旱和2006 年春旱是云南近50 年和20 年来最严重的旱灾。     

遥感技术在植物物候研究中的应用综述

通过遥感技术研究植物物候现象的机理分析,认为植被指数可反映植被各物候期的特征。国内外在探测植物生长季始末日期、花期变化、净第一性生产力变化、全球碳收支等方面的研究促进了植物物候的发展;同样物候研究也可提高遥感影像植物分类和作物估产的精度,同时可促进高光谱遥感的发展。通过我国物候研究从传统的农林业应用转向注重遥感探测、生态学应用的现状分析,展望了我国物候发展方向：关注植物生长季始末时间的时空分布规律;遥感监测植物季相变化;遥感监测植物花期;注重探讨植物生理和生态特征;植物高光谱遥感物候研究;重视物候科普普及工作。     

祁连山区黑河流域季节冻土时空变化研究

季节冻土的时空变化对地—气水热交换、地表能量平衡、地表水文过程、生态系统及碳循环等有着非常重要的影响.利用黑河流域11个气象站40多年的气温数据和5 cm深度处的土壤温度数据,建立了月平均气温与土壤冻结天数之间的关系.同时应用月平均气温与冻结天数的相关关系和5 km网格化月平均气温及30 m分辨率的DEM数据,编制了黑河流域逐月季节冻土分布图,并按其空间分布特征,将逐月地表冻融状态划分为:完全冻结、不完全冻结和不冻结3种.系统研究了黑河流域2000-2009年逐月季节冻土分布及冻结概率的时空变化特征.在季节分配上,黑河流域完全冻结面积最大值出现在1月;不完全冻结面积最大值在11月;而不冻结面积最大值在6月和7月.在年际变化上,完全冻结状态的离差值在冷季变化大,暖季变化小;不完全冻结状态在一年的回暖期和降温初期,年际变化较大;不冻结状态分别在4月和10月变化较大.冻结概率在1月达到最大值,6月和7月降低到最小值.在空间分布上,黑河流域季节冻土的逐月分布与变化和冻结概率主要受海拔高度控制,纬度的影响次之.     

1961-2005年华东地区高温气候特征

Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days (HTDs) and the mean daily maximum temperature (MDMT) during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied. The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃ in the past 45 years. Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time, oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years. The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part, but less in the northern part of East China. The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China. The high temperature process (HTP) was more in the southwestern part, but less in northeastern part of East China. Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July, and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July. In the first 5 years of the 21st century, the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations, both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October, the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.     

Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Observed Temperature and Precipitation in China

Daily precipitation for 1960–2011 and maximum/minimum temperature extremes for 1960–2008 recorded at 549 stations in China are utilized to investigate climate extreme variations.A set of indices is derived and analyzed with a main focus on the trends and variabilities of daily extreme occurrences.Results show significant increases in daily extreme warm temperatures and decreases in daily extreme cold temperatures,defined as the number of days in which daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and daily minimum temperature(Tmin)are greater than the 90th percentile and less than the10th percentile,respectively.Generally,the trend magnitudes are larger in indices derived from Tmin than those from Tmax.Trends of percentile-based precipitation indices show distinct spatial patterns with increases in heavy precipitation events,defined as the top 95th percentile of daily precipitation,in western and northeastern China and in the low reaches of the Yangtze River basin region,and slight decreases in other areas.Light precipitation,defined as the tail of the5th percentile of daily precipitation,however,decreases in most areas.The annual maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)show an increasing trend in southern China and the middle-low reach of the Yellow River basin,while the annual maximum consecutive wet days(CWD)displays a downtrend over most regions except western China.These indices vary significantly with regions and seasons.Overall,occurrences of extreme events in China are more frequent,particularly the night time extreme temperature,and landmasses in China become warmer and wetter.     

桂林市近10年霾的变化分析

通过对桂林市近10a霾的观测资料分析,得出了霾的天数有逐年增多的趋势;一年中霾的天数变化秋季＞冬季＞春季、夏季;霾出现天数最多的月份是10月,最少月份是4月.霾出现的天数与降水日数、降水量成反比.     

云南大理洱源腊坪岩浆岩风化壳型钛铁砂矿

腊坪地区TiO2区域高值,有利于钛铁矿形成富集。对三类主要岩浆岩中TiO2含量与重砂淘洗砂矿样含矿率比照,认为辉长岩是钛铁砂矿含矿母岩,且与地形地貌及风化次生堆积条件有关。     

1960～2010年湖南雨日的时空变化特征

采用湖南省的88个地面气象站点逐日降水资料,运用经验正交分解（EOF）、线性回归、小波分析等方法分析了湖南雨日的空间变化特征和气候变化趋势,以及湖南雨日与降水量的关系。结果表明：湖南雨日空间分布大致是南多北少,平原少于山区丘陵区,呈现出2条少雨日带、4个多雨日区;过去51 a湖南大部分地区雨日呈减少趋势,对比雨日的空间分布发现,未来湖南雨日的空间分布差异可能减小;湖南雨日存在明显的年代际变化,1970年代和2000年代分别为近51 a来雨日最多和最少的10 a。湖南雨日的空间分型既有全区一致性,也存在着东南部—西北部、湘中地区与周围地区及东部—西部相反变化的差异。全区一致型雨日呈下降趋势,存在3 a、8 a和21 a周期变化。东南—西北反向型雨日东南（西北）呈下降（上升）趋势,存在3 a、6 a和18 a周期变化。湖南雨日与降水量呈正相关关系,且雨日和降水量的时空变化特征非常相似。