从太湖流域旱涝史料看历史气候信息处理

历史气候信息处理建立在信息提取的基础上,目的在于建立一套方法,将定性的历史气候信息转化为气候变化参数,并消除各种不均—性,从而建立历史气候序列。本文着重介绍建立太湖流域历史旱涝等级序列的方法与步骤: 1)确立信息源,建立信息网络;2)站点等级的确定与订正;3)弱信息处理;4)信息的综合。     

HCN fluorescence on Titan

The HCN emission features near 3 μm recently detected by Geballe et al. (2003, Astrophys. J. 583, L39) are analyzed with a model for fluorescence of sunlight in the ν₃ band of HCN. The emission spectrum is consistent with current knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile and the HCN distribution inferred from millimeter-wave observations. The spectrum is insensitive to the abundance of HCN in the thermosphere and the thousand-fold enhancement relative to photochemical models suggested by Geballe et al. (2003, Astrophys. J. 583, L39) is not required to explain the observations. We find that the spectrum can be matched with temperatures from 130 to 200 K, with slightly better fits at high temperature, contrary to the temperature determination of 130±10 K of Geballe et al. (2003, Astrophys. J. 583, L39). The HCN emission spectrum is sensitive to the collisional de-excitation probability, P₁₀, for the ν₃ state and we determine a value of 10⁻⁵ with an accuracy of about a factor of two. Analysis of absorption lines in the C₂H₂ν₃ band near 3 μm, detected in the same spectrum, indicate a C₂H₂ mole fraction near 0.01 μbar of 10⁻⁵ for P₁₀=10⁻⁴. The derived mole fraction, however, is dependent upon the value adopted for P₁₀ and lower values are required if P₁₀ at Titan temperatures is less than its room temperature value.     

The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.     

在BPL信道上增加数据广播内容的探讨

分析了现有罗兰C（包括BPL）在授时方面存在的不足，提出了在BPL信道上实现数据广播的主要目的。详细讨论了各种可能的数据信息的结构，并给出了有关参数和数据的计算方式和公式。认为发播内容的选择是由期望的系统功能决定的，广播内容的编排则与具体实现技术相关。最后给出了在不同调制方法下的传输速率，这是合理编排广播内容的基础。     

Short-term Climate Characteristics at Ny-(A)lesund over the Arctic Tundra Area

Based on the Germany Koldwey Station's 1994-2003 conventional observation hourly data, this paper conducts a statistical analysis on the short-term climate characteristics for an arctic tundra region (Ny-(A)lesund island) where our first arctic expedition station (Huanghe Station) was located. Affected by the North Atlantic warming current, this area has a humid temperate climate, and the air temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose above 0 ℃ even during deep winter season during our research period. The wind speed in this area was low and appeared most at southeast direction. We find that the temperature at Ny-(A)lesund rose in the faster rate (0.68 ℃/10 a) than those at the whole Arctic area. Compared with the floating ices where our expedition conducted in the Arctic, Ny-(A)lesund was warmer and more humid and had lower wind speed. Comparison of the near surface air temperature derived by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to the conventional measurements conducted at the Koldwey site in Ny-(A)lesund area shows a good agreement for winter season and a significant difference for summer season.     

Temperature of the Icelandic crust: Inferred from electrical conductivity, temperature surface gradient, and maximum depth of earthquakes

Two different models of the structure of the Icelandic crust have been presented. One is the thin-crust model with a 10–15 km thick crust beneath the axial rift zones, with an intermediate layer of partially molten basalt at the base of the crust and on the top of an up-domed asthenosphere. The thick-crust model assumes a 40 km thick and relatively cold crust beneath central Iceland. The most important and crucial parameter to distinguish between these different models is the temperature distribution with depth. Three methods are used to estimate the temperature distribution with depth. First, the surface temperature gradient measured in shallow wells drilled outside geothermal areas. Second, the thickness of the seismogenic zone which is associated with a 750 °C isothermal surface. Third, the depth to a layer with high electrical conductivity which is associated with partially molten basalt with temperature around 1100 °C at the base of the crust. Combination of these data shows that the temperature gradient can be assumed to be nearly linear from the surface down to the base of the crust. These results are strongly in favour of the thin-crust model. The scattered deep seismic reflectors interpreted as Moho in the thick-crust model could be caused by phase transitions or reflections from melt pockets in the mantle.     

Numerical modeling for analyzing thermal surface anomalies induced by underground coal fires

Coal seams burning underneath the surface are recognized all over the world and have drawn increasing public attention in the past years. Frequently, such fires are analyzed by detecting anomalies like increased exhaust gas concentrations and soil temperatures at the surface. A proper analysis presumes the understanding of involved processes, which determine the spatial distribution and dynamic behavior of the anomalies.In this paper, we explain the relevance of mechanical and energy transport processes with respect to the occurrence of temperature anomalies at the surface. Two approaches are presented, aiming to obtain insight into the underground coal fire situation: In-situ temperature mapping and numerical simulation. In 2000 to 2005, annual temperature mapping in the Wuda (Inner Mongolia, PR China) coal fire area showed that most thermal anomalies on the surface are closely related to fractures, where hot exhaust gases from the coal fire are released. Those fractures develop due to rock mechanical failure after volume reduction in the seams. The measured signals at the surface are therefore strongly affected by mechanical processes.More insight into causes and effects of involved energy transport processes is obtained by numerical simulation of the dynamic behavior of coal fires. Simulations show the inter-relation between release and transport of thermal energy in and around underground coal fires. Our simulation results show a time delay between the coal fire propagation and the observed appearance of the surface temperature signal. Additionally, the overall energy flux away from the burning coal seam into the surrounding bedrock is about 30-times higher than the flux through the surface. This is of particular importance for an estimation of the energy released based on surface temperature measurements. Finally, the simulation results also prove that a fire propagation rate estimated from the interpretation of surface anomalies can differ from the actual rate in the seam.     

Analysis of drivers governing temporal salinity and temperature variations in groundwater discharge from Altug Submarine Karst Cave (Kas-Turkey)

Salinity and temperature variations in groundwater discharge from the Altug submarine karst cave have been observed at 28 m below sea level for every 10 min between November 2004 and August 2005 to determine the drivers that govern the salinization. Comparisons between temporal trends of salinity and temperature with those of precipitation, air pressure, sea level and wind velocity revealed an apparent dominance of precipitation regime on the salinity and temperature variations. Spectral analyses applied to observations showed that the air pressure and sea level oscillations are affected by sun and moon tides which do not have an appreciable impact on the salinity and temperature variations. Annual rate of salinization in Altug cave seems inversely related to the inland groundwater head so that the maximum and minimum fresh water contributions occur at mid-spring and late-summer, respectively.     

Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin,the source region of Yangtze River in western China

Glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin, western China, have been monitored in recent decades by applying topographical maps and high-resolution satellite images. Results indicate that most of glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin have retreated in the period from 1968/1971 to 2001/2002, and their shrinkage area is 3.2% of the total area in the late 1960s. To assess the influence of glacier runoff on river runoff, a modified degree–day model including potential clear-sky direct solar radiation has been applied to the glaciated regions of the river basin over the period 1961–2004. It was found that glacier runoff has increased in the last 44 years, especially in the 1990s when a two-thirds increase in river runoff was derived from the increase in glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass in the entire Tuotuo River basin.     

Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.