Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

Spatial Modeling and Analysis for Shoreline Change Detection and Coastal Erosion Monitoring

Coastal erosion presents a serious problem throughout U.S. coastal areas. The Ohio Geological Survey estimates that more than 3,200 acres of Ohio's Lake Erie shore have been lost to erosion since the 1870s, resulting in economic losses exceeding tens of millions of dollars per year. This article presents research results of a project that monitors shoreline erosion using high-resolution imagery and examines erosion causes. Spatial modeling and analysis methods are applied to the project area along the south shore of Lake Erie. The shoreline is represented as a dynamically-segmented linear model that is linked to a large amount of data describing shoreline changes. A new method computes an instantaneous shoreline using a digital water level model, a coastal terrain model, and bathymetric data. This method provides an algorithm for deriving the Mean-Lower Low Water (MLLW) and the Mean High Water (MHW) shorelines that are essential to navigation charts. The results describe a part of our effort towards a coastal spatial information infrastructure to support management and decision-making in the dynamic coastal environment.     

廉州湾南部海域泥沙来源及运移趋势分析

重矿物组合、含量变化和特征矿物的分布及变化规律是沿海泥沙来源和运移趋势判断的重要手段之一。通过对廉州湾南部海域海底表层沉积物的重矿物分析 ,发现该区重矿物分布以北海地角为界 ,其百分含量和特征矿物南北有别 ,可能分别代表不同的物质来源区。其中廉州湾北部南流江流域来沙是该区主要物源 ,运移趋势为自 NE向 SW;地角西南岸段、岭南侧海岸侵蚀及银滩来沙也为该区提供了部分物源 ,运移趋势为绕过冠头岭沿海岸向 N方向运移。由于缺乏北海陆域陆相地层重矿物含量等相关资料 ,暂未做物质来源区的具体判断     

长江口基础生物资源现状及年际变化趋势分析

探讨长江口生物资源可持续利用和对生物栖息环境的保护措施,2004年对长江口海域的基础生物资源进行4次监测。结果表明:浮游植物5月份有5门39属86种,8月份有6门48属139种,河口锋附近水域的浮游植物种类、数量较多,中肋骨条藻(Skeletonema costatum)在数量上处于绝对优势;浮游动物5月份为77种,8月份为91种,中小型浮游动物的数量在河口锋附近水域较高,主要优势种有针刺拟哲水蚤(Paracalanus aculeatus)等,大型浮游动物种类数量较高的区域位于长江冲淡水以外的海域,主要优势种为中华哲水蚤(Calanus sinicus)、五角水母(Muggiaea atlantica)、真刺唇角水蚤(Labidocera euchaeta);2004年共鉴定底栖生物146种,5月份63种,8月份108种,其中多毛类41种、甲壳类41种、软体动物32种、棘皮动物6种、鱼类21种、其他4种;长江口沿岸的崇明东滩、南汇边滩和嵊山岛共鉴定潮间带生物126种,其中5月份86种,8月份71种;鱼卵仔鱼计8目20科30属34种,鱼卵中绝大部分为凤鲚,其数量占95.7%,仔鱼以中华小公鱼出现频次最多。通过年际变化分析表明,长江口门以内区域浮游生物种类明显下降,长江冲淡水区域的生物资源基础饵料生物种类数基本保持稳定,浮游生物群落结构发生变化,硅藻比重减少,甲藻增加,长江口区域的潮下带和潮间带底栖生物种类数也存在不同程度的下降,以口门以内区域下降明显。     

SeagrassNet monitoring across the Americas: case studies of seagrass decline

Seagrasses are an important coastal habitat worldwide and are indicative of environmental health at the critical land–sea interface. In many parts of the world, seagrasses are not well known, although they provide crucial functions and values to the world's oceans and to human populations dwelling along the coast. Established in 2001, SeagrassNet, a monitoring program for seagrasses worldwide, uses a standardized protocol for detecting change in seagrass habitat to capture both seagrass parameters and environmental variables. SeagrassNet is designed to statistically detect change over a relatively short time frame (1–2 years) through quarterly monitoring of permanent plots. Currently, SeagrassNet operates in 18 countries at 48 sites; at each site, a permanent transect is established and a team of people from the area collects data which is sent to the SeagrassNet database for analysis. We present five case studies based on SeagrassNet data from across the Americas (two sites in the USA, one in Belize, and two in Brazil) which have a common theme of seagrass decline; the study represents a first latitudinal comparison across a hemisphere using a common methodology. In two cases, rapid loss of seagrass was related to eutrophication, in two cases losses related to climate change, and in one case, the loss is attributed to a complex trophic interaction resulting from the presence of a marine protected area. SeagrassNet results provide documentation of seagrass change over time and allow us to make scientifically supported statements about the status of seagrass habitat and the extent of need for management action.     

新鲜煤和氧化煤自燃倾向性的FTIR对比分析

利用傅立叶变换红外光谱（FTIR）分析技术,对乌达矿区低温氧化和新鲜煤样进行了红外光谱测试,通过两类煤样的特征官能团吸光度的对比分析．揭示了煤在氧化前后特征官能团的变化规律：氧化后的煤样中脂肪族和芳烃CH减少,酸酐C=O从无到有,芳烃骨架C=C基本不变,进而研究了其对煤自燃倾向性的影响。结果表明脂肪族和羟基含量越高,煤自燃倾向性越大。     

高原大地形及海洋热力强迫对东亚及北半球环流和气候变化影响的观测研究

本文总结了“青藏高原大地形及西太平洋暖池势力强迫对东亚及全球气候变化的影响”专题五年来的主要研究工作。其中包括青世故高原东部大气热源的时间演变特征,夏半年高原热源异常对我国降水和北半球环流的影响;西沙海温变化特征及其与我南方降水的关系,北太平洋海温主因子特征及其与华南前汛期降水的变化。     

云南水汞在姚安6.5级地震前的异常特征分析

对2000年1月15日姚安6．5级地震前后云南水汞异常进行分析研究，结果表明：在9个观测台站中，地震前有1个观测台站的水汞出现中期趋势异常，1个台站的水汞出现远震异常，4个台站的水汞出现短期异常，1个台站的水汞出现临震异常。地震前3个月内，水汞短期异常有活跃，平静的过程，在平静中(仅1个台站出现临震异常)发生姚安6．5级地震。姚安地震发生在距出现远震异常的水汞观测台站70km的地方。出现远震异常的水汞观测台站附近，可能是未来强震的发震地区。     

2001年昆仑山口8.1级巨震后中国大陆、云南地震趋势研究

分析研究了2001年11月14日昆仑山口8．1级巨震对中国大陆云南未来几年地震趋势的影响，指出巨震后6年大陆可能仍然处于地震活跃期，其间大陆西部发生7．0级以上大震可能性较大；受2000－2001年欧亚带东南段大震活动过程及巨震调整影响，未来1－3年云南省可能进入新的活跃期，6．5级以上强震危险性增加。