Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

一种从经纬度网格资料获得正方形网格资料的插值方案

本文提出了一种把经纬度网格点上的气象要素值转化到正方形网格点上的多项式插值方案。对插值方案作了稳定性讨论和定量及定性分析。结果表明,这种插值方案方便可行,而且有广泛适用性。     

渔业企业投资经济效益评估

在市场经济的条件下,渔业企业作为一个独立的投资主体,对任何一项投资,它都会考虑其经济效益.本文通过一个实例,阐述了渔业企业在投资之前,如何从财务上评估该项投资的经济效益.     

拉格朗日插值法在渔业资源评估上的应用

应用拉格朗日插值法拟合鱼类体长与体重之间的函数关系 ,使用计算机VB语言进行编写程序 ,与常用的线性回归法、Ricker法进行比较 ,得出体长与体重的关系式为Pn(x) =∑nk=0yklk(x)=∑nk=0(∏nj=0j≠kx-xjxk-xj)yk 。     

铜川南滑坡危险性综合评价

本文根据大量的调查资料，采用多指标评判打分法对铜川市区滑坡逐一进行了危险性综合评价，旨在为该区滑坡的预测与防治提供可靠的依据。     

Infiltration at the Tai rain forest (Ivory Coast): Measurements and modelling

Infiltration experiments have been performed at three sites along a well-known catena under virgin tropical rain forest using a portable sprinkling infiltrometer. Experimentally determined infiltration curves are presented. Infiltration curves are also simulated on the basis of the Mein-Larson equation. The parameters for this model have been obtained from the infiltration curves (saturated conductivity) and simple soil moisture determinations (fillable porosity). The agreement between experimentally determined and modelled infiltration is reasonable, provided (a) saturated conductivity as derived from the experimental data is corrected, (b) a storage parameter, also derived from the experimental data, is added to the Mein-Larson model, and (c) the decline in soil porosity with depth is either small or occurs abruptly at shallow depth. Comparison of observed infiltration rates with rainfall intensity shows that Horton Overland Flow has to occur naturally at least on the middle and lower section of the catena. Despite the fact that most parameters can be estimated in principle from basic soil data, it remains advisable to obtain sprinkling infiltrometer field measurements, because of soil variability due to dynamic surface conditions, macroporosity, air entrapment, and irregularity of the wetting front.     

Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.     

中国开辟区不利开采地形类型及其分布

利用1998年"大洋一号"调查船近海底作业所获的深拖海底电视和照相系统资料,对中国开辟区不利开采地形类型及其分布特征进行了研究,并对海底地形的坡度进行了计算,结果表明:(1)中国开辟区东、西两区海底的东向坡和西向坡是均衡分布的。东、西两区海底地形坡度的分布特征明显不同,东区海底地形坡度以0～15°为主,而西区坡度大于3°的地形则很少。坡度大于5°的地形主要分布于坡脚处,特别是坡度超过15°的地形总是出现在水深变化的转折点处。(2)研究区不利开采地形可分为坡度为5～15°和大于15°两种类型,东区地形坡度大于5°的不利开采地形比西区多14%,东区坡度大于15°的地形为3.6%,比西区(仅为1.4%)多,东、西两区都有少量坡度近90°的地形出现,并且这种地形在东区所占比率比西区大,说明东区断崖、陡坎和断裂沟槽比西区多,地形也更为复杂多变。     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

热带地区流场异常与江淮特大暴雨成因的研究

本文通过计算和对比分析，得到１９９１年春、夏江淮地区特大暴雨形成的五个基本特征：西北太平洋上副高显著偏西、偏北；较弱的西南季风与东南气流汇合成强西南气流伸向江淮地区；偏东风与强西南风形成的辐合带在江淮地区维持；江淮地区对流层中下部为强上升运动、上部为辐散；１３０°Ｅ附近南半球向北半球的较强越赤道气流持续。