Models in geography revisited

Agent based models (ABMs) have many applications, and illustrate a rapidly developing field of enquiry, spanning both the physical-mathematical and human-social sciences. ABMs are seen as most appropriate in situations where decisions or actions are distributed around particular locations, and in which structure is viewed as emergent from the interaction between individuals. ABMs may be used either as representational devices, to reproduce the patterns observed or desired in the system of interest, or as foundational tools contributing to the development of social or economic theory. The role and status of models and modelling is itself an instantiation of a wider debate concerning representation and explanation. Today, a case can be made that the nature of explanation and the use of scientific interpretation reflect much less definite and exclusive positions and permit more diverse approaches than hitherto. The underlying proposition of this commentary is, therefore, that the time is right for a positive application of ABMs within the discipline of geography, and for a rediscovery and reappraisal of the richness and depth of insight in the model-building enterprise more generally. First, the context for ABM development and application is set with reference to the agency-structure debate. Second, some aspects of the heritage of models in geography is presented, based upon reviews of two benchmark publications bearing that title. Next, some of the most significant characteristics, uses, potentials and limitations of ABMs, are reviewed. Finally, some constructive ways forward are suggested, as informed by theory and method from the interpretative social sciences.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

Cation distribution and structure modelling of spinel solid solutions

 This paper presents an improved generalisation of cation distribution determination based on an accurate fit of all crystal-chemical parameters. Cations are assigned to the tetrahedral and octahedral sites of the structure according to their scattering power and a set of bond distances optimised for spinel structure. A database of 295 spinels was prepared from the literature and unpublished data. Selected compositions include the following cations: Mg²⁺, Al³⁺, Si⁴⁺, Ti⁴⁺, V³⁺, Cr³⁺, Mn²⁺, Mn³⁺, Fe²⁺, Fe³⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺ and vacancies. Bond distance optimisation reveals a definite lengthening in tetrahedral distance when large amounts of Fe³⁺ or Ni²⁺ are present in the octahedral site. This means that these cations modify the octahedral angle and hence the shared octahedral edge, causing an increase in the tetrahedral distance with respect to the size of the cations entering it. Some applications to published data are discussed, showing the capacity and limitations of the method for calculating cation distribution, and for identifying inconsistencies and inaccuracies in experimental data. Received: 19 February 2001 / Accepted: 1 June 2001     

Compression mechanisms of coesite

 The structure of coesite has been determined at ten pressures up to a maximum of 8.68 GPa by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The dominant mechanism of compression is the reduction of four of the five independent Si–O–Si angles within the structure. There is no evidence of the fifth linkage, Si1–O1–Si1, deviating from 180°. Some Si–O bond distances also decrease by up to 1.6% over the pressure range studied. The pattern of Si–O–Si angle reduction amounts to a rotation of the Si2 tetrahedron around the [001] direction. This rotation induces significant internal deformation of the Si1 tetrahedron. Comparison of the experimental data with rigid-unit distance least-squares simulations of coesite suggests that this pattern of compression, the anomalous positive values of both s₂₃ and K′′ in the equation of state of coesite, its high elastic anisotropy and the unusual straight Si1–O1–Si1 linkage within the structure are all consequences of the connectivity of the tetrahedral framework. Received: 11 July 2002 / Accepted: 14 January 2003 Acknowledgements The help of Christian Baerlocher of ETH Zurich in providing both the DLS-76 software and advice in its use is gratefully acknowledged, as are discussions with Paul Ribbe of Virginia Tech and the comments of two anonymous reviewers. The data analysis was supported by the National Science Foundation under grant EAR-0105864 to N.L. Ross and R.J. Angel.     

Nitrogen isotope indicators of seasonal source variability to groundwater

 A nitrogen isotope study of soil water and groundwater in southern Indiana, USA, in 1991–1992 demonstrated considerable variations in nitrate degradation processes compared to an earlier investigation in 1986–1987. Although N-fertilizers were applied in May 1991, the δ¹⁵N values in soil water decreased in February 1992, indicating its delayed release into the system after substantial rainfall. The δ¹⁵N values of groundwater decreased from +12.3‰ in November 1991 to +11.3‰ in February 1992, and to +7.5‰ in March 1992. The increased residence time of nitrate in the soil resulted in increased denitrification, ammonia volatilization and plant uptake, and reduced threat to the groundwater quality. The 1986–1987 study in the area reported that excessive rainfall during the summer rapidly transported the nitrate to deeper horizons and drastically reduced volatilization and microbial reduction of nitrate, thus increasing the immediate threat to the groundwater quality in the area. The present study demonstrated that nitrogen isotopic signatures can be used to determine the effects of local soil type, rainfall, and land-use practices on the fate of nitrate in the subsurface. Received: 18 February 1997 · Accepted: 17 June 1997     

Untersuchung der Sorptionseigenschaften des Kationenaustauschers KB-2M mit Makronetzstruktur zur Abtrennung von Zinkionen aus Ab- und Spülwässern

Study of Sorptional Properties of the Cation Exchanger KB-2M with Macroreticular Structure for Recovery of Zinc Ions from Sewage and Rinsing Water Although a number of ion-exchange methods have been employed for the recovery of some transition metals from industrial effluents, knowledge about ion-exchange resins with macroreticular structure is poor. The present paper describes the mechanism of sorption on such exchangers and their application for recovery of zinc from sewage rinsing water. Ion exchanger of macroreticular structure are polymers with long-chained cross-linking agents. We have synthesized carboxylic ion-exchange resins by hydrolysis of copolymerisates of methyl acrylate with different cross-linking agents: divinylbenzene, divinyl sulfide, divinyl ester of ethylene glycol and divinyl ester of di- or triethylene glycol. The sorption process on modifications of the carboxylic resins KB-2 of various structure was studied with different methods: potentiometric titration, infrared spectroscopy, electron microscopy, X-ray structural analysis. The initial zinc concentration in rinsing water was 0.05 mol/L at pH from 3 to 6. For the sorption, 0.2…1.0 g of resin were equilibrated with 100 mL of zinc solution. After equilibrium (12 h), the resin was separated from solution. The zinc ions were determined by atomic absorption spectrometry after stripping with 100 mL of 10% sulfuric acid. The distribution ratio D was calculated (D: mmole of Zn sorbed per gram of resin divided by mmole of Zn per millilitre of solution). By means of infrared spectroscopy, the mechanism of sorption of zinc ions from rinsing water was determined. There may be a possibility of the formation of complexes in the cation-exchange resin phase. It was found out in this paper that the cation-exchanger KB-2M of macroreticular structure is the most effective for the sorption of the Zn²⁺-ions from sewage and rinsing water.     

Environmental policy reform on north-eastern Brazil’s agricultural frontier

The expansion of modern agriculture in developing countries presents numerous challenges for environmental policy makers. Environmental policies for agriculture in north-eastern Brazil’s soybean belt are analyzed, with emphasis on the role of a non-state actor in leading policy reforms. An organization representing large farmers is leading policy reforms to reduce the environmental impacts of modern agriculture. By contrast, state agencies are relatively weak and ineffective. The analysis situates this question conceptually in literatures stressing the political and structural causes of corporate environmentalism and literatures explaining the increasingly strong role of non-state actors in environmental governance. The case study focuses on the content of reforms, reasons why the non-state actor is so prominent, and the implications of policy reforms. State agencies face major challenges in environment-agriculture policy debates in places where environmental subsidies are unlikely, environmental information is poor, and organized private interests are influential.     

西藏樟木堆积体结构及其稳定性

樟木口岸是我国与尼泊尔王国之间唯一的陆路通商口岸,也是西藏地区目前唯一具有一定规模的国际贸易口岸,但该口岸坐落于一大型堆积体之上,长期面临地质灾害的威胁。为进一步论证该堆积体的稳定问题,本文在野外调查基础上,对该堆积体的工程地质结构、岩土类型以及斜坡的变形破坏规律和稳定性进行了初步分析。结果表明：该堆积体并非单一土质结构,尚存在冰水堆积等类型,斜坡发生整体滑坡的可能性小,以地形坡度、人类工程活动等控制的局部滑移为主。     

地震折射波法探测研究张强地区的构造特征

张强地区位于中朝地台北缘的吉黑地槽区,其基底岩系和构造特征与中朝地台的基底和构造特征有明显的差别,通过２００ｋｍ的折射波法探测,得出如下结论：（１）本区基底构造线方向呈现近ＳＮ或ＮＮＷ向,二条此方向的断层划分出三个构造单元。（２）该区内中生代前基底分为两套地层,其岩性、断层特征和基底埋深均有差别。     

Microphysical modeling of ethane ice clouds in titan’s atmosphere

A time-dependent microphysical model is used to study the evolution of ethane ice clouds in Titan’s atmosphere. The model simulates nucleation, condensational growth, evaporation, coagulation, and transport of particles. For a critical saturation of 1.15 (a lower limit, determined by laboratory experiments), we find that ethane clouds can be sustained between altitudes of 8 and 50 km. Growth due to coalescence is inefficient, limiting the peak in the size distribution (by number) to 10 μm. These clouds vary with a period of about 20 days. This periodicity disappears for higher critical saturation values where clouds remain subvisible. Rainout of ethane due to methane cloud formation raises the altitude of the ethane cloud bottom to near the tropopause and may eliminate ethane clouds entirely if methane cloud formation occurs up to 30 km. However, clouds formed above the troposphere from other gases in Titan’s atmosphere could be sustained even with rainout up to 30 km. Although the optical depth of ethane clouds above 20 km is typically low, short-lived clouds with optical depths of order 0.1-1 can be created sporadically by dynamically driven atmospheric cooling. Ethane cloud particles larger than 25 μm can fall to the surface before total evaporation. However, ethane clouds remain only a small sink for tholin particles. At the peak of their cycle, the optical depth of ethane clouds could be comparable to that of tholin in the near-infrared, resulting in a 5% increase in Titan’s albedo for wavelengths between 1 and 2 μm. A number of factors limit our ablility to predict the ethane cloud properties. These factors include the mixing time in the troposphere, the critical saturation ratio for ethane ice, the existence of a surface reservoir of ethane, the magnitude and timing of dynamically driven temperature perturbations, and the abundance and life cycle of methane clouds.