Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Spatial measurements of stream baseflow,a relevant method for aquifer characterization and permeability evaluation. Application to a hard‐rock aquifer,the Oman ophiolite

The structure, functioning and hydrodynamic properties of aquifers can be determined from an analysis of the spatial variability of baseflow in the streams with which they are associated. Such analyses are based on simple low‐cost measurements. Through interpreting the hydrological profiles (Q = f(A)) it is possible to locate the aquifer(s) linked to the stream network and to determine the type of interrelated flow, i.e. whether the stream drains or feeds the aquifer. Using an analytical solution developed for situations with a positive linear relationship, i.e. where the baseflow increases linearly with increasing catchment size, it is also possible to estimate the permeability of the aquifer(s) concerned at catchment scale. Applied to the hard‐rock aquifers of the Oman ophiolite, this method shows that the ‘gabbro’ aquifer is more permeable than the ‘peridotite’ aquifer. As a consequence the streams drain the peridotites and ‘leak’ into the gabbro. The hydrological profiles within the peridotite are linear and positive, and indicate homogeneity in the hydrodynamic properties of these formations at the kilometre scale. The permeability of the peridotite is estimated at 5 · 10^?7 to 5 · 10^?8 m/s. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age and early metamorphic history of the Sanbagawa belt: Lu–Hf and P–T constraints from the Western Iratsu eclogite

Two distinct age estimates for eclogite-facies metamorphism in the Sanbagawa belt have been proposed: (i) c.  120–110 Ma based on a zircon SHRIMP age for the Western Iratsu unit and (ii) c.  88–89 Ma based on a garnet–omphacite Lu–Hf isochron age from the Seba and Kotsu eclogite units. Despite the contrasting estimates of formation ages, petrological studies suggest the formation conditions of the Western Iratsu unit are indistinguishable from those of the other two units—all ∼20 kbar and 600–650 °C. Studies of the associated geological structures suggest the Seba and Western Iratsu units are parts of a larger semi-continuous eclogite unit. A combination of geochronological and petrological studies for the Western Iratsu eclogite offers a resolution to this discrepancy in age estimates. New Lu–Hf dating for the Western Iratsu eclogite yields an age of 115.9 ± 0.5 Ma that is compatible with the zircon SHRIMP age. However, petrological studies show that there was significant garnet growth in the Western Iratsu eclogite before eclogite facies metamorphism, and the early core growth is associated with a strong concentration of Lu. Pre-eclogite facies garnet (Grt1) includes epidote–amphibolite facies parageneses equilibrated at 550–650 °C and ∼10 kbar, and this is overgrown by prograde eclogite facies garnet (Grt2). The Lu–Hf age of c.  116 Ma is strongly skewed to the isotopic composition of Grt1 and is interpreted to reflect the age of the pre-eclogite phase. The considerable time gap ( c.  27 Myr) between the two Lu–Hf ages suggests they may be related to separate tectonic events or distinct phases in the evolution of the Sanbagawa subduction zone.     

Disk galaxy evolution: from the Milky Way to high-redshift disks

We develop a detailed model of the Milky Way (a `prototypical' disk galaxy) and extend it to other disks with the help of some simple scaling relations, obtained in the framework of Cold Dark Matter models. This phenomenological (`hybrid') approach to the study of disk galaxy evolution allows us to reproduce successfully a large number of observed properties of disk galaxies in the local Universe and up to redshift z ∼ 1. The important conclusion is that, on average, massive disks have formed the bulk of their stars earlier than their lower mass counterparts: the `star formation hierarchy' has been apparently opposite to the `dark matter assembly' hierarchy. It is not yet clear whether `feedback' (as used in semi-analytical models of galaxy evolution) can explain that discrepancy. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The mass/eccentricity limit in double star astronomy

A research that we conducted in 1963 on the evolution of the binaries based on the available orbital data to obtain a philosophical degree, led to the establishment of an interesting and new diagram between the logarithm of the total mass and a particular parameterX, bound to the areal constant. This appeared to have a real physical significance but the basic observational material was insufficiently extended to assure its undeniable existence. In 1981, a new research based on a more extended orbital material, has confirmed this diagram. Presently, another important increase in the orbital material and the availability of highly accurate trigonometric parallaxes produced by the Hipparcos satellite, gave us the opportunity to confirm once more the stability of this diagram. This last research is here described.