The separation of the influence of nutrients and climate on the varve time-series of baldeggersee, Switzerland

The varve data-set from a freeze-core taken in the deepest part of Baldeggersee was subjected to different multivariate statistical analyses in order to estimate the amount of variance in the varve thickness measures explicable by past climate and by the trophic state of the lake. A comparison of two different time-periods (1902 to1992 versus 1920 to 1980) revealed that the lake restoration programme since 1982 has had a significant impact on the formation of the seasonal layers. Results of the partitioning of the variance in the varve thickness measures showed that about two thirds of the variance are unexplained by a climate and trophic state model and that trophic state explains 6%, whereas climate accounts for about 28% of the variance before the effect of lake restoration had a strong impact on the varves. Among the climate parameters the amount of annual precipitation is a strong predictor for explaining the thickness of both dark layer and total couplet thickness, whereas summer precipitation is important for the thickness of the light layer.     

腾格里沙漠不同类型沙丘土壤水分含量与地形-植被因子关系研究

土壤水分是沙区主要的生态限制因子,其分布受气候、地形和植被等众多因素的影响。以腾格里沙漠沙坡头地区3种类型的沙丘（固定沙丘、半固定沙丘和流动沙丘）为研究对象,利用方差分析和冗余分析（RDA）等方法对沙丘不同部位和不同深度土壤水分的分布特征及其与地形-植被因子之间的关系进行了综合分析。结果表明：（1） 不同类型沙丘上0~300 cm的土壤水分随着深度的增加而增加,表层土壤水分的波动程度大于中层和深层。（2） 固定沙丘不同部位及不同深度的土壤水分之间没有明显的差异,半固定沙丘和流动沙丘迎风坡与丘底的土壤水分高于背风坡和丘顶。（3） 固定沙丘上的土壤水分受地形-植被因子的影响较半固定沙丘和流动沙丘小,影响固定沙丘土壤水分的主要因子有坡向、高差和灌木多度。（4） 地形-植被因子与研究区绝大多数半固定沙丘和流动沙丘的土壤水分均有负相关关系。研究揭示了腾格里沙漠土壤水分的分布规律及其与地形-植被因子的关系,对制定相应的防风固沙措施以及建立科学合理的植物固沙模式有积极的指导作用。     

广西气象数据中心机房供电系统设计与保障

针对供配电系统容易发生的安全隐患,优化设计配电系统结构、采用一体化运维监控平台和采用高质量、高可靠性的设备,消除单点故障瓶颈,确保在停电、设备故障、维修维护等各种情况下提供不中断或快速恢复供电,避免停电对业务正常运行造成影响,确保机房供电安全。     

2013年春季崂山湾浮游植物群落及其环境控制

2013 年春季(3、4、5 月)对崂山湾海域浮游植物群落及其理化环境进行了3 个航次的调查研究。共鉴定浮游植物40 属75 种, 硅藻是调查区主要的浮游植物类群; 浮游植物细胞丰度平均为1.27×10⁶个/m³,3 月份的平均丰度显著高于4、5 月份(P<0.01); 优势种主要为冰河拟星杆藻(Asterionopsis glacialis)、加拉星平藻(Asteroplanus karianus)、密联角毛藻(Chaetoceros densus)和夜光藻(Noctiluca scintillans), 浮游植物群落演替明显, 由3 月份硅藻控制逐步过渡到4、5 月份硅/甲藻共同控制; 相对较低的硝酸盐水平是导致4、5 月份浮游植物丰度显著低于3 月份的主要原因; 物种–环境数据的冗余分析(RDA)结果显示, 温度、硝酸盐含量是控制崂山湾春季浮游植物分布的重要环境因子。     

Semi-Probabilistic Evaluation of System Redundancy for Existing Offshore Structures

In this paper, a new definition of structure system redundancy is proposed in view of the various measures for structure redundancy. By introducing the terms of structure system failure at the mechanism level and equivalent reliability index, the safety for existing offshore platforms can be evaluated by the semi-probabilistic method presented in this paper. Some numerical examples are given and satisfactory results have been obtained.     

Assessment of reliability in water distribution networks using entropy based measures

Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.     

The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

上海水源地毗邻湖库浮游植物群落结构的季节变化及其影响因子

为改善城市水源地及毗邻水域的水质管理,2019年11月至2020年11月分别在青草沙水库中央沙水域和金泽水库南白荡水域开展了4个季度的采样调查.运用综合营养状态指数(TLI(Σ))对水体营养状态等级进行综合评估,并采用主成分分析(PCA)、冗余分析(RDA)和相关性分析等方法研究了浮游植物群落特征与环境因子的关系.结果表明:中央沙和南白荡水域TLI (Σ)范围分别为57.5~59.0、54.1~56.1,2个水体均处于轻度富营养状态;两者分别鉴定出浮游植物7门104属184种、8门96属172种;蓝藻门是中央沙水域全年浮游植物构成的主要门类,其次为硅藻门、绿藻门,而南白荡浮游植物群落结构季节性演替明显,优势门类由硅藻门/隐藻门-蓝藻门-隐藻门/硅藻门变化,浮游植物细胞密度季节平均值变化范围分为3.00×10⁷~1.61×10⁸ cells/L、4.29×10⁶~6.59×10⁷ cells/L;鉴定出2个水体浮游植物的优势类群分别有4门17属、5门13属,中央沙水域全年的主要优势类群为假鱼腥藻属(Pseudanabaena)和长孢藻属(Dolichospermum),而南白荡春冬季的主要优势类群为小环藻属(Cyclotella)、隐藻属(Cryptomonas)和蓝隐藻属(Chroomonas),夏秋季主要优势类群为假鱼腥藻属、平裂藻属(Merismopedia)和微囊藻属(Microcystis);中央沙水域浮游植物群落结构变化主要与总氮、总磷、水温等环境因子有关,而南白荡主要与水温、总溶解性盐等环境因子有关,水体流通性差异对此起关键作用.     

生态最相关水文指标的优选及其在洞庭湖环境流量估算中的应用

水文改变指标(IHA)能够较为全面地描述水文状况,在评估水文情势改变及其生态系统影响方面具有广泛的应用.尽管该指标体系较为完善,但是数量众多的水文变量仍然存在信息冗余问题.根据洞庭湖城陵矶水文站1955-2014年的径流量数据,采用主成分分析(PCA)筛选了生态最相关水文指标(ERHIs),结合ERHIs改进了用于估算环境流量的变化范围法(RVA),并将其应用在洞庭湖出口的环境流量估算中.基于PCA选取了年最大90日流量、年最小3日流量、年最小流量出现时间、3月流量、6月流量、流量逆转次数和低流量年内平均历时7个变量作为洞庭湖出口的ERHIs.纵向和横向的对比分析都表明选取的ERHIs是合理的.ERHIs不仅有效缓解了IHA的冗余性问题,还有利于抓住最关键的生态水文变量.根据ERHIs改进的RVA方法在设定洞庭湖出口环境流量时,极大地简化原来的众多管理目标,对生态水文研究、水资源管理和生态保护都具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义.     

省级气象宽带网可靠性设计

气象业务的发展和社会需求的增长,对广域宽带网络系统提出更高要求,不但要求传输的数据量大,时效性强,而且要求其可靠性高。目前各省级气象局的宽带网可靠性设计,大都采用降级备份,无法做到双链路自动切换、无缝备份,难以满足气象业务7×24 h从不间断的实际需求,网络可靠性有待进一步提高。该文提出一种基于双向转发检测 (BFD) 和策略路由技术的网络可靠性设计方案,应用该方案不仅使网络结构和带宽有大幅提升,还能实现业务分流、链路冗余和故障自动切换,提高气象宽带网的可靠性水平。该方案经严格测试后,已依托广东省气象宽带网得以实现并投入业务运行,效果良好。同时,该设计对其他省级气象网络建设有一定参考价值。