Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

昆仑山口大地震与地形变异常的讨论

针对昆仑山口大地震，总结了多种地形变（大地测量）手段所显示的异常变化及其时空分布，结果显示：8．1级大震前存在空间尺度大，时间尺度的地形变前兆异常，简要介绍了相关的异常图像，给出了初步解释，并对未来震情的发展进行了探讨，认为近期内强震活动向华北迁移的可能性不大。     

APPLICATION OF MAP AND FILE INFORMATIONVISUALIZATION SYSTEM TO COMPREHENSIVEDIVISION OF NATURAL DISASTERS- Takingthe ChangjiangValleg as an Example

In recent years，scholars at home and abroad have method，and that vanous disasters would be analyzed assynthetically studied natural dlsaste‘theoretically and an Integral．SHI Peilun（1991）putforwad a scientificmethodologlcally，as well as its cases analys。s（CND，term—regional disaster system，which Indicates that1987； MA et al，1990； MARBLE，1990； NE et al，the situation of a disaster（calamity loss）results from1999； PATAK et al，1982； SHI，1991；VAN et al，h…     

陕西秦巴山区农业自然资源开发利用

农业自然资源据其在农业利用过程中的地位可分为两类:一类是生成农业自然资源的环境,另一类为可资直接利用的自然生成物(即狭义的农业自然资源)。陕西秦巴山区自然环境的主要特点是:复合山体高峻庞大,地跨暖温带和北亚热带,垂直分异明显。区内有:森林、草场、野生生物、林特产与农作物等多种农业自然资源。据此,提出了本区农业自然资源的开发利用途径。     

首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

The solubility of iron sulphides in synthetic and natural waters at ambient temperature

A critical evaluation of literature values for the solubility products, K _sp ^NBS = [Fe²⁺][HS^–] Fe²⁺ HS^– (H _NBS ⁺ )^–1, of various iron sulphide phases results in consensus values for the pKs of 2.95 ± 0.1 for amorphous ferrous sulphide, 3.6 ± 0.2 for mackinawite, 4.4 ± 0.1 for greigite, 5.1 ± 0.1 for pyrrhotite, 5.25 ± 0.2 for troilite and 16.4 ± 1.2 for pyrite.Where the analogous ion activity products have been measured in anoxic freshwaters in which there is evidence for the presence of solid phase FeS, the values lie within the range of 2.6–3.22, indicating that amorphous iron sulphide is the controlling phase. The single value for a groundwater of 2.65 (2.98 considering carbonate complexation) agrees. In seawater four values range between 3.85 to 4.2, indicating that mackinawite or greigite may be the controlling phase. The single low value of 2.94 is in a situation where particularly high fluxes of Fe (II) and S (–II) may result in the preferential precipitation of amorphous iron sulphide. Formation of framboidal pyrite in these sulphidic environments may occur in micro-niches and does not appear to influence bulk concentrations. Calculations show that the formation of Fe₂S₂ species probably accounts for very little of the iron or sulphide in most natural waters. Previously reported stability constants for the formation of Fe (HS)₂ and (Fe (HS)₃)^– are shown to be suspect, and these species are also thought to be negligible in natural waters. In completely anoxic pore waters polysulphides also have a negligible effect on speciation, but in tidal sediments they may reach appreciable concentrations and lead to the direct formation of pyrite. Concentrations of iron and sulphide in pore waters can be controlled by the more soluble iron sulphide phase. The change in the IAP with depth within the sediment may reflect ageing of the solid phase or a greater flux of Fe (II) and S (–II) nearer the sediment surface. This possible kinetic influence on the value of IAPs has implications for their use in geochemical studies involving phase formation.     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.     

Coupled and complex: Human-environment interaction in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

Complexity theory has received considerable attention over the past decade from a wide variety of disciplines. Some who write on this topic suggest that complexity theory will lead to a unifying understanding of complex phenomena; others dismiss it as a passing and disruptive fad. We suggest that for the analysis of coupled natural/human systems, the truth emerges from the middle ground. As an approach focused as much on the connections among system elements as the elements themselves, we argue that complexity theory provides a useful conceptual framework for the study of coupled natural/human systems. It is, if nothing else, a framework that leads us to ask interesting questions about, for example, sustainability, resilience, threshold events, and predictability.In this paper we attempt to demystify the ongoing discussions on complexity theory by linking its evocative and overloaded terminology to real-world processes. We illustrate how a shift in focus from system elements to connections among elements can lead to meaningful insight into human-environment interactions that might otherwise be overlooked. We ground our discussion in ongoing interdisciplinary research surrounding Yellowstone National Park’s northern elk winter range; a tightly coupled natural/human system that has been the center of debate, conflict, and compromise for more than 135 years.