Casualties in dry bulk shipping (1963–1996)

In recent years, bulk carriers have been identified with high risks of catastrophic structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study, based upon Lloyd's of London casualty records, identified four risk factors that had significant, independent effect upon the likelihood of a bulk carrier foundering. The risk of foundering increased with the age of the ship, and was related to the ship's flag of registration. Most importantly, however, increased risks were found for heavy cargoes of iron ore and scrap steel or iron, and for trading routes to the Far East and from Europe to North America. Additional safety measures, in particular regarding ship design and high-risk trades, may well be necessary to reduce the high casualty rates.     

Deterioration of the volcanic kerb and pavement stones in a humid environment in the city centre of Izmir, Turkey

?zmir is the third largest city in Turkey and has being the centre of art, culture, tourism and trade activities throughout the 5,000 years of its history. Natural stones brought from different parts of the world have been widely used for construction of the prestigious buildings, monuments and roads etc., in the past in the city. Renovation of the street pavements and public gathering areas in the city centre has been undertaken by the Metropolitan Municipality in 2000 and continued through the year of 2001. These renovation activities have mainly been carried out in the streets running parallel to the sea shore. Volcanic rocks brought from the Central Anatolia Ankara-Gölba?? (andesites) and Kayseri-?ncesu (tuffs) have been used in the renovation works. These rocks have shown extensive deteriorations within 4 years of their usage between 2001 and 2005 under the influence of different environmental factors. In this study, the deteriorations developed in the recently placed volcanic rocks used as kerb and pavement stones in the city centre of ?zmir in the light of their mineralogical, chemical, physical and mechanical properties, used locations and the environmental factors are presented.     

Determining Q of near-surface materials from Rayleigh waves

High-frequency (≥2 Hz) Rayleigh wave phase velocities can be inverted to shear (S)-wave velocities for a layered earth model up to 30 m below the ground surface in many settings. Given S-wave velocity (V_S), compressional (P)-wave velocity (V_P), and Rayleigh wave phase velocities, it is feasible to solve for P-wave quality factor Q_P and S-wave quality factor Q_S in a layered earth model by inverting Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients. Model results demonstrate the plausibility of inverting Q_S from Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients. Contributions to the Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients from Q_P cannot be ignored when Vs/V_P reaches 0.45, which is not uncommon in near-surface settings. It is possible to invert Q_P from Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients in some geological setting, a concept that differs from the common perception that Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients are always far less sensitive to Q_P than to Q_S. Sixty-channel surface wave data were acquired in an Arizona desert. For a 10-layer model with a thickness of over 20 m, the data were first inverted to obtain S-wave velocities by the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method and then quality factors were determined by inverting attenuation coefficients.     

东南沿海地震区地震活动特性与未来趋势分析

根据地震资料，对东南沿海地震区地震活动特下及未来趋势进行了初步分析与研究，结果表明：（１）从地震活动轮回分析，东南沿海地震区从１９５９年开始的第五个轮回中的地震活动时段，估计将延续到２０３１年前后结束，而后转入本轮回的平静时段；（２）２０００年以前，研究区有可能发生１次Ｍｓ≥６．０地震，到２００５到则最多发生２次；（３）东南沿海地震区下一次发生Ｍｓ≥６．０地震的地区可能在河源－邵武地震带上，尤其可     

浅谈环境地质与环境保护

环境问题已成为全世界共同关心的问题。地质环境是影响人类生存的重要因素。本文述及了因自然地质因素引起的地震灾害、火山灾害、滑坡灾害等，以及因人为地质因素引发的水污染灾害、水库失事灾害、水土流失、沙漠扩大灾害等诸方面内容，指出在今后应重视对地质灾害的监测和预防。     

地下水中氟形成的控制因素及其分布规律

本文研究了地下水中氟元素形成的主要控制因素及其分布规律。结果表明，地下水氟的形成与断裂构造，地下水温度、气候条件、含水介质及其上覆土层中的氟含量，地下水的酸碱度与径流条件有密切的关系。深成断裂脉状地下水和萤石矿区的地下水氟含量高，不有作为生活饮用水源； 而浅层的地下水氟含量较低，大多数仍作为生活饮用水源。     

Effects of geology and human activity on the dynamics of salt-water intrusion in three coastal aquifers in southern Spain

 Mathematical modelling of salt-water intrusion processes in three aquifers on the southern coast of Spain (Río Verde, Río Vélez and Castell de Ferro) reveals that, although all three systems are subject to the same climate and seasonal over-exploitation, geological and human factors have very different effects on the dynamics of contamination. In the Río Verde aquifer, the most important influence is the high volume of extractions occurring during the dry season; in Río Vélez, the intrusion is strongly controlled by infiltration of water from the river to the aquifer, and, in the Castell de Ferro system, an intensely karstified carbonate massif lying in contact with both the sea water and the detrital aquifer represents the main entrance point for influx of sea water and subsequent washing of the aquifer. We have undertaken a mathematical simulation of various possible measures to counteract intrusion, according to the specific characteristics of the process in each aquifer. These measures include artificial recharge, use of natural recharge from the river as a hydraulic barrier, and the construction of a low-permeability barrier. Received: 5 December 1995 · Accepted: 12 April 1996     

运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性.根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性.对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像.根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4, 3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性.所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现.实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型.     

川西亚高山三个森林群落的湿林冠蒸发速率

于3个假说和林冠上方2m处的气象变量，采用Penman-Monteith组合模型估算了一个生长季节内川西亚高山林区分别以云杉(SF)、冷杉(FF)和白桦(BF)为优势树种的3个林分的湿林冠蒸发速率(Er)。研究结果表明，SF、FF和BF的湿林冠蒸发量(E)分别为44．51mm、88．51mm和57．8mm，分别占总降雨量的9．2％、16．6％和10．2％。与SF和BF相比，FF具有最高的月平均Er和蒸发比例。SF、FF和BF的平均Er分别为0．097mm／h(变化范围：0．028-0．487mm／h)、0．242mm／h(变化范围：0．068～0．711mm／h)和0．149mm／h(0．060～0．576mm／h)。最高和最低的月平均Er分别在6月(SF、FF和BF分别为0．120mm／h、0．317mm／h和0．169mm／h)和10月(SF、FF和BF分别为0．083mm／h、0．187mm／h和0．101mm／h)。8：00至16：00期间的平均点Er显著高于0：00至8：00以及16：00至0：00期间的平均Er。Er显著的日变化和月变化主要归因于林冠上方的太阳辐射、空气温度和相对湿度的变化。