Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the mechanisms leading to the deglaciation of past continental northern hemisphere ice sheets with the CLIMBER–GREMLINS coupled model

A coupling procedure between a climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2.3) and a 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model (GREMLINS) has been elaborated. The resulting coupled model describes the evolution of atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere and their mutual interactions. It is used to perform several simulations of the Last Deglaciation period to identify the physical mechanisms at the origin of the deglaciation process. Our baseline experiment, forced by insolation and atmospheric CO₂, produces almost complete deglaciation of past northern hemisphere continental ice sheets, although ice remains over the Cordilleran region at the end of the simulation and also in Alaska and Eastern Siberia. Results clearly demonstrate that, in this study, the melting of the North American ice sheet is critically dependent on the deglaciation of Fennoscandia through processes involving switches of the thermohaline circulation from a glacial mode to a modern one and associated warming of the northern hemisphere. A set of sensitivity experiments has been carried out to test the relative importance of both forcing factors and internal processes in the deglaciation mechanism. It appears that the deglaciation is primarily driven by insolation. However, the atmospheric CO₂ modulates the timing of the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, and results relative to Laurentide illustrate the existence of threshold CO₂ values, that can be translated in terms of critical temperature, below which the deglaciation is impeded. Finally, we show that the beginning of the deglaciation process of the Laurentide ice sheet may be influenced by the time at which the shift of the thermohaline circulation from one mode to the other occurs.     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

A MESO-β SCALE SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF BOREAL FOREST ECOSYSTEM ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE

Based on the Intensive Field Campaign(IFC-1)data of Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study(BOREAS).a three-dimensional meso-β scale model is used to simulate the effect of boreal forests onthe lower atmosphere.A fine horizontal resolution of 2 km×2 km is used in order to distinguish thevegetative heterogeneity in the boreal region.A total of 20×25 grid points cover the entire sub-modeling area in BOREAS' South Study Area(SSA).The ecosystem types and their coverage ineach grid square are extracted from the North American Land Cover Characteristics Data Base(NALCCD)generated by the U.S.Geographical Survey(USGS)and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln(UNL).The topography of the study area is taken from the Digital Elevation Map(DEM)of USGS.The model outputs include the components of the energy balance budget within the canopyand at the ground.the turbulence parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer and the wind.temperature and humidity profiles extending up to a height of 1500 m.In addition to the fine timeand spatial step,the unique feature of the present model is the incorporation of both dynamic andbiological effects of the Boreal forest into the model parameterization scheme.The model resultscompare favorably with BOREAS' IFC-1 data in 1994 when the forest was in the luxuriant growingperiod.     

Small-scale fisheries reform: Expectations,hopes and dreams of “a better life for all”

This article follows the transformation process in the fishing industry with specific reference to the emergence of a limited commercial sector. In the policy domain, this sector was accommodated through a “one size fits all approach” to access rights, requiring it to compete with the large-scale commercial sector for the same resources. The strategies and actions of successful and unsuccessful applicants in four fishing communities in South Africa are examined. The paper identifies the key challenges facing the limited commercial sector as being the lack of skills to complete the application process, start up capital or credit, organisation and financial and business acumen. It highlights the disjuncture between the Marine Living Resources Act's stated aims of sustainability, equity and stability and the realities of implementation at a grassroots level.     

The impact of the M2 internal tide on data-assimilative model estimates of the surface tide

We use a synthetic data experiment to assess the accuracy of ocean tides estimated from satellite altimetry data, with emphasis on the impact of the phase-locked internal tide, which has a surface expression of several centimeters near its sites of genesis. Previous tidal estimates have regarded this signal as a random measurement error; however, it is deterministic and not scale-separated from the barotropic (surface) tide around complex bathymetric features. The synthetic data experiments show that the internal tide has a negligible impact on the barotropic tidal fields inferred under these circumstances, and the barotropic dissipation (a quadratic functional of the tidal fields) is in good agreement with the energetics of the three-dimensional regional primitive equations model which is the source of the synthetic data.     

Underice Operation of SJT-5 ROV

- The authors have used a low-cost ROV of observation type for underice surveying of the Nen-Jiang Cross-river oil pipe line in the Da Qing oil field. The operation method, process and the safety measures for severe cold areas are presented. The fruitful tries and experience may be useful to ROV operators in severe cold areas.     

Binogeochemical process of major elements in sinking particulate of Nansha coral reef lagoons,South

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