Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.     

Gravitational collapse and equilibrium conditions of a toroidal vortex with thermal pressure

We found the equilibrium conditions for a self-gravitating toroidal vortex by taking thermal pressure into account. These conditions are shown to significantly differ from those for a disk or a sphere. The evolution of a thin vortex turns it into a compact vortex that loses mechanical stability for low masses at a polytropic index γ<4/3 but retains stability for sufficiently high masses and densities determined by the velocity circulation in the vortex.     

澳门附近海域沉积物污染状况及特征分析

掌握澳门附近海域沉积物的污染状况及特征,对于合理安排澳门海洋海岸工程疏浚泥的海洋倾倒,防止造成海洋污染有十分重要的意义。根据1997—1999年连续三年对澳门附近主要区域的海洋沉积物采样测定结果,通过分析认为澳门附近海域沉积物污染具有下列特征:1)沉积物中重金属和油类含量普遍较高,除了总Hg外均高于珠江口海区的其他港口;2)沉积物中污染物的分布受人类活动的影响明显,澳门内港受船只排污、码头作业、陆地工业和生活污水排放的影响,是澳门附近海域沉积物污染最为严重区域;3)受水质交换的影响明显,澳门外港、路环岛东北等区域受珠江径流影响水质交换较快,沉积物中污染物的含量较低,而内港由于水质交换较差,沉积物中污染物的含量相对较高;4)与沉积物的成分组成(吸附)有关,大部分污染物与沉积物中粉砂有较好的相关性,表明粉砂对污染物质有较广泛性的吸附能力,尤其是Cu、Zn、Cd、油类、有机质。     

Poisson-Logistic二元复合极值模型在平台甲板标高设计中的应用

考虑到平台所在海区台风出现的频次及其诱发之风、浪、潮、流极端海况联合出现的概率特性，本文推导出Poisson—Logistic二元复合极值模式，并以平台甲板标高进行实例计算。新模式增加了概率模型的物理内涵，解决了Logistic模型阈值选取的任意性。对海洋工程极端海况荷载组合预测具有广泛的应用前景。     

Long-Period Distribution of Wave Heights and Its Application

This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.     

渤海南部海域年极值波浪和设计波浪的特征研究

本文用统计计算和后报方法，获得了本海域不同海区多年年极值波高（Ｈ１／１０）资料。用Ｐ－Ⅲ型和短期测波资料频率分析方法，估算了各海区的设计波高，并依据文献［３］计算出对应的平均周期。用Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｆｆ适合度方法检验所得的结果表明，依Ｐ－Ⅲ型方法拟配的理论频率曲线与经验点十分吻合，从而确定了本海域不同海区最佳的设计波浪。分析本海域年极值波浪的基本特征表明，本海域除了渤海湾北部海区以外，主浪向一般为ＮＮＥ向，渤海海峡区的年极值波高和设计波高均为最大，而向莱州湾及渤海湾沿岸海区逐渐减小；在沿岸海区，由龙口至黄河口一带的极值波高较大。     

波浪作用下岸坡和海底平衡条件的研究

提出波浪作用下岸坡和海底动态和静态平衡条件的数学模型。在已建立的推移质泥沙体积输沙率基本关系式的基础上,根据连续方程,计算出底坡、泥沙、波浪三要素在动态和静态平衡情况下的关系式,得出反映这种关系的底坡平衡函数曲线图。用实际资料对这一函数曲线进行了验证,并对实际资料相对模型的某些差异作出解释。     

Bacterial sulphate reduction in sediments of a european salt marsh: Acid-volatile and tin-reducible products

The products of ³⁵S-sulphate reduction by sedimentary bacteria were measured at two sites in a salt marsh on the east coast of England. Non-acid-volatile products were measured, after acid-volatile sulphide was removed, by their reduction to sulphide by digestion with tin. The proportion of the sulphate reduced to tin-reducible products varied between 25% in a salt marsh pan and 61% in creek sediment, over a 0–25 cm depth profile. There were also variations with depth at each site in the proportions of sulphate reduced to tin-reducible products. Further examination revealed differences in the proportions of sulphate which were reduced to free sulphide, acid-volatile sulphide, sulphur or pyrite at the two sites. The data suggest that previous work which did not measure non-acid-volatile products underestimated sulphate reduction rates by three-fold in the creek site, but by only one third in the pan.