Exploring the Hidden Potential of Common Spatial Data Models to Visualize Uncertainty

Common Spatial Data Models (SDMs) such the vector, raster, and quadtree have well understood and widely practiced conventions of storage and visualization. This paper explores what happens when the conventions of visualization are not strictly adhered to, and the SDMs are used in an atypical fashion. A framework based on a quasi similarity measure is presented, which quantifies (in terms of "distance") the relationship between the storage format and the visualization output, following an accepted protocol. This research used a transformation process (Tp) to define this distance. Then, the atypical use of the quadtree SDM to represent choropleth spatial boundary uncertainty and attribute uncertainty was quantified using the same framework. This research shows that if a SDM is used outside of its original context, then the distance between the storage format and its visual output can alter; in our case, the distance decreased. This result was interpreted as evidence for the creation of a new spatial data structure. The formalization of the relationship between an SDM and its visual output will be valuable for future exploration of the non-conventional visualization of common SDMs.     

On the Uncertainty of Local Shape of Lines and Surfaces

Modeling line or surface phenomena digitally involves two tasks: discretization of the phenomenon, which yields a finite set of data, and subsequent interpolation, which reconstructs the continuum. Many mathematical techniques exist for the latter task, and most methods require a number of parameters to be specified. The shape of digital line or surface models between the data points (that is, the local shape) and the information derived from these models both depend on the selected method and, possibly, on the specification of parameters. The reconstruction of the continuum thus introduces uncertainty. This paper examines the sources and effects of this type of uncertainty. For this purpose, the modeling of lines and surfaces is separated into an abstraction, an implementation, and measurement. The individual factors affecting uncertainty of local shape in each step are identified and discussed. The paper concludes that local shape uncertainty, unlike positional uncertainty of given data, cannot be numerically assessed. Instead, measures of plausibility have to be used to denote the quality of digital models of lines and surfaces. Finally, the concept and potential problems of future empirical investigations are discussed.     

Visualizing Geospatial Information Uncertainty: What We Know and What We Need to Know

Developing reliable methods for representing and managing information uncertainty remains a persistent and relevant challenge to GIScience. Information uncertainty is an intricate idea, and recent examinations of this concept have generated many perspectives on its representation and visualization, with perspectives emerging from a wide range of disciplines and application contexts. In this paper, we review and assess progress toward visual tools and methods to help analysts manage and understand information uncertainty. Specifically, we report on efforts to conceptualize uncertainty, decision making with uncertainty, frameworks for representing uncertainty, visual representation and user control of displays of information uncertainty, and evaluative efforts to assess the use and usability of visual displays of uncertainty. We conclude by identifying seven key research challenges in visualizing information uncertainty, particularly as it applies to decision making and analysis.     

Development of Bayesian stock assessment methods for Namibian orange roughy Hoplostethus atlanticus

Bayesian methods are useful in fisheries stock assessment because they provide a conceptually elegant and statistically rigorous approach to making decisions under uncertainty. The application of Bayesian stock assessment methods in the management of Namibian orange roughy Hoplosthethus atlanticus within the 200 mile EEZ of Namibia is reviewed. Time-series of relative abundance are short and their reliability in indicating abundance trends is uncertain. The development of informative prior probability density functions (pdfs) for the constants of proportionality (q) for hydro-acoustic, commercial trawl swept area, and research trawl swept area indices produced statistically consistent prior estimates of absolute abundance for each of the three grounds where more than one index of abundance was available. The posterior pdfs for stock assessment model parameters were used to account for uncertainty in evaluations of the potential consequences of alternative harvesting policies under a stock reduction model in which catch removals were assumed to account for any declines. It appears that all orange roughy stocks off Namibia have been depleted below the limit reference point (50% of long-term unfished biomass). However, the stock reduction model could not easily account for the large declines in indices on the four fishing grounds over the period from 1995 until 1999 when the informative priors for q were applied. In the 2000 stock assessment, the Bayesian procedure was updated to account formally for uncertainty in model structures that could explain the decline in abundance. The possibility of very low stock abundance could still not be discounted when these uncertainties were accounted for. Although this most recent methodology applies more statistical rigour, its complexity has hindered its acceptance in Namibia. However, if it is worth quantifying risks and uncertainties in future stock assessments for the provision of precautionary management advice, it is proposed that the assessment protocols adopted be probabilistic to account for uncertainty in model parameters, that careful attention be given to subjective judgements about their inputs and the representation of uncertainty within them, and that, where appropriate, alternative hypotheses about stock abundance and mechanisms for catchability and stock decline be taken into account.     

A Transition in Improving Maps: The ColorBrewer Example

Many map makers seek to share their map design efforts by distributing styles, fonts, templates, software, tips, and other sorts of instructions. For example, <www.mapsymbols.com> offers links to a variety of symbol and font design efforts by mapmakers who use ESRI's GIS products. In this article, I will reflect on the format for offering map design assistance that I have used in ColorBrewer (Figure 1). ColorBrewer <www.ColorBrewer.org> is a web tool for selecting color schemes for thematic maps. It has elicited a trickle of enthusiastic e-mail from pleased users who tell me that their maps are improved, and they are relieved to save time on a design challenge for which they are not confident of their skills. ColorBrewer is described in detail in two papers (Harrower and Brewer, in press; Brewer et al. 2003). It is described briefly here to provide context for my reflections on a transition in cartography toward assisting people who want to represent their information spatially but who have little or no training in the conventions and principles of map design and data representation.     

Customized Visualization of Natural Hazards Assessment Results and Associated Uncertainties through Interactive Functionality

Communication of natural hazard assessment results is crucial to protect people and infrastructure from devastating impacts of extreme events. While hazard maps provide important information on potential impacts, their interpretation and the general knowledge exchange between stakeholders is often difficult. Web-based information systems contain the potential to support hazard management tasks by fast distribution and customization of hazard visualizations through interactive functionality. Cartographic principles are, however, often ignored in existing web-based visualizations which leads to poor graphical results and consequently to an impairment of the information flow. While these issues need to be solved, a new task is already waiting: the integration of uncertainty information into hazard visualizations. Since many hazard management activities rely on hazard assessment results, communication of associated uncertainties among experts is vital.

The challenge of this research is to overcome these existing shortcomings by combining high quality cartographic visualizations of natural hazard data as well as associated uncertainties with interactive functionality. The resulting web-based cartographic information system will convene the needs of natural hazard specialists by offering a high level of customization: the suggested visualizations include various cartographic techniques such as the application of textures, bars, and interpolated surfaces. The possibility to interactively select particular data sets, customize colors, choose dimensions, query attribute data, and include uncertainty information facilitates the interpretation of complex data and finally the communication among natural hazard specialists.

In this article we summarize requirements that have to be considered, suggest functionalities necessary to perform natural hazards management tasks, and present a prototype of an expert system for the visualization and exploration of natural hazards assessments results and associated uncertainties.     

The orange roughy fishery of Namibia: lessons to be learned about managing a developing fishery

Exploration for orange roughy Hoplostethus atlanticus in Namibia started in 1994 and within 12 months several aggregations had been discovered, suggesting the existence of a biomass sufficient to support a viable fishery. At that early stage it was realized that few, if any, recognized management procedures existed for newly developing fisheries, especially with the paucity of data such as existed on Namibian orange roughy. The development of the Namibian orange roughy fishery is reviewed to document the management strategies implemented and how the management of the fishery evolved. The first six years of the fishery are described, including the three-year exploration phase, several years of profitable exploitation, and the severe decline in catch rates. Whether the decline is attributable to fishing mortality or to change in the aggregating behaviour of orange roughy, or both, is not clear. Although many aspects of the precautionary approach were followed, a risk analysis applied and a number of innovative management methods implemented (e.g. incentives to promote exploratory fishing, use of Bayesian statistical methods, implementation of a management plan for long-term total allowable catches), the aggregating biomass declined to between 10 and 50% of virgin levels within the six years. The management methods applied are evaluated in the light of the severe decline in catch rate experienced in 1998 and 1999, so that others may learn from the experience.     

A Bayesian state-space model for mixed-stock migrations,with application to Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus

Management of fisheries that exploit mixed-stock populations relies on assumptions made concerning stock structure and mixing in different areas. To address the problems of accounting for uncertainty when formulating scientific advice for the management of highly migratory fish stocks, management decisions need to be based upon assessment models that represent plausible alternative hypotheses for stock structure and migration patterns of the exploited populations. We present a multi-stock, multi-fleet, multi-area, seasonally structured Bayesian state-space model in which different stocks spawn in spatially different areas and the mixing of these stocks is explicitly accounted for in the absence of sufficient tagging data with which to estimate migration rates. The model is applied to the Northeast Atlantic mackerel Scomber scombrus population, accounting for the annual spawning-feeding-overwintering migration patterns of the three spawning components, together with uncertainty in the extent to which the southern component migrates north to feed and overwinter, and consequently the extent to which it mixes with the other components and is subject to exploitation. The model allows the effect of exploitation on the individual components to be assessed, and the results suggest that the fishing mortality of southern spawning adults was insensitive to the extent to which they migrated north.     

Evaluating the Usability of a Tool for Visualizing the Uncertainty of the Future Global Water Balance

We describe the development of software that is intended to enable decision makers (and their scientific advisors) to visualize uncertainties associated with the future global water balance. This is an important task because the future water balance is a function of numerous factors that are not precisely known, including the historical climatology, the model of potential evapotranspiration, the soil water holding capacity, and the global circulation models (GCMs) used to predict the effect of increased CO₂ in the atmosphere. In developing the software, we utilized the principles of usability engineering. In our case, we utilized six steps: prototype development, evaluation by domain experts, software revision, evaluation by usability experts, software revision, and evaluation by decision makers. Although this approach led to an improved piece of software, decision makers should have been involved earlier in the software design process, possibly at step two (instead of the domain experts). Decision makers found the notion of uncertainty discomforting, but their positive comments regarding the software suggest that it could prove beneficial, especially with improvements in spatial and temporal resolution. One interesting characteristic of our approach was the utilization of a wall-size display measuring 25 x 6 feet. The wall-size display engendered great interest, but determining whether it is truly effective will require a study that directly compares it with more traditional approaches.