基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件

在序线性拓扑空间里研究了含有集约束向量极值问题的最优性条件,并建立了充分性和必要性条件.     

The Role of Aga Khan Rural Support Programme in Rural Development in the Karakorum, Hindu Kush ＆ Himalayan Region： Examples from the Northern Mountainous Belt of Pakistan

Pakistan is predominantly a mountainous country where rural development activities are characterised by inconsistency, politically motivated short-term projects without proper feedback. Since the inception of the country, the top-down approach has been followed, and the same development plans that were formulated for the plain areas have been extended to the mountains without any modification. In doing so, neither the participation of the local communities was cared for, nor the mountain specificities were considered in the planning process. Moreover, the representation of the local inhabitants was improper and contradictory to the facts. This biased approach has been one of the main causes for the failure of development projects carried out by different agencies of the Government. Contrary to the perception of the state authorities, the mountain communities proved to be more open to accept new approaches and demonstrated the capacity and capability of being a dependable development partner. In this paper, a detailed account of the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme （AKRSP） has been presented to assess and evaluate the approach followed by this non-governmental organisation （NGO）, and the response of the local inhabitants as collaborators in the development process. The achievements of the AKRSP from project planning, implementation and monitoring can be adopted as a model for rural development not only in the plains, but also in the mountainous areas of the developing countries in the world.     

Geometric Derivation of the Delaunay Variables and Geometric Phases

We derive the classical Delaunay variables by finding a suitable symmetry action of the three torus T³ on the phase space of the Kepler problem, computing its associated momentum map and using the geometry associated with this structure. A central feature in this derivation is the identification of the mean anomaly as the angle variable for a symplectic S ¹ action on the union of the non-degenerate elliptic Kepler orbits. This approach is geometrically more natural than traditional ones such as directly solving Hamilton–Jacobi equations, or employing the Lagrange bracket. As an application of the new derivation, we give a singularity free treatment of the averaged J ₂-dynamics (the effect of the bulge of the Earth) in the Cartesian coordinates by making use of the fact that the averaged J ₂-Hamiltonian is a collective Hamiltonian of the T³ momentum map. We also use this geometric structure to identify the drifts in satellite orbits due to the J ₂ effect as geometric phases.     

Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.     

Spatial Variability of Rock Depth in Bangalore Using Geostatistical, Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Models

Geospatial technology is increasing in demand for many applications in geosciences. Spatial variability of the bed/hard rock is vital for many applications in geotechnical and earthquake engineering problems such as design of deep foundations, site amplification, ground response studies, liquefaction, microzonation etc. In this paper, reduced level of rock at Bangalore, India is arrived from the 652 boreholes data in the area covering 220 km². In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock in the subsurface of Bangalore and to study the spatial variability of the rock depth, Geostatistical model based on Ordinary Kriging technique, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been developed. In Ordinary Kriging, the knowledge of the semi-variogram of the reduced level of rock from 652 points in Bangalore is used to predict the reduced level of rock at any point in the subsurface of the Bangalore, where field measurements are not available. A new type of cross-validation analysis developed proves the robustness of the Ordinary Kriging model. ANN model based on multi layer perceptrons (MLPs) that are trained with Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation algorithm has been adopted to train the model with 90% of the data available. The SVM is a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing loss function has been used to predict the reduced level of rock from a large set of data. In this study, a comparative study of three numerical models to predict reduced level of rock has been presented and discussed.     

GPS变形监测平差计算及不确定度分析

全球定位系统（GPS）是一种全天候、高精度的连续定位系统,它以速度快、方法灵活多样、操作简便等优势被广泛应用于工程测量和变形监测中。结合水厂铁矿GPS边坡变形监测实例,对GPS监测网的星历预报、基线向量平差计算、网平差计算、结果及残差不确定度进行了细致分析研究,以验证GPS技术在边坡变形监测中的可靠性和精度。     

基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究

需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度.     

Prediction of local scour around circular piles under waves using a novel artificial intelligence approach

Abstract

The scour phenomena around vertical piles in oceans and under waves may influence the structure stability. Therefore, accurately predicting the scour depth is an important task in the design of piles. Empirical approaches often do not provide the required accuracy compared with data mining methods for modeling such complex processes. The main objective of this study is to develop three data-driven methods, locally weighted linear regression (LWLR), support vector machine (SVR), and multivariate linear regression (MLR) to predict the scour depth around vertical piles due to waves in a sand bed. It is the first effort to develop the LWLR to predict scour depth around vertical piles. The models simulate the scour depth mainly based on Shields parameter, pile Reynolds number, grain Reynolds number, Keulegan–Carpenter number, and sediment number. 111 laboratory datasets, derived from several experimental studies, were used for the modeling. The results indicated that the LWLR provided highly accurate predictions of the scour depths around piles (R?=?0.939 and RMSE = 0.075). Overall, this study demonstrated that the LWLR can be used as a valuable tool to predict the wave-induced scour around piles.     

基于矢量信号处理的水声定位系统

将传统的水声定位系统与矢量水听器相结合，设计了一种全新的轻便型长基线被动水声定位系统。介绍了系统的组成和工作原理，并结合近年来出现的矢量信号处理技术，设计了新的实时信号处理软件。经湖试和海试，系统的可行性得到了初步的验证。