专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Derived Wind Speed and Wave Parameters with Ocean Buoy Data in the North Indian Ocean

Results of comparison exercises carried out between the state-of-the-art TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived ocean surface wind speed and ocean wave parameters (significant wave height and wave period) and those measured by a set of ocean data buoys in the North Indian Ocean are presented in this article. Altimeter-derived significant wave height values exhibited rms deviation as small as ±0.3 m, and surface wind speed of ±1.6 m/s. These results are found consistent with those found for the Pacific Ocean. For estimation of ocean wave period, the spectral moments-based semiempirical approach, earlier applied on GEOSAT data, was extended to TOPEX/POSEIDON. For this purpose, distributions of first four years of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and climatology over the North Indian Ocean were analyzed and a new set of coefficients generated for estimation of wave period. It is shown that wave periods thus estimated from TOPEX/POSEIDON data (for the subsequent two years), when compared with independent data set of ocean data buoys deployed in the North Indian Ocean, exhibit improved accuracy (rms ~ ±1.4 nos) over those determined earlier with GEOSAT data.     

泥浆性能对定向钻进铺管孔壁稳定性的影响

本文通过对泥浆性能的分析,特别是对泥浆流变参数的控制与调节在定向钻进非开挖铺管中的作用及其护壁原理的分析,简要阐述了泥浆性能对定向钻进铺管孔壁稳定性的影响,对非开挖定向钻进铺管施工有一定的指导意义。     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.     

用激光测距资料解地球定向参数的模型改进

详细介绍了与SLR观测资料的高精度相适应的解EOP模型的改进，并且在复弧法中使用这个改进模型。当轨道参数为全局量，EOP参数为子弧量时，其中解极移运动Xp，Yp和日长变化率DUTIR的模型的更新，提高了解EOP的精度，特别提高了解DUTIR的精度；同时也提高了整个弧段的定轨精度。在EOP的改进模型中，以周日和半周日为周期的分量虽然对提高EOP本身的精度没有什么帮助，但是对整个弧段定轨精度的提高还是有益的。本文用1995—1999年LAGEOS-1的资料解得的EOP序列精度：Xp达0．43mas，Yp达0．41mas，DUTIR达0．022ms。90天弧长定轨残差好于2cm。     

Under stress permeability determination of the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone

In the underground waste isolation projects such as the ANDRA'one in the site of Bure, the transport properties of the surrounding rock mass is of fundamental importance. To measure very low permeability, we use the modified version of the pulse test proposed by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] which enables the intrinsic permeability, k, and the specific storage coefficient, S_s, of rocks such as mudstone to be characterized. In this paper, the special effort performed on the laboratory apparatus design, to ensure a good sensitivity of the rock response with respect to both parameters, k and S_s, is presented. In addition, two parameters identification procedures are proposed: the graphical method given by Hsieh et al. [Hsieh, P.A., Tracy, J.V., Neuzil, C.E., Bredehoeft, J.D., Silliman, S.E., 1981. A transient laboratory method for determining the hydraulic properties of ‘tight’ rocks — I. Theory. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr. Vol. 18, pp. 245-252] and a parameter identification based on the solution of an inverse problem. The efficiency of the apparatus design and the parameters identification procedures is then demonstrated though some pulse tests performed on the Meuse/Haute-Marne mudstone.     

线性向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型最小二乘估计的比较

研究了最小二乘准则下线性向量半参数模型的核估计、近邻估计及样条估计3种估计方法,分析了向量半参数模型与标量半参数模型在这几种估计方法中的差异。     

Macrozoobenthic biomass in the Bay of Seine (eastern English Channel)

The benthic biomass values of various trophic groups were studied for the first time at the scale of the entire Bay of Seine (50 × 100 km) in the eastern English Channel. Sampling was carried out before and after the winter of 1999. In both cruises the suspension feeders dominated (66% of the 12 gAFDW m^− 2 in 1998 and 56% of the 10 gAFDW m^− 2 in 1999).The common European ophiuroid Ophiothrix fragilis was the most important contributor to total biomass. The repartition of its patches (sometimes > 20 gAFDW m^− 2) cannot be explained by the environmental parameters recorded (viz., granulometry, organic matter and pigment content).     

电法勘探在常德市松散孔隙含水层中涌水量预测的应用

常德市水文地质及电测深、电测井的资料反映了孔隙水含水层涌水量的大小与含水层厚度、颗粒组分及其结构的多因素的复杂组合──—厚度（Ｍ）与视电阻率（ρ＿ｓ）的乘积密切相关，据此可预测单井涌水量。