Combined mine tremors source location and error evaluation in the Lubin Copper Mine (Poland)

A modified method of mine tremors location used in Lubin Copper Mine is presented in the paper. In mines where an intensive exploration is carried out a high accuracy source location technique is usually required. The effect of the flatness of the geophones array, complex geological structure of the rock mass and intense exploitation make the location results ambiguous in such mines. In the present paper an effective method of source location and location's error evaluations are presented, combining data from two different arrays of geophones. The first consists of uniaxial geophones spaced in the whole mine area. The second is installed in one of the mining panels and consists of triaxial geophones. The usage of the data obtained from triaxial geophones allows to increase the hypocenter vertical coordinate precision. The presented two-step location procedure combines standard location methods: P-waves directions and P-waves arrival times. Using computer simulations the efficiency of the created algorithm was tested. The designed algorithm is fully non-linear and was tested on the multilayered rock mass model of the Lubin Copper Mine, showing a computational better efficiency than the traditional P-wave arrival times location algorithm. In this paper we present the complete procedure that effectively solves the non-linear location problems, i.e. the mine tremor location and measurement of the error propagation.     

基于蒙特卡罗法的多级黄土滑坡可靠性分析

滑坡稳定性分析目前工程中一般采用极限平衡算法。为了确定滑坡的稳定性系数,在计算过程中要将岩土体、计算模型简化,忽略一些影响滑坡稳定的次要因素,把影响滑坡稳定的各种主要因素作为确定参数。由于滑坡岩土体本身的非均质性及其参数确定具有随机性和变异性,用唯一的稳定系数不能客观地反映整个滑坡的真实安全程度。以陕西省夏呀河滑坡为例,通过野外详细调查、工程勘探和室内土工试验,初步确定该滑坡存在四级滑动面,难以用简单的单一滑动面计算其稳定性。因此,先采用推力传递系数法对滑坡体上的四级滑坡分别进行滑坡稳定性计算,得到该滑坡体上的四级滑坡稳定系数。再采用蒙特卡罗法对该四级滑坡进行可靠性分析,得到其可靠度,定量地表达夏呀河四级滑坡的安全程度。同时对比分析夏呀河四级滑坡的稳定系数和失稳概率,综合评价该滑坡体上的四级滑坡的稳定性及其风险概率,为滑坡的工程治理及预测预警、灾害危险性评价提供依据。     

勃利盆地中生界地质特征与油气资源量计算

黑龙江省东部勃利盆地在早白垩世为陆缘断陷盆地。经晚白垩世和新近纪的构造反转改造后，呈改造残留型含油气、含煤盆地。该盆地在下白垩统发育有厚度较大的暗色泥岩和多套煤系地层。盆地内源岩有机质以生气为主，煤系地层为重要的气态烃的来源。在研究了勃利盆地中生界地质特征的基础上，运用蒙特卡罗法初步估算了盆地内的油气资源量，得出盆地油气资源量的概率分布函数图，取得不同概率下的油气资源量值。盆地的中部断陷为有利含油气区。研究结果为进一步在松辽盆地外围寻找油气资源提供了参考依据。     

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.     

Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值),并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格,以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集,采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速,构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速,并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果,而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低,这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。     

Radar cross section analysis of marine targets using a combining method of physical optics/geometric optics and a Monte-Carlo simulation

In this paper, the radar cross section of flat plates on ocean surfaces is statistically investigated. A combining method of physical optics and geometric optics is applied to establish an effective backscattering analysis procedure. This method is a high-frequency analysis method originally derived from a simplified Stratton-Chu integral equation, assuming that the radar is far away from the target so that Kirchhoff approximation is valid. A Monte-Carlo simulation method is adopted to statistically analyze the effects of undulated ocean surfaces. The ocean surfaces are randomly generated by Pierson-Moskowitz ocean wave spectrum and a directional distribution function. Numerical investigations are carried out for flat plates, with the same height and width but with different inclined angles, on ocean surfaces of various significant wave heights.     

几种非线性滤波算法的性能比较与分析

在非线性状态估计中,传统的扩展卡尔曼滤波通过线性化来实现高斯近似,由于截断误差的存在很难保证估计精度;而基本粒子滤波容易出现粒子退化,导致滤波发散。针对粒子滤波的两个基本假设：蒙特卡罗假设和重要采样假设,采用蒙特卡罗随机链的方法来提高粒子的多样性,并利用无味卡尔曼滤波来产生更高精度的替代分布,发展了无味粒子滤波。通过仿真实验证明,相比较扩展卡尔曼滤波和基本粒子滤波,改进后的无味粒子滤波算法性能更优越,对含有非线性非高斯的状态估计问题有更好的滤波效果。     

植被电磁散射的半空间模型研究

本文给出了地面植被电磁散射的半空间模型研究方法.在以往的相关文献中,均采用自由空间格林函数求解单个叶片散射体的散射场,本文利用半空间并矢格林函数求出了单个散射体的散射场,然后运用Monte Carlo方法模拟生成地面植被层,得到了在半空间下植被层的电磁散射特性,计算出了单、双站雷达散射截面,并与自由空间下的散射场做了相互对比.结果表明,在半空间格林函数下得到的散射场更为适用于描述地面植被的电磁散射特性.