Use of SARAL/AltiKa Observations for Modeling River Flow

In the absence of many gauging stations in the major and mighty river systems, there is a need for satellite-based observations to estimate temporal variations in the river water storage and associated water management. In this study, SARAL/AltiKa application for setting up hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) and river flow simulations over Tapi River India has been discussed. Waveform data of 40 Hz from Ka band altimeter has been used for water levels retrieval in the Tapi river. SARAL/AltiKa retrieved water levels were converted to discharge in the upstream location (track-926) using the rating curve available for the nearby gauging site and using linear spatial interpolation technique. Steady state simulations were done for various flow conditions in the upstream. Validation of river flow model was done in the downstream location (track-367) by comparing simulated and altimeter retrieved water levels (RMSE 0.67 m). Validated model was used to develop rating curve between water levels and simulated discharge for the downstream location which enables to monitor discharge variations from satellite platform in the absence of in situ observations. It has been demonstrated that SARAL/AltiKa data has potential for river flow monitoring and modeling which will feed for flood disaster forecasting, management and planning.     

降雨径流与洪水淹没模型耦合的应用研究

洪水研究包括径流与淹没两种模式。为了探究流域降雨产汇流与淹没情况、提高洪水预报精度,本研究在传统流域水文模型的基础上耦合二维水动力学模型,建立水文-水动力耦合模型。以我国吉林温德河流域为研究实例,模拟了2017年“7·13”洪水在下游口前镇所处子流域洪水淹没过程。首先对基础数据进行预处理,建立HEC-HMS水文模型并进行参数优化后,最终获得流量过程水文结果作为水动力学模型边界条件,之后建立HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型对重要子流域进行淹没模拟。耦合模型计算结果显示,水文模型经多参数优化流量模拟的NSE系数为0.988,水动力计算最大淹没水深达9.3 m相对误差为-5.2%。从泛洪模拟结果来看,子流域上游部分的农田大量被淹,淹没水深范围在0.5~2.0 m,平均流速基本在1 m/s以下。下游口前镇内最大淹没水深接近1 m,水流速度0.2 m/s至1.5 m/s,与实际的淹没情况相吻合。研究表明,所建水文水动力耦合模型模拟计算的结果准确率较高,对具有复杂水文、水力条件的流域的洪水预报具有重要的指导意义。     

汉江上游晏家棚段全新世古洪水研究

通过对汉江上游详尽的野外考察,在湖北郧县晏家棚河段全新世黄土—古土壤地层中发现3层典型古洪水滞流沉积物。在沉积学的基础上,使用OSL技术断代,确定3期特大洪水事件分别在1 000~900 a BP,1 800~1 600 a BP和3 200~2 800 a BP期间发生。采用"古洪水SWD尖灭点高程法"确定这3期古洪水事件的洪峰水位介于176.20~176.73 m。运用Arc GIS耦合HEC-RAS水力模型,推求这3期古洪水事件的洪峰流量介于53 770~55 950 m3/s,并从多种角度验证了该模型计算结果的科学性和合理性。将此结果与实测洪水和历史洪水资料接续,构成万年尺度洪水水文数据序列,得到汉江上游晏家棚河段万年一遇和千年一遇洪水的流量分别为59 100和45 200m3/s。采用HEC-RAS模型对研究河段进行古洪水模拟,方法科学,结果可靠。将该河段洪水水文数据序列有效地延长到万年尺度,极大地提高了设计洪水的可靠性。     

黄河马头关段全新世古洪水水文恢复及气候背景研究

通过野外观察研究,在黄河中游晋陕峡谷永和县佛堂村（FTC）支沟口的回水湾内发现了全新世古洪水滞流沉积物。结合沉积学分析,判定它们是典型的全新世古洪水悬移质泥砂颗粒在高水位滞流环境中的沉积物。利用“古洪水SWD厚度含沙量法”恢复古洪水洪峰水位,借助HEC-RAS模型估算出4次古洪水事件洪峰流量在25 200～51 500 m³·s^-1之间。OSL测年结果显示,FTC地点的古洪水发生在1 900～1 700 a BP、3 400～3 000 a BP。全新世气候变化研究表明,这两个时期气候恶化,旱涝灾害多有发生。FTC地点的两期四次洪水反映了这两个时期的气候异常变化成果,表明了黄河中游水文系统对气候变化作出的响应,也印证了季风区河流对气候突变的响应规律,为黄河中下游地区防洪减灾和水资源开发提供了基础数据。     

Multi-source data fusion and modeling to assess and communicate complex flood dynamics to support decision-making for downstream areas of dams: The 2011 hurricane irene and schoharie creek floods,NY

In light of climate and land use change, stakeholders around the world are interested in assessing historic and likely future flood dynamics and flood extents for decision-making in watersheds with dams as well as limited availability of stream gages and costly technical resources. This research evaluates an assessment and communication approach of combining GIS, hydraulic modeling based on latest remote sensing and topographic imagery by comparing the results to an actual flood event and available stream gages. On August 28th 2011, floods caused by Hurricane Irene swept through a large rural area in New York State, leaving thousands of people homeless, devastating towns and cities. Damage was widespread though the estimated and actual floods inundation and associated return period were still unclear since the flooding was artificially increased by flood water release due to fear of a dam break. This research uses the stream section right below the dam between two stream gages North Blenheim and Breakabeen along Schoharie Creek as a case study site to validate the approach. The data fusion approach uses a GIS, commonly available data sources, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS as well as airborne LiDAR data that were collected two days after the flood event (Aug 30, 2011). The aerial imagery of the airborne survey depicts a low flow event as well as the evidence of the record flood such as debris and other signs of damage to validate the hydrologic simulation results with the available stream gauges. Model results were also compared to the official Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood scenarios to determine the actual flood return period of the event. The dynamic of the flood levels was then used to visualize the flood and the actual loss of the Old Blenheim Bridge using Google Sketchup. Integration of multi-source data, cross-validation and visualization provides new ways to utilize pre- and post-event remote sensing imagery and hydrologic models to better understand and communicate the complex spatial-temporal dynamics, return periods and potential/actual consequences to decision-makers and the local population.     

GIS-based approach for flood analysis: case study of Keçidere flash flood event (Turkey)

The purpose of this study is to explain the formation mechanism of the floods which occurred in the Keçidere basin in 2009. In this study, discharge data in between 1981 and 2009, digital elevation model (DEM), satellite images and field works were used as a main data sources. LPT3 was applied to 29-year maximum flow data to produce different flood return periods such as 2, 5, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000-year flood. The DEM was created using 1:25,000 topographic contours with Topo to Raster interpolation techniques in geographical information systems (GIS). Land use and some geometric data were digitized using high resolution satellite images for hydraulic modelling purposes. Simulation of the 2009 flash flood event and different return periods flow data was done using one-dimensional hydraulic modelling with HEC-RAS. In the last phase, results obtained from the simulations and field works were compared based on fits statistics and mean absolute error in terms of extent and depth. An analysis of water extent and depth features observed during the highest flow ever measured in the basin revealed that the result overlapped with 500-year inundation extent. Overall, the results of the research indicate that GIS is an effective environment for floodplain mapping and analysis.     

基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建

青藏高原东南缘岷江上游地区地质环境条件十分复杂,滑坡堵江灾害及堰塞湖溃决事件频发,重建其灾害演化过程对于地区性防灾减灾和风险控制具有重要指导意义。以川西岷江上游叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖为研究对象,首先利用高精度DEM和ArcGIS软件重建了叠溪古堰塞湖的原始规模,其原始最大湖水面积为1.1×10⁷ m²,相应的湖容量为2.9×10⁹ m³;然后采用经验公式法和HEC-RAS一维水力学模型重建叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水的水力学特征。计算结果表明,HEC-RAS模拟的最大溃决洪水洪峰流量为73 060 m³/s,与经验公式法计算结果(74 500~76 800 m³/s,平均值76 000 m³/s)非常接近,误差小于5%。对应的最大洪水深度和流速分别为70.1 m和16.78 m/s,模拟河段的洪水淹没范围约为6.08 km²。综合误差分析推测的溃决洪峰流量误差范围为69 000~81 000 m³/s。叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水在世界范围内是十分罕见的,其最直接的影响是在下游数公里范围的河谷内形成大量带状或台阶状的溃坝堆积体和巨砾石堆积“阶地”,且这种影响仍延续至今,这与前人关于高能洪水水文特征和沉积特征的研究认识高度一致,证明本研究成果是非常可靠的。此外,本研究还表明,HEC-RAS一维水力模型可用于高山峡谷地区古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建研究,可为青藏高原东南缘岷江上游古环境重建和地貌演化提供参考。     

Flood assessment and early warning of the reoccurrence of river blockage at the Baige landslide

On 10th Oct.and 3rd Nov.2018,two successive landslides occurred in the Jinsha River catchment at Baige Village,Tibet Autonomous Region,China.The landslides blocked the major river and formed the barrier lake,which finally caused the huge flood disaster loss.The hillslope at Baige landslide site has been still deforming after the 2018 slidings,which is likely to fail and block the Jinsha River again in the future.Therefore the investigation of 2018 flood disaster at the Baige landslide is of a great significance to provide a classic case for flood assessment and early warning for the future disaster.The detailed survey revealed that the outstanding inundations induced bank collapse disasters upstream the Baige landslide dams,and the field investigations and hydrological simulation suggested that the downstream of the Baige landslide were seriously flooded due to the two periods of the outburst floods.On these bases,the early warning process of potential outburst floods at the Baige landslide was advised,which contains four stages:Outburst Flood Simulating Stage,Outburst Flood Fore-casting Stage,Emergency Plan and Emergency Evacuation Stage.The study offers a con-ceptual model for the mitigation of landslides and flood disasters in the high-relief mountain-ous region in Tibet.     

Bayesian estimation of inflow hydrographs in ungauged sites of multiple reach systems

A Bayesian Geostatistical Approach to evaluate unknown upstream flow hydrographs in multiple reach systems is implemented. The methodology was, firstly, tested through three synthetic examples of river confluences, that differ in the available data, boundary conditions and number of the estimated inflow time series. Input discharge hydrographs were routed downstream by means of the widely known HEC-RAS river analysis system to obtain the downstream stage hydrographs used as known observations for the reverse procedure. In almost all cases, the observed water levels were corrupted with random errors to highlight the reliability of the methodology in preventing instabilities and overfitting. Then the procedure was applied to the real case study of the Parma–Baganza river confluence located at the city of Parma (Italy) to assess the tributary Baganza River inflow hydrograph (supposed completely ungauged) using water level data collected downstream on the main reach. The results show that the methodology properly reproduces the unknown inflows even in presence of errors affecting the downstream water levels. The practical applicability of the proposed approach is also demonstrated in complex river systems.     

A power-law multivariable regression equation for salt intrusion length in the Bouregreg estuary,Morocco

Abstract

Prediction of salt intrusion length in estuaries is a challenge for managers as well as scientists in this field. Several numerical and empirical models have been developed for the prediction of salt intrusion length in recent decades. However, all these models require large data set on estuary geometry, tide, stratification turbulence which demands experimental cost and time, and which is not always available as in our case. Thus, for reducing the complexity of analysis, a new simple equation was derived to predict the salinity intrusion length using nonlinear multivariable regression in the Bouregreg estuary, Morocco. The equation relates salt intrusion length with freshwater discharge and tidal range using a power law. The salt intrusion length predicted by the developed equation was in good agreement (R² = 0.72) with that obtained using a numerical salinity transport model (HEC-RAS software “Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System”). This simple formula is completely transparent and practical for Bouregreg estuary, allowing direct assessment of the parameters on the salt intrusion. Therefore, the proposed model can either be used to predict the salt intrusion for a given freshwater discharge and tidal range, or can used as a tool to design the minimum daily discharge to regulate the salt intrusion into the estuary, thereby providing assistance for management plans.