An analysis of yield variability from three harvesting strategies in the South African anchovy fishery,under conditions of randomly fluctuating recruitment success

An age-structured population model was used to examine the variability of yield created by randomly fluctuating recruitment success in the South African anchovy Engraulis capensis stock. Three different harvesting strategies were examined: (1) constant age-specific pattern of fishing mortality, (2) constant quota with effort limitation and (3) annual quota adjustments by means of an F _msy procedure. Variable recruitment was generated by a stochastic stock-recruit relationship, and mean yields, mean spawner biomasses and probability distributions of yield were calculated at each exploitation level after 150 projections from the population structure of anchovy in 1981. Under conditions of constant fishing mortality, the variability of yield increased continuously as the exploitation rate was increased. The maximum average yield (MAY) is the stochastic equivalent of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of deterministic models, but an attempt to sustain this MAY by a constant quota resulted in a very high risk of stock collapse. An Fmsy policy based on pre-season adult biomass resulted in more variable yields than were obtained at the equivalent constant fishing mortality at age. Stability of yield therefore demanded the acceptance of lower average yields than could be attained in the long term by quota adjustment. It was considered that the South African purse-seine industry could not cope with the wide fluctuations of yield necessary to attain MAY. Specific management policies sufficiently robust to withstand both fluctuating recruitment success and the uncertainties in the parameters of working population models would be required.     

The effect of water transport on nitrogen flow through a kelp-bed community

A simulation model is used to investigate possible ecological effects of up- and downwelling on nitrogen flows through a kelp-bed food web off the Cape Peninsula, South Africa. The model depicts the flow of nitrogen, which is often limiting in marine ecosystems, from kelps, other macrophytes and phytoplankton, through filter-feeders to carnivores, with a feedback loop via faeces and bacteria to detritus and filter-feeders. When modelled as a closed system, bacteria associated with detritus and animal faeces form a large component of the particulate nitrogen available to filter-feeders, and the faeces feedback loop dominates nitrogen flow. When measured rates of water transport are incorporated into the model, bacteria have little opportunity to accumulate before being transported out of the system. Animal faeces and kelp detritus are the dominant filter-feeder food components under upwelling conditions, whereas phytoplankton is the major contributor to particulate organic nitrogen under downwelling conditions. When realistic pulses of upwelling/downwelling derived from wind indices are used as model input, filter-feeders are shown to decline during the summer upwelling season when much potential food is advected out of the system, and they increase during the winter when downwelling conditions are more prevalent, bringing in nitrogen-rich phytoplankton from the blooms developing offshore.     

White shark and other chondrichthyan interactions with the beach-seine (treknet) fishery in False Bay,South Africa

Public perception has been that an apparent increase in the nearshore occurrence of white sharks Carcharodon carcharias in False Bay, on the south coast of South Africa, can at least be partly attributed to beach-seine (treknet) operations attracting sharks into this coastal area. To assess the merit of these concerns, all available beach-seine catch-and-effort data from the False Bay fishery over a 32-year period were analysed. A total of 27 cartilaginous species from 15 families was recorded in around 11 400 hauls from 1974 to 2006. Most (98%) of these comprised small benthic invertebrate feeders such as smooth houndshark Mustelus mustelus and lesser guitarfish Rhinobatos annulatus. Large sharks such as C. carcharias and ragged-tooth shark Carcharias taurus were rare, occurring in <0.2% of hauls. The only medium to large sharks that occurred frequently (15% of hauls) in any appreciable numbers (0.3 per haul) were bronze whalers Carcharhinus brachyurus. The relatively high numbers of C. brachyurus compared with C. carcharias, their overlapping size distributions and the difficulty of identifying sharks from a distance, suggests that many of the sharks observed following beach-seine nets are the bronze whalers. Overall, the frequency of occurrence of C. carcharias in the nets is much lower than would be predicted from the high number of observations in the nearshore region. Furthermore, beach-seine fishing rights in False Bay have been reduced from around 170 in the 1970s to five at present. There has been no corresponding decrease in shark incidents. On the contrary, shark incidents have increased from two in the 1970s to six during the period 2000–2005. Overall, there appears to be no strong link between beach-seine activity and human incidents with white sharks in False Bay.     

Comparison of,and the effects of altered freshwater inflow on,fish assemblages of two contrasting South African estuaries: the cool-temperate Olifants and the warm-temperate Breede

This study compares the fish assemblages of the permanently open cool-temperate Olifants and warm-temperate Breede estuaries on the west and south coasts of South Africa respectively, and their responses to altered freshwater flows. Both estuaries have experienced a >35% reduction in mean annual runoff (MAR) from a historical reference condition to the present day with a >60% reduction possible under future flow scenarios. With the exception of species that have both marine and estuarine breeding populations, the Olifants Estuary fish assemblage has experienced an overall 20% decrease in abundance from reference (pristine state) to the present day and will gradually decline to 55% of reference with a predicted future 60% reduction in MAR. Consequently, future reductions in flow are likely to result in the Olifants Estuary progressing towards a low biomass, low diversity, marine-dominated system. In contrast, reduced freshwater flows in the Breede Estuary are likely to experience an overall reduction in the abundance of species that breed only in estuaries, and in freshwater and catadromous species. Collectively, entirely estuarine-dependent fish will increase in abundance, but considered individually some important exploited species such as Argyrosomus japonicus and Pomadasys commersonnii will collapse to 50% of historical numbers once there has been a 64% reduction in MAR. Overall, fish abundance in the estuary has increased by 6% from reference to the present day and is likely to increase to 115% of reference with future reductions in flow. Some species with a preference for fresh and brackish water will be all but lost from the system, but overall diversity is likely to increase with the range expansion of warm-temperate and subtropical marine species westward. In all, the fish assemblage of the Breede Estuary will experience a gradual change from a relatively high-diversity, low-abundance, freshwater rich system under historical flow conditions to a high diversity, high-abundance, marine-dominated system with future reductions in flow.     

Population structure and growth of polydorid polychaetes that infest cultured abalone Haliotis midae

Polydorid polychaetes can infest cultured abalone thereby reducing productivity. In order to effectively control these pests, their reproductive biology must be understood. The population dynamics and reproduction of polydorids infesting abalone Haliotis midae from two farms in South Africa is described using a length-based, age-structured model. Shells were infested mainly by introduced Boccardia proboscidea. Polydora hoplura and Dipolydora capensis were also present but in numbers too few to identify factors influencing infestation. At both farms, B. proboscidea lived for a minimum of 12 months. Growth rate, size at maturity, maximum size, infestation intensity, recruitment, percentage of the population brooding and mortality appear to be affected by abalone feeding regime and water temperature, and these factors need to be considered in controlling infestation. Brooders and recruits were present throughout the year, but increased significantly during mid- to late winter/early spring when water temperature and day length increased. Treatment measures should therefore be implemented throughout the year but with increased effort when water temperature increases.     

Symbolization of Map Projection Distortion: A Review

One of the most fundamental steps in map creation is the transformation of information from the surface of a globe onto a flat map. Mapmakers have developed and used hundreds of different map projections over the past 2,000 years, yet there is no perfect choice because every map projection uniquely alters some aspect of space during the transformation process. Detailed information about the type, amount, and distribution of distortion is essential for choosing the best projection for a particular map or data set. The distortion inherent in projections can be measured and symbolized much like any other map variable. Methods for symbolizing map projection distortion are reviewed, with each method described and illustrated in graphical form. The symbolization methods are collected under ten separate headings organized from simple to more complex in terms of interpretation. Most of these methods are highly effective at communicating distortion, yet they are rarely used beyond textbooks and technical documentation. Map projections and the distortions they carry need to be better understood by spatial data developers, distributors, and users. Map distortion should be carried along with map data as confidence layers, and the easily accessible distortion displays should be available to help in the selection of map projections. There is a suitably wide array of symbolization methods to match any need from basic education to research.     

Cognitive and Usability Issues in Geovisualization

We provide a research agenda for the International Cartographic Association's Commission on Visualization and Virtual Environment Working Group on Cognitive and Usability Issues in Geovisualization. Developments in hardware and software have led to (and will continue to stimulate) numerous novel methods for visualizing geospatial data. It is our belief that these novel methods will be of little use if they are not developed within a theoretical cognitive framework and iteratively tested using usability engineering principles. We argue that cognitive and usability issues should be considered in the context of six major research themes: 1) geospatial virtual environments (GeoVEs); 2) dynamic representations (including animated and interactive maps); 3) metaphors and schemata in user interface design; 4) individual and group differences; 5) collaborative geovisualization; and 6) evaluating the effectiveness of geovisualization methods. A key point underlying our use of theoretical cognitive principles is that traditional cognitive theory for static two-dimensional maps may not be applicable to interactive three-dimensional immersive GeoVEs and dynamic representations—thus new cognitive theory may need to be developed. Usability engineering extends beyond the traditional cartographic practice of "user testing" by evaluating software effectiveness throughout a lifecycle (including design, development, and deployment). Applying usability engineering to geovisualization, however, may be problematic because of the novelty of geovisualization and the associated difficulty of defining the nature of users and their tasks. Tackling the research themes is likely to require an interdisciplinary effort involving geographic information scientists, cognitive scientists, usability engineers, computer scientists, and others.     

Multivariate Analysis and Geovisualization with an Integrated Geographic Knowledge Discovery Approach

The discovery, interpretation, and presentation of multivariate spatial patterns are important for scientific understanding of complex geographic problems. This research integrates computational, visual, and cartographic methods together to detect and visualize multivariate spatial patterns. The integrated approach is able to: (1) perform multivariate analysis, dimensional reduction, and data reduction (summarizing a large number of input data items in a moderate number of clusters) with the Self-Organizing Map (SOM); (2) encode the SOM result with a systematically designed color scheme; (3) visualize the multivariate patterns with a modified Parallel Coordinate Plot (PCP) display and a geographic map (GeoMap); and (4) support human interactions to explore and examine patterns. The research shows that such "mixed initiative" methods (computational and visual) can mitigate each other's weakness and collaboratively discover complex patterns in large geographic datasets, in an effective and efficient way.     

The Scope and Conceptual Content of Analytical Cartography

Over the last three decades analytical cartography has grown from Tobler's concept of "solving cartographic problems" into a broader and deeper scientific specialization that includes the development and expansion of analytical/mathematical spatial theory and model building. In many instances Tobler himself has led the way to these new insights and developments. Fundamental concepts begin with Tobler's cartographic transformations; Nyerges' deep and surface structure and data levels; and Moellering's real and virtual maps; the sampling theorem; and concepts of spatial primitives and objects. This list can be expanded to include additional analytical concepts such as spatial frequencies, spatial surface neighborhood operators, information theory, fractals, Fourier theory, topological network theory, and analytical visualization, to name a few. This base of analytical theory can be employed to analyze and/or develop such things as spatial surfaces, terrain analysis, spatial data schemas, spatial data structures, spatial query languages, spatial overlay and partitioning, shape analysis, surface generalization, cartographic generalization, and analytical visualization. More analytical uses of theory, strategies of analysis, and implementations are being developed and continue to multiply as the field continues to grow and mature. A primary goal is to expand the mathematical/analytical theory of spatial data analysis, and theory building and analytical visualization as analytical cartography takes its place in the geographic information sciences. The research future for this area appears very bright indeed.     

On the Uncertainty of Local Shape of Lines and Surfaces

Modeling line or surface phenomena digitally involves two tasks: discretization of the phenomenon, which yields a finite set of data, and subsequent interpolation, which reconstructs the continuum. Many mathematical techniques exist for the latter task, and most methods require a number of parameters to be specified. The shape of digital line or surface models between the data points (that is, the local shape) and the information derived from these models both depend on the selected method and, possibly, on the specification of parameters. The reconstruction of the continuum thus introduces uncertainty. This paper examines the sources and effects of this type of uncertainty. For this purpose, the modeling of lines and surfaces is separated into an abstraction, an implementation, and measurement. The individual factors affecting uncertainty of local shape in each step are identified and discussed. The paper concludes that local shape uncertainty, unlike positional uncertainty of given data, cannot be numerically assessed. Instead, measures of plausibility have to be used to denote the quality of digital models of lines and surfaces. Finally, the concept and potential problems of future empirical investigations are discussed.