基于2030年可持续发展目标的吉林省城镇化可持续发展评价

结合联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDGs）构建城镇化可持续发展评价指标体系,从省内、外两个角度研究吉林省城镇化可持续发展状况。结果表明：吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平波动上升,发展趋势良好,大致可分为3个阶段;研究期内各子系统可持续发展水平均呈上升趋势,其中社会子系统上升幅度最大,经济子系统上升幅度最小。城镇化可持续发展水平空间格局呈“核心-边缘”结构,即长春市水平高、其它地区水平低;经济、社会、资源和环境子系统可持续发展水平总体上表现为“中东部高,西部低”。研究期内吉林省城镇化可持续发展水平低于黑龙江省,2015年后高于辽宁省;相较辽黑两省,吉林省社会子系统可持续发展水平较低。     

Volunteered geographic information research in the first decade: a narrative review of selected journal articles in GIScience

ABSTRACT

More than 10 years have passed since the coining of the term volunteered geographic information (VGI) in 2007. This article presents the results of a review of the literature concerning VGI. A total of 346 articles published in 24 international refereed journals in GIScience between 2007 and 2017 have been reviewed. The review has uncovered varying levels of popularity of VGI research over space and time, and varying interests in various sources of VGI (e.g. OpenStreetMap) and VGI-related terms (e.g. user-generated content) that point to the multi-perspective nature of VGI. Content-wise, using latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), this study has extracted 50 specific research topics pertinent to VGI. The 50 topics have been subsequently clustered into 13 intermediate topics and three overarching themes to allow a hierarchical topic review. The overarching VGI research themes include (1) VGI contributions and contributors, (2) main fields applying VGI, and (3) conceptions and envisions. The review of the articles under the three themes has revealed the progress and the points that demand attention regarding the individual topics. This article also discusses the areas that the existing research has not yet adequately explored and proposes an agenda for potential future research endeavors.     

New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015–2030

The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.     

A Conceptual Framework for Enhancing the Utility of Rainfall Hazard Forecasts for Agriculture in Marginal Environments

Semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas (especially in the tropics) are characterized by high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. Agriculture, which employs the bulk of the rapidly increasing populations, is largely rain-fed, low-input based and highly resource dependent. Recent spates of drought have, therefore, exacerbated the now-too-familiar specter of famine and starvation in these areas with glaring examples being the recurring episodes in sub-Saharan Africa since the great Sahel drought of 1969–1973. A great need for accurate and timely hazard forecast products in aid of agriculture thus exists.Several schemes are currently employed by various agencies around the globe in this direction. There does remain, however, a gap between product provision and user expectations. This paper examines this gap suggesting a five-point framework within which it can be addressed as an action agenda for the climate science community. The paper posits that changes are possible to existing methodologies (related to three of these points), which, within the context of current science, can greatly enhance the utility of forecast products for agriculture in marginal areas. The remaining two points have, however, been identified as requiring additional applied research and necessary pointers for addressing these issues are provided. First is the need for appropriate impact-related indicators for intra-seasonal and interannual rainfall variability that are easy to compute, amenable to forecasting and follow closely the experiences of farmers in marginal areas. The second is a consideration of appropriate forecast information formatting and communication medium that guarantee effective feedback between forecast producers and users. Specific examples of the status quo and of work currently underway are cited from southern Africa – a region currently attracting international attention as a result of recent droughts and the threat of famine.     

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

ABSTRACT

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.     

基于能源需求理论的全球CO2排放趋势分析

能源消费是影响CO2排放的最主要因素, 本文以能源消费基本规律为基础, 按照人均累积CO2排放、人均CO2排放以及CO2排放强度三个重要指标, 系统分析了英国、美国、法国、日本、中国等典型国家CO2排放的历史轨迹, 全面预测了未来20年全球及中国CO2排放量。结果表明: 2030年中国CO2排放总量将为124亿吨, 人均排放约为8.5吨, CO2排放强度为356吨/百万美元, 与处于相同发展程度的美国(1994年)相比, 人均排放指标和排放强度指标均不到其一半水平。2020年和2030年, 中国的CO2排放强度与2007年比将分别降低46%和60%, 将为减缓温室气体排放做出突出贡献。     

Timing properties of the X-ray pulsar EXO 2030+375 during an X-ray outburst

We present Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ) observations of the Be/X-ray transient EXO 2030+375 during an outburst after a period of quiescence between 1993 August and 1996 April. When active, EXO 2030+375 is normally detected at each periastron passage of the neutron star. Our observations correspond to the third periastron passage after the source 'turned on' again. All outbursts after the quiescent period, including the one reported here, have been occurring at a much earlier binary phase than in the past. We discuss the possible mechanisms that may explain this shift in the onset of the outburst. Pulsations in the X-ray radiation are detected throughout the entire run. The neutron star spun up during the outburst at a rate of −1.16×10⁻⁸ s s⁻¹, but no variations in the shape of the pulse profile as a function of intensity were seen. A correlation between the hardness ratio and the intensity is observed at low energies (6–12/2–6 keV). By comparing the magnetospheric and corotation radii we argue that the neutron star spins at a rate close to the equilibrium period. Finally, we perform pulse-phase spectroscopy and comment on changes seen as a function of spin phase.     

Transfer patterns in Phase I of the EU Emissions Trading System: a first reality check based on cluster analysis

In 2005, the world's largest Emissions Trading System (ETS) was introduced in the EU. Economic theory assumes high efficiency of such market-based instruments since companies have the flexibility to trade allowances. However, to date there is a lack of understanding on how companies have participated in the allowance markets. This article uses data on transfers of allowances between 2005 and the end of 2007, published by the EU in the Community Independent Transaction Log (CITL) after a five-year delay. We use cluster analysis to detect patterns in the data and differentiate transfer behaviour. We find that the vast majority of participants (7212 accounts) are rather passive in terms of transfers. Of these, more than half are hardly participating in the market at all, whereas one-third are accounts managed by another account belonging to the parent company. Opposed to that, 143 accounts show more active, but relatively diverse transfer behaviour. We also identify differences in sectoral representations, account types, and primary allocation across the seven clusters. While the passive accounts mostly belong to installations regulated under the EU ETS, the most active accounts are classified as ‘non-regulated account type'.     

Wellbeing, health and geography: A critical review and research agenda

Abstract:  This paper explores different conceptual and policy spaces of wellbeing. The increasing use of wellbeing in contemporary health debates affords geographers of health new arena in which to explore the processes that promote, remedy or regenerate health and ill-health. The paper first critically reviews the theoretical approaches and challenges for operationalizing the concept of wellbeing in both research and policy. We then present a framework of the spaces of wellbeing to provoke discussion and research amongst geographers of health. The paper concludes with proposals for future research orientations.