Prediction by regression and intrarange data scatter in surface-process studies

Modeling is a major component of contemporary earth science, and regression analysis occupies a central position in the parameterization, calibration, and validation of geomorphic and hydrologic models. Although this methodology can be used in many ways, we are primarily concerned with the prediction of values for one variable from another variable. Examination of the literature reveals considerable inconsistency in the presentation of the results of regression analysis and the occurrence of patterns in the scatter of data points about the regression line. Both circumstances confound utilization and evaluation of the models. Statisticians are well aware of various problems associated with the use of regression analysis and offer improved practices; often, however, their guidelines are not followed. After a review of the aforementioned circumstances and until standard criteria for model evaluation become established, we recommend, as a minimum, inclusion of scatter diagrams, the standard error of the estimate, and sample size in reporting the results of regression analyses for most surface-process studies.     

Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment

Studies from a variety of disciplines documentrecentchange in the northern high-latitude environment.Prompted by predictions of an amplified response oftheArctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, we present asynthesis of these observations. Pronounced winter andspring warming over northern continents since about 1970ispartly compensated by cooling over the northern NorthAtlantic. Warming is also evident over the centralArcticOcean. There is a downward tendency in sea ice extent,attended by warming and increased areal extent of theArctic Ocean's Atlantic layer. Negative snow coveranomalies have dominated over both continents sincethelate 1980s and terrestrial precipitation has increasedsince 1900. Small Arctic glaciers have exhibitedgenerally negative mass balances. While permafrost haswarmed in Alaska and Russia, it has cooled in easternCanada. There is evidence of increased plant growth,attended by greater shrub abundance and northwardmigration of the tree line. Evidence also suggeststhatthe tundra has changed from a net sink to a net sourceofatmospheric carbon dioxide.Taken together, these results paint a reasonablycoherent picture of change, but their interpretationassignals of enhanced greenhouse warming is open todebate.Many of the environmental records are either short,areof uncertain quality, or provide limited spatialcoverage. The recent high-latitude warming is also nolarger than the interdecadal temperature range duringthis century. Nevertheless, the general patterns ofchange broadly agree with model predictions. Roughlyhalfof the pronounced recent rise in Northern Hemispherewinter temperatures reflects shifts in atmosphericcirculation. However, such changes are notinconsistentwith anthropogenic forcing and include generallypositive phases of the North Atlantic and ArcticOscillations and extratropical responses to theEl-NiñoSouthern Oscillation. An anthropogenic effect is alsosuggested from interpretation of the paleoclimaterecord,which indicates that the 20th century Arctic is thewarmest of the past 400 years.     

The interactions between vegetation and erosion: new directions for research at the interface of ecology and geomorphology

Vegetation and processes of erosion and deposition are interactive. An objective of this paper is to review selected studies that emphasize the interdependencies. The reviews suggest new directions for research uniting ecology and geomorphology – the sub‐discipline of biogeomorphology. The research, which recently has become vigorous, includes the sources, movement, and fates of fluvial loads of sediment, organic carbon, nutrients, contaminants, and woody debris to low‐energy storage sites; the function of biota in causing soil evolution, stability, and sequestration of carbon; the development of new methods to characterize watersheds based on edaphic conditions; and the refinement of current empirical and conceptual models and dendrochronological techniques to measure landscape change. These well acknowledged topics and others less well anticipated ensure that biogeomorphology will remain vibrant. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the publish domain in the USA.     

Geomorphic considerations for erosion prediction

 Current soil-erosion prediction technology addresses processes of rainsplash, overland-flow sediment transport, and rill erosion in small watersheds. The effects of factors determining sediment yield from larger-scale drainage basins, in which sediment movement is controlled by the combined small-scale processes and a complex set of channel and other basin-scale sediment-delivery processes, such as soil creep, bioturbation, and accelerated erosion due to denudation of vegetation, have been poorly evaluated. General suggestions are provided for the development of erosion-prediction technology at the geomorphic or drainage-basin scale based on the separation of sediment-yield data for channel and geomorphic processes from those of field-scale soil loss. An emerging technology must consider: (1) the effects on sediment yield of climate, geology and soils, topography, biotic interactions with other soil processes, and land-use practices; (2) all processes of sediment delivery to a channel system; and (3) the general tendency in most drainage basins for progressively greater sediment storage in the downstream direction. Received: 8 November 1995 · Accepted: 20 November 1995     

Permafrost Degradation and Ecological Changes Associated with a WarmingClimate in Central Alaska

Studies from 1994–1998 on the TananaFlats in central Alaska reveal that permafrostdegradation is widespread and rapid, causing largeshifts in ecosystems from birch forests to fens andbogs. Fine-grained soils under the birch forest areice-rich and thaw settlement typically is 1–2.5 mafter the permafrost thaws. The collapsed areas arerapidly colonized by aquatic herbaceous plants,leading to the development of a thick, floatingorganic mat. Based on field sampling of soils,permafrost and vegetation, and the construction of aGIS database, we estimate that 17% of the study area(263,964 ha) is unfrozen with no previous permafrost,48% has stable permafrost, 31% is partiallydegraded, and 4% has totally degraded. For thatportion that currently has, or recently had,permafrost (83% of area), 42% has been affected bythermokarst development. Based on airphoto analysis,birch forests have decreased 35% and fens haveincreased 29% from 1949 to 1995. Overall, the areawith totally degraded permafrost (collapse-scar fensand bogs) has increased from 39 to 47% in 46 y. Based on rates of change from airphoto analysis andradiocarbon dating, we estimate 83% of thedegradation occurred before 1949. Evidence indicatesthis permafrost degradation began in the mid-1700s andis associated with periods of relatively warm climateduring the mid-late 1700s and 1900s. If currentconditions persist, the remaining lowland birchforests will be eliminated by the end of the nextcentury.     

Geoindicators for river and river-valley monitoring in the humid tropics

Geoindicators for rivers and river valleys in the humid tropics are suggested to indicate environmental change during periods of up to a century. Geoindicators suggested for upland areas of supply are rainfall-runoff relations, rates of soil movement and slope failure, and analyses of drainage density. Data applicable to sediment storage in lowlands are rates of sediment deposition as shown by monuments, short-lived radioisotopes, and pollen. Discharges of water, sediment, and dissolved solids are basic geoindicators for large streams, especially when analyses include flood frequency, stage-discharge relations, flow duration, sediment-rating curves, and comparisons of dissolved loads to sediment loads. The utility of geoindicators in the humid tropics may be greatest if observation sites are selected with a network design to permit comparisons of sites with similar conditions of climate and drainage-basin characteristics.     

Einsatz von Pflanzenkläranlagen zur Behandlung von schadstoffbelastetem Oberflächenabfluß städtischer Straßen

A combination of retention pond and reed bed was tested for its effectiveness in reducing non-point source runoff pollution from an urban area. This paper presents data on the development of reed plants (Phragmites australis Cav. Trin.), on the effectiveness of runoff purification and on the accumulation of contaminants in the pond sediment and the reed bed for the years 1993–1995. P. australis was well established and grew according to normal development. The measured length and biomass values of P. australis were larger on sand than on gravel and coarse materials. Toxic levels of heavy metals in the plants were not reached. Harvested plants can be composted. The purification system is effective within the following ranges: The rate of retention of suspended solids and heavy metals varies between 16% and 91%. For chemical oxygen demand the average values is 25%. Poor retention rates usually occur along with very low input concentrations. Generally retention within the reed bed is higher than in the pond. Between 1993 and 1995 the concentration of contaminants within the organic layer of the reed bed increased by 50% for lead and by 90% for poly aromatic hydrocarbons. Until 1994 the concentrations of mineral oil hydrocarbons also increased by 60%. Between 1994 and 1995 however the concentration of mineral oil hydrocarbons in the reed bed decreased rapidly by more than 50%: Mineral oil hydrocarbons underlie biological degradation within the reed bed. In the pond sediment a significant accumulation of heavy metals, poly aromatic hydrocarbons and mineral oil hydrocarbons has also been found. The concentrations of these contaminants are still far from inhibiting the function of the system.     

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling.     

Development of partial rock veneers by root throw in a subalpine setting

Rock veneers stabilize hillslope surfaces, occur especially in areas of immature soil, and form through a variety of process sets that includes root throw. Near Westcliffe, Colorado, USA, data were collected from a 20 × 500 m transect on the east slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Ages of pit/mound complexes with rock fragments exposed at the surface by root throw ranged from recent (freshly toppled tree) to unknown (complete tree decay). Calculations based on dimensions of the pit/mound complexes, estimated time of tree toppling, sizes of exposed rock fragments, and percentage rock covers at pit/mound complexes, as well as within the transect area, indicate that recent rates of root throw have resulted in only partial rock veneering since late Pleistocene deglaciation. Weathering of rock fragments prevents development of an extensive rock veneer and causes a balance, achieved within an estimated 700 years, between the rates of rock‐fragment exposure by root throw and clast disintegration by chemical reduction. The estimated rate of rock‐fragment reduction accounts for part of the fluvial sediment yields observed for forested subalpine areas of western North America. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of vegetation and bed-level fluctuations in the process of channel narrowing

A catastrophic flood ire 1965 on Plum Creek, a perennial sandbed stream in the western Great Plains, removed most of the bottomland vegetation and transformed the single-thalweg stream into a wider, braided channel. Following eight years of further widening associated with minor high flows, a process of channel narrowing began in 1973; narrowing continues today. The history of channel narrowing was reconstructed by counting the annual rings of 129 trees and shrubs along a 5-km reach of Plum Creek near Louviers, Colorado. Sixty-three of these plants were excavated in order to determine the age and elevation of the germination point. The reconstructed record of channel change was verified from historical aerial photographs, and then compared to sediment stratigraphy and records of discharge and bed elevation from a streamflow gaging station in the study reach. Channel narrowing at Plum Creel: occurs in two ways. First, during periods of high flow, sand and fine gravel are delivered to the channel, temporarily raising the general bed-level. Subsequently, several years of uninterrupted low flows incise a narrower channel. Second, during years of low flow, vegetation becomes established on the subaerial part of the present channel bed. In both cases, surfaces stabilize as a result of vegetation growth and vertical accretion of sediment.