Limiting the soil degradational impacts of wildfire in pine and eucalyptus forests in Portugal: A comparison of alternative post-fire management practices

In newly burnt and unburnt pine and eucalyptus forest in Portugal, overland flow and soil losses were monitored to assess the impacts of the following post-fire treatments: application of different quantities of logging litter; rip-ploughing compared with minimum tillage prior to planting eucalyptus seedlings; and clearance of pine needles and vegetation. Eucalyptus logging litter reduced soil losses by up to 95 per cent. The impact of pine logging litter was equivocal, but removal of pine needles increased soil losses elevenfold. Implications for soil longevity, soil quality and land management strategy are discussed.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.     

A simple parameterization of sub-grid scale open water for climate models

The effects of small fractions ( < 30%) of open water covering a grid element are currently neglected even in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) which incorporate complex land surface parameterization schemes. Here, a method for simulating sub-grid scale open water is proposed which permits any existing land surface model to be modified to account for open water. This new parameterization is tested as an addition to an advanced land surface scheme and, as expected, is shown to produce general increases in the surface latent heat flux at the expense of the surface sensible heat flux. Small changes in temperature are associated with this change in the partitioning of available energy which is driven by an increase in the wetness of the grid element. The sensitivity of the land surface to increasing amounts of open water is dependent upon the type of vegetation represented. Dense vegetation (with a high leaf area index) is shown to complicate the apparently simple model sensitivity and indicates that more advanced methods of incorporating open water into AGCMs need to be considered and compared against the parameterization suggested here. However, the sensitivity of one land surface model to incorporating open water is large enough to warrant consideration of its incorporation into climate models.     

Riverine dominance of a nearshore marine demersal food web: evidence from stable isotope and C/N ratio analysis

The Thukela Bank, KwaZulu-Natal, supports a diverse ecosystem and South Africa’s only prawn fishery. Oceanographic studies suggest riverine input is not important for the biology of this system, whereas biological studies suggest the contrary, with prawn catches increasing with increased fluvial run-off. The aim of this study was to determine (i) the importance of riverine and marine organic matter for the Thukela Bank food web; and (ii) whether there are seasonal changes in the Thukela River stable isotope values, and, if so, whether these are reflected in the isotope values of demersal organisms. Estuarine organic matter, sediments and demersal organisms were collected from several sites across the bank in the wet and dry seasons of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Marine particulate organic matter was also collected in 2010 and analysed for δ13C and δ15N, as well as C/N ratios. There were strong seasonal changes in isotopic values of organic matter and fauna, especially faunal δ13C. There was an apparent time-lag in organisms assimilating riverine organic matter isotopic values, with the isotopic signature of demersal organisms reflecting that of riverine organic matter from the previous season, which is likely the result of tissue turnover time. In 2010, Thukela Bank sediment organic matter was of riverine origin and this maintained the demersal food web. We conclude that Thukela River organic matter is an important input to the food web of the Thukela Bank, indicating that any future damming of the catchment area could have serious consequences for this ecosystem.     

Navigating the dilemmas of climate policy in Europe: evidence from policy evaluation studies

Climate change is widely recognised as a ‘wicked’ policy problem. Agreeing and implementing governance responses is proving extremely difficult. Policy makers in many jurisdictions now emphasise their ambition to govern using the best available evidence. One obvious source of such evidence is the evaluations of the performance of existing policies. But to what extent do these evaluations provide insights into the difficult dilemmas that governors typically encounter? We address this question by reviewing the content of 262 evaluation studies of European climate policies in the light of six kinds of dilemma found in the governance literature. We are interested in what these studies say about the performance of European climate policies and in their capacity to inform evidence-based policy-making. We find that the evaluations do arrive at common findings: that climate change is framed as a problem of market and/or state failure; that voluntary measures tend to be ineffective; that market-based instruments tend to be regressive; that EU-level policies have driven climate policies in the latecomer EU Member States; and that lack of monitoring and weak enforcement are major obstacles to effective policy implementation. However, we also conclude that the evidence base these studies represent is surprisingly weak for such a high profile area. There is too little systematic climate policy evaluation work in the EU to support systematic evidence-based policy making. This reduces the scope for sound policy making in the short run and is a constraint to policy learning in the longer term.     

Classification of marine bioregions on the east coast of South Africa

Marine bioregional planning requires a meaningful classification and spatial delineation of the ocean environment using biological and physical characteristics. The relative inaccessibility of much of the ocean and the paucity of directly measured data spanning entire planning regions mean that surrogate data, such as satellite imagery, are frequently used to develop spatial classifications. However, due to a lack of appropriate biological data, these classifications often rely on abiotic variables, which act as surrogates for biodiversity. The aim of this study was to produce a fine-scale bioregional classification, using multivariate clustering, for the inshore and offshore marine environment off the east coast of South Africa, adjacent to the province of KwaZulu-Natal and out to the boundary of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 200 nautical miles offshore. We used remotely sensed data of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a and turbidity, together with interpolated bathymetry and continental-slope data, as well as additional inshore data on sediments, seabed oxygen and bottom temperature. A multivariate k-means analysis was used to produce a fine-scale marine bioregionalisation, with three bioregions subdivided into 12 biozones. The offshore classification was primarily a pelagic bioregionalisation, whereas the inshore classification (on the continental shelf) was a coupled benthopelagic bioregionalisation, owing to the availability of benthic data for this area. The resulting classification was used as a base layer for a systematic conservation plan developed for the province, and provided the methods for subsequent planning conducted for the entire South African EEZ. Validation of the classification is currently being conducted in marine research programmes that are sampling benthic biota and habitats in a sampling design stratified according to the biozones delineated in this study.     

The data-driven seismic value chain, providing a business context for the velocity issue

Effective communication between seismic specialists should be facilitated by a shared process model that can be used at different levels of abstraction. In this shared model the seismic work‐flow is presented as a value chain, showing the complex interrelationships between the broad range of specialized activities that are needed in today's practice. One of these activities is velocity estimation, providing the relationship between seismic time and geological depth. Excellence in the seismic value chain will depend on the quality of the specialized tools and skills (abilities) involved, as well as on the capability of the organization to combine these abilities in an integrated work‐flow to realize maximum value at the end of the chain.     

The population genetic structure of the waratah anemone (Actinia tenebrosa) around New Zealand

The genetic structure of populations is often shaped by the reproductive system and larval properties of the species. The waratah anemone (Actinia tenebrosa) reproduces through both asexual clones, which have very short-distance dispersal, and sexual larvae, which are believed to disperse much greater distances. The impact of this mixed strategy on the New Zealand population structure of Actinia tenebrosa was investigated using microsatellite markers. The analysis incorporated 24 sampling locations from around New Zealand and one Australian location, using four microsatellite markers, n = 420. We observed low connectivity and high genetic differentiation between all locations sampled, with a distinct pattern of isolation by distance. The most distinct grouping of locations sampled was the north-east of the North Island from Cape Reinga to East Cape, which was identified by SAMOVA and STRUCTURE analyses as being moderately diverged from the remainder of the country. A tentative correlation was observed between genetic clustering and biogeographic regionalisation, where the distribution of a number of genetic clusters matched previously defined biogeographic regions. Within each location sampled, large numbers of clones were present and a latitudinal cline was observed in the relative contribution of asexually and sexually generated recruits, with an increase in asexual recruits on the South Island's east coast.