A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.     

Sludge dumping and benthic communities

55,000 tons of sewage sludge are dumped each winter in the Hurst Deep, 22,500 tons a year in the Needles Spoil Ground. Investigation of the behaviour of the sludge after dumping and of the bottom fauna shows no obvious signs of deterioration and conditions may not have changed appreciably since surveys made 92 years ago.     

Pulsed export of carbon in the north-western Mediterranean Sea

The short term (hourly scale) variability of heterotrophic prokaryote (HP) vertical distribution and respiratory activity, was investigated in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean Sea. HP vertical distribution was determined on board by flow cytometry analysis of seawater samples collected by series of CTD casts. Cell counts and viability were determined for all samples. HP respiratory rates were determined later in the laboratory from filtered seawater samples (23 dm³) from 300–1 150-m depth. The average cell viability was 94.8%±2.2% (n=240). There was no accumulation of dead cells, due to quick decay of damaged cells. In the epipelagic layer, three HP groups were distinguished, two (HNA1, HNA2) whose cells exhibited a high nucleic acid content and one (LNA) with low nucleic acid content cells. HNA2 was most populated at 50 m but not detected at 90 m and below, presumably aerobic anoxygenic photoheterotrophic bacteria (AAPs). The variability in HP abundance was mainly confined in the upper 80 m. A few secondary peaks of HP abundance were observed (80–150 m) in connection with abundance troughs in the surface layer. HP cells were continuously present in a wide layer around 500 m (mean 191×10³ cells/cm³). Below this layer, HP abundance randomly exhibited peaks, coupled to respiratory rate peaks. The HP abundance and variability in the water column was suppressed during a strong wind event. The observed sporadic variability was tentatively interpreted through a pulsed carbon-export mechanism induced by the microorganism production of dissolved polysaccharides, followed by flocculation and rapid sinking. This mechanism would thus contribute to (i) preventing organic matter accumulation in the epipelagic layer, (ii) seeding the water column with live HP cells, and (iii) supplying the aphotic water column with fresh and labile organic matter. This important vertical flux mechanism needs further observations and modelling.

     

Hormone loads exported by a tile‐drained agroecosystem receiving animal wastes

Little is known regarding hormone export from tile‐drained agricultural fields despite the widespread presence of tile drains in the Midwestern United States. By intensively measuring water flow rates and hormone concentrations in four subsurface tile drains and three receiving ditches at a working Midwest farm, hormone fluxes and loads from the tile‐drained fields were quantified. Before and during the 17‐month study period (January 2009 – May 2010), the associated farm fields received various animal waste applications (beef, dairy, poultry, sheep, and swine). Hormones monitored included the estrogens17β‐ and 17α‐estradiol, estrone, and estriol; the natural androgens testosterone, and androstenedione; and the synthetic androgens 17β‐ and 17α‐trenbolone, and trendione. Hormone loads measured in the ditches for three drainage areas during the entire 17‐month study period were in ranges of 16–58 mg/ha for total estrogens, 6.8–19 mg/ha for natural androgens, and 4.2–44 mg/ha for synthetic androgens. Because higher hormone concentrations generally occurred during discrete periods of increased flow, high flow rates often were associated with a disproportionately high hormone flux. For example, 80% of total estrogens and natural androgens exported into the ditches occurred during only 9–26% of the study period, coinciding with the most significant storm events. In addition, hormone fluxes were highest during storm events that occurred shortly after animal waste applications. Therefore, to effectively reduce hormone loads exported to downstream aquatic ecosystems in the absence of any application reduction, the short periods during which high‐flow events occur must be targeted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microprocessor systems as an aid to estuarine studies in the laboratory

Three systems are outlined which indicate the potential of microprocessor systems as control devices in the generation of specifically varying environmental mental conditions. The use of an RCA 1802 Cosmac microprocessor to generate salinity cycles, tidal cycles and temperature cycles is described.     

Encystment and excystment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gyrodinium instriatum</Emphasis> Freudenthal et Lee

In the present study, we have investigated the conditions influencing encystment and excystment in the dinoflagellate Gyrodinium instriatum under laboratory conditions. We incubated G. instriatum in modified whole SWM-3 culture medium and in versions of modified SWM-3 from which NO₃ ⁻, PO₄ ³⁻, NO₃ ⁻ + PO₄ ³⁻, or Si had been omitted and observed encystment. Percentage encystment was high in the media without N and without P, while the percentage encystment in the medium lacking both N and P was highest. Moreover, to investigate N or P concentration which induced the encystment, Gyrodinium instriatum was also incubated in media with different concentrations of inorganic N and P; the concentrations of NO₂ ⁻ + NO₃ ⁻ and PO₄ ³⁻ were measured over time. The precursors of cysts appeared within 2 or 3 days of a decrease in NO₂ ⁻ + NO₃ ⁻ or PO₄ ³⁻ concentration to values lower than 1 μM or 0.2 μM, respectively. When cysts produced in the laboratory were incubated, we observed excystment after 8–37 days, without a mandatory period of darkness or low temperature. We incubated cysts collected from nature at different temperatures or in the dark or light and observed excystments. Natural cysts excysted at temperatures from 10 to 30°C, in both light and dark, but excystment was delayed at low temperatures. These studies indicate that G. instriatum encysts in low N or P concentration and excysts over a wide temperature range, regardless of light conditions, after short dormancy periods.