Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

Finding KBO Flyby Targets for New Horizons

Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

ELECTROCHEMICAL CORROSION BEHAVIOR OF STEEL IN THE JUNCTURE AREA OF SEA CLAY AND SAND

Corrosion behavior of steel in the juncture area of sea clay and sand was studied. The results show that galvanic corrosion occurred between steel samples buried in sea clay and sand, and that the polarity of the galvanic cell reversed after some testing later. The cause of reversing of polarity is discussed.     

海量多波段星表数据的交叉证认的实现

许多天文学家需要星表来选源、证认和研究。目前国外有一些大的数据中心提供了星表查询、多源查询(即小样本交叉证认)、可视化等功能。但是随着大数据量及全波段天文时代的到来,这些服务已经越来越不能满足天文学家的需求。在详细分析了国外数据中心的服务后,提出了新的问题,并给出一套解决方案。着重讨论了任意两个星表的交叉证认和大数据量星表的交叉证认的实现,以及交叉证认结果的分类和参数的自由选择等方面的课题。     

在社会发展的层面上认识“数字地球”

 本文讨论了“数字地球”的有关问题。指出“数字地球”是人类社会及其活动在网络空间的延伸和拓展,是信息技术带来的社会发展趋势。关于“数字地球”的讨论不应局限在空间信息技术领域,而应该在社会发展的层面上认识它     

VO_IMPAT:中国虚拟天文台图像处理分析工具

中国虚拟天文台图像处理分析工具（VO_IMPAT），是由国家天文台虚拟天文台项目组开发的一项服务，它提供了对数字巡天图像数据（Digital Sky Survey，DSS）、天文星表以及其他数据库的交互访问。VO_IMPAT的设计目的是实现多波段天文数据的融合。可以将不同波段的星表叠加到DSS底图上，如光学波段的USNO星表、近红外波段的2MASS星表、射电波段的NVSS星表和X射线波段的RASS星表。同时VO_IMPAT还可以对图像进行放大、缩小、伪彩色、等高线、直方图、尖锐化、平滑化、旋转等处理，不同的星表数据可以采用不同的颜色和图标显示。