Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

The geochemistry of uranium occurrences and speciation in groundwater of Chinnar sub basin,South India

An attempt has been made in Chinnar sub basin of Dharmapuri district, South India to isolate the geochemistry of uranium occurrences in groundwater. The geology of the area is mainly of charnockite and granite gneiss. Groundwater samples were collected for two different seasons post and pre monsoon in two different litho units (granite gneiss and charnockite) and analysed for major, minor and uranium concentrations. Higher uranium (18.45 μg L^?1) has been recorded during pre monsoon season in granite gneiss with increasing pH. The saturation index calculation for the groundwater isolated minerals like uaraninite, coffinite, haiweeite and soddyite to be precipitating and uranium oxides like UO_2.25, UO_2.25beta, UO_2.33beta as oversaturated. The Eh-pH diagram attempted represents solubility of uraninite within the pH range of 6.0 to 8.0. The study isolate uranium in groundwater of the study area is controlled by the presence of (U₄O₉) uranium oxide.     

Seasonally and spatially referenced estimates of recreational shore-angling effort,catch composition,catch rates and total catch in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area,South Africa

A roving creel survey of the recreational shore fishery along the 16.4-km coastline in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area on the south coast of South Africa was conducted from 2009 to 2011. Some 838 patrols were stratified equally among months, areas and years, but intentionally biased towards weekends. Angler densities at Buffalo Bay and Groenvlei were 0.59 and 0.28 anglers km?1, respectively. Weekend densities were double to quadruple weekday densities and fishing during winter was more popular than during summer. Area, habitat and distance to access points explained variation in angler densities. Shannon–Wiener diversity in catches declined from 2.18 in an earlier (1993–2002) survey to 1.79. Although the order of species abundance in the catches remained largely unchanged, blacktail Diplodus capensis dominance increased to 57.3% by number, at the expense of galjoen Dichistius capensis. Habitat explained 27% of the variance in catch composition. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the top nine species ranged from 0.19 to 6.35 fish 100-h?1. The CPUE of all species, except spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii, declined. Blacktail and galjoen CPUE declined by 17% and 77%, respectively. The total catch estimate was 2 986 fish y?1. Transgressions of size limits were common. The results suggest that the fishery is overexploited and that catch rates are declining.     

东天山伊吾二叠纪花岗质杂岩体的锆石定年、地球化学及其构造意义

伊吾花岗质杂岩体主要由二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩构成。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年分析得到二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩的侵位年龄分别为284.6±1.4Ma和284.0±1.1Ma。结合地质证据,此年龄表明该杂岩体形成于碰撞之后的二叠纪早期挤压-伸展转折阶段。岩石学、地球化学和同位素等方面的对比研究表明这两种岩石为同一岩浆演化的产物。与二长花岗岩相比,碱长花岗岩表现为硅、碱的含量较高,而铝的含量较低;富Th、U、Nb、Ta,贫Sr、P、Ti、Sm;DI和Rb/Sr升高,Nb/Ta和Zr/Hf下降,从二长花岗岩到碱长花岗岩表现出连续分异演化的趋势。计算得到二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩的模式年龄(t_(DM))分别为693Ma和763Ma,ε_(Nd)(t)分别为+4.53和+4.64,(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i分别为0.703858和0.703855,表现出高ε_(Nd)(t)低(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i的特征。这些特征表明,伊吾岩体的岩浆来自新元古代时从亏损地幔分离出来的初生地壳源区。二长花岗岩岩浆是这种初生地壳岩浆演化的产物,而碱长花岗岩形成于二长花岗岩母岩浆经斜长石、磷灰石、钛铁氧化物、榍石、独居石、褐帘石和锆石等矿物分离结晶后的残留岩浆。     

Effects of interplanetary magnetic field and magnetospheric substorm variations on the dayside aurora

Photometric observations of dayside auroras are compared with simultaneous measurements of geomagnetic disturbances from meridian chains of stations on the dayside and on the nightside to document the dynamics of dayside auroras in relation to local and global disturbances. These observations are related to measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from the satellites ISEE-1 and 3. It is shown that the dayside auroral zone shifts equatorward and poleward with the growth and decay of the circum-oval/polar cap geomagnetic disturbance and with negative and positive changes in the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (B_z). The geomagnetic disturbance associated with the auroral shift is identified as the DP2 mode. In the post-noon sector the horizontal disturbance vector of the geomagnetic field changes from southward to northward with decreasing latitude, thereby changing sign near the center of the oval precipitation region. Discrete auroral forms are observed close to or equatorward of the ΔH = 0 line which separates positive and negative H-component deflections. This reversal moves in latitude with the aurora and it probably reflects a transition of the electric field direction at the polar cap boundary. Thus, the discrete auroral forms observed on the dayside are in the region of sunward-convecting field lines. A model is proposed to explain the equatorward and poleward movement of the dayside oval in terms of a dayside current system which is intensified by a southward movement of the IMF vector. According to this model, the Pedersen component of the ionospheric current is connected with the magnetopause boundary layer via field-aligned current (FAC) sheets. Enhanced current intensity, corresponding to southward auroral shift, is consistent with increased energy extraction from the solar wind. In this way the observed association of DP2 current system variations and auroral oval expansion/contraction is explained as an effect of a global, ‘direct’ response of the electromagnetic state of the magnetosphere due to the influence of the solar wind magnetic field. Estimates of electric field, current, and the rate of Joule heat dissipation in the polar cap ionosphere are obtained from the model.     

Polar cap oh airglow rotational temperatures at the mesopause during a stratospheric warming event

OH (8-3) band rotational temperature was observed at 78.4°N during a stratospheric wanning event. A negative temperature wave of the order of 40 K observed near the mesopause seems to be associated with a corresponding stratospheric warming of the order of 20 K. A 1–2-day delay is observed between the maximum stratospheric warming and the maximum cooling near the mesopause seen in the OH rotational temperature change.     

江西铜坑嶂钼矿和红山铜矿含矿斑岩锆石U-Pb定年及其地质意义

江西铜坑嶂钼矿和红山铜矿是在武夷山成矿带中最近发现的两个斑岩型矿床。本文利用LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年方法对铜坑嶂花岗斑岩和红山含矿花岗斑岩分别进行了年代学研究,获得铜坑嶂岩体中花岗斑岩的锆石年龄为138±1Ma,代表斑岩体侵位的年龄;红山矿区含矿斑岩的锆石年龄,分作两期,分别为99Ma和49Ma,两期不同的年龄可能代表了两期热事件。研究表明,铜坑嶂钼矿的成岩成矿时代均发生在白垩纪,其岩浆作用与成矿作用基本吻合。综合前人资料,认为铜坑嶂钼矿区的斑岩和红山铜矿区的斑岩可能分别形成于大陆弧后伸展带和岩石圈伸展环境。     

The Auroral Station in Adventdalen, Svalbard

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Ground-based observations of O2 (b1Σ+g−X3Σ−g) atmospheric bands in high latitude auroras

Analysis of observed spectrograms is based on comparison with synthetic spectra. The O₂(b¹Σ⁺_g?X³Σ^?_g Atm. (1,1) band in high latitude auroras observed from the ground is found to be the strongest in the Δv = 0 sequence. It is enhanced with altitude relative to the N₂ 1P(2, 0)and N⁺₂ M(2,0) bands, but the O₂ Atm. (2, 2) band has an unexpected low intensity. The range of rotational temperatures of the O₂ Atm. bands varies from approx. 200 to above 500 K which indicates that the altitude of the centroid of the emission region varies from about 100 km to the F-region. The highest temperature is found in the midday aurora associated with the magnetospheric cusp. Conspicuous relative variations between the intensities of N₂ and O₂ spectra are documented, but a satisfactory explanation of the variety is not given. Deviations of the observed O₂ Atm. band intensities from the vibrational intensity distribution predicted by Franck-Condor factors indicate that the excitation of the O₂ Atm. bands in aurora is not mainly due to particle impact on O₂, and the contribution due to energy transfer from hot O(¹D) atoms has to be found in future research.     

A Quartz-bearing Orthopyroxene-rich Websterite Xenolith from the Pannonian Basin, Western Hungary: Evidence for Release of Quartz-saturated Melts from a Subducted Slab

An unusual quartz-bearing orthopyroxene-rich websterite xenolithhas been found in an alkali basaltic tuff at Szigliget, Bakony–BalatonHighland Volcanic Field (BBHVF), western Hungary. Ortho- andclinopyroxenes are enriched in light rare earth elements (LREE),middle REE and Ni, and depleted in Nb, Ta, Sr and Ti comparedwith ortho- and clinopyroxenes occurring in either peridotiteor lower crustal granulite xenoliths from the BBHVF. Both ortho-and clinopyroxenes in the xenolith contain primary and secondarysilicate melt inclusions, and needle-shaped or rounded quartzinclusions. The melt inclusions are rich in SiO₂ and alkalisand poor in MgO, FeO and CaO. They are strongly enriched inLREE and large ion lithophile elements, and display negativeNb, Ta and Sr anomalies, and slightly positive Pb anomalies.The xenolith is interpreted to represent a fragment of an orthopyroxene-richbody that crystallized in the upper mantle from a hybrid meltthat formed by interaction of mantle peridotite with a quartz-saturatedsilicate melt that was released from a subducted oceanic slab.Although the exact composition of the slab melt cannot be determined,model calculations on major and trace elements suggest involvementof a metasedimentary component. KEY WORDS: quartz; mantle; silicate melt inclusion; SiO₂-rich melt; subduction; Carpathian-Pannonian Region