Assessment of alternative adsorption models and global sensitivity analysis to characterize hexavalent chromium loss from soil to surface runoff

We investigate our ability to assess transfer of hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), from the soil to surface runoff by considering the effect of coupling diverse adsorption models with a two‐layer solute transfer model. Our analyses are grounded on a set of two experiments associated with soils characterized by diverse particle size distributions. Our study is motivated by the observation that Cr(VI) is receiving much attention for the assessment of environmental risks due to its high solubility, mobility, and toxicological significance. Adsorption of Cr(VI) is considered to be at equilibrium in the mixing layer under our experimental conditions. Four adsorption models, that is, the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin, and linear models, constitute our set of alternative (competing) mathematical formulations. Experimental results reveal that the soil samples characterized by the finest grain sizes are associated with the highest release of Cr(VI) to runoff. We compare the relative abilities of the four models to interpret experimental results through maximum likelihood model calibration and four model identification criteria (i.e., the Akaike information criteria [AIC and AIC_C] and the Bayesian and Kashyap information criteria). Our study results enable us to rank the tested models on the basis of a set of posterior weights assigned to each of them. A classical variance‐based global sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the relative importance of the uncertain parameters associated with each of the models considered, within subregions of the parameter space. In this context, the modelling strategy resulting from coupling the Langmuir isotherm with a two‐layer solute transfer model is then evaluated as the most skilful for the overall interpretation of both sets of experiments. Our results document that (a) the depth of the mixing layer is the most influential factor for all models tested, with the exception of the Freundlich isotherm, and (b) the total sensitivity of the adsorption parameters varies in time, with a trend to increase as time progresses for all of the models. These results suggest that adsorption has a significant effect on the uncertainty associated with the release of Cr(VI) from the soil to the surface runoff component.     

抗差估计的初值选择

对L1 范估计的平差值和LS估计的平差值作为抗差估计的初值进行了比较 ,指出在 ρ函数是严凸函数时 ,二者无明显的区别。因为LS估计简单且易于计算 ,因此建议用LS估计的平差值作为抗差估计的初值。     

用遗传算法解算病态方程

对应用遗传算法解决病态方程问题进行了探讨。利用拟合法而不是通过法方程求解参数，从而避免了法方程系数求逆，使病态方程的解答有了较好的结果。通过模拟计算并和其他方法进行比较，证明该方法是可行的和有效的。     

Distribution of the C37 tetra-unsaturated alkenone in Lake Qinghai, China: A potential lake salinity indicator

The alkenone unsaturation index U^K′₃₇ has been applied to reconstruct past temperature changes in both marine and lacustrine systems. However, few studies have addressed whether the relative abundance of the C_37:4 alkenone to the total C₃₇ production (%C_37:4) can reflect surface salinity changes in lacustrine systems. Here we present long-chain C₃₇ alkenone distribution patterns in surface sediments from Lake Qinghai, China. Surface sediments were sampled over a large range of surface salinity changes (1.7-25 g/l) within Lake Qinghai and its surrounding lakes, while temperature differences at these sampling locations should be relatively small. We have found that %C_37:4 varies from 15% to 49% as surface salinity decreases. We tentatively describe this %C_37:4-salinity link with a general linear regression: %C_37:4 = 53.4 (±7.8) − 1.73 (±0.45) × S (n = 28, r² = 0.62), although step-wise %C_37:4 changes in response to salinity variation may exist. U^K′₃₇ values vary between 0.10 and 0.16 at these sites and the inferred range of lake water temperature changes is ∼2-3 °C, suggesting that U^K′₃₇ largely reflects temperature signal across a large salinity range, consistent with previous findings that U^K′₃₇ can indicate temperature changes over a large diversity of environmental settings. We have also found that U^K′₃₇ values are correlated with salinity changes (r² = 0.4), and thus cannot exclude potential temperature effect on %C_37:4 and salinity effect on U^K′₃₇ in this study. However, even extreme estimates of temperature differences within the lake are still unable to explain the observed %C_37:4 changes. We therefore suggest that %C_37:4 could be used to infer past lake salinity changes at a regional scale.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

印支运动的沉积学响应——以湖北秭归盆地中、上三叠统为例

通过对秭归盆地南缘中、上三叠统巴东组和沙镇溪组地层剖面的实测及1∶10万秭归幅地质填图发现,中三叠统巴东组在秭归盆地东南缘存在不同程度的缺失,秭归郭家坝一带,只沉积巴东组一段、二段地层。秭归楠家湾一带,整个巴东组全部缺失,上三叠统沙镇溪组直接覆盖于早三叠世嘉陵江组之上。而秭归盆地西缘沙镇溪、巴东麂子岩一带,巴东组发育齐全。上述现象表明,在早三叠世末期,由于印支运动的影响,巴东组地层出现了较大差异。沙镇溪组在沉积上继承了巴东组高低不平的古地貌特征,沉积厚度变化较大。上三叠统沙镇溪组与中统巴东组之间,在盆地不同的部位可呈现出整合或平行不整合的接触关系,而不存在断层接触关系。     

平鲷♀与真鲷♂的杂交研究

研究了不同盐度，温度，ｐＨ对平鲷Ｒｈａｂｄｏｓａｒｇｕｓ ｓａｒｂａ♀和真鲷Ｐａｇｒｏｓｏｍｕｓ ｍａｊｏｒ♂清子活力的影响，确立了人工授精与孵化的条件参数。平鲷♀与真鲷♂杂交的受精率达９５％以上，胚胎发育与其亲本的相似。经过超低温保存的真鲷精子的激活率，活力与鲜精的接近，其杂产的受精率也可达９５％以上。实验获得了杂产仔鱼，但杂交的孵化率比对照组低。     

南海大鹏湾夜光藻种群在其生态群落中的地位和功能

分析了１９９１年上半年南海大鹏湾盐田水域夜光菏和浮游动、植物之间的种群动态关系，结果表明，在春季高峰期３月至５月初，调查海域共出现１２个夜光藻和浮游动、植物高峰。其中，以发生４次赤潮的夜光藻种群占主导地位，其次是枝角类的鸟啄尖头蚤，其最高数量高达９６２３８ｉｎｄ／ｍ＾３。相比之下，在夜光藻和枝角类岛啄尖头捕食压力的影响下，浮游植物的春季高峰并不显著。调查结果表明夜光藻的过度繁殖，不但对产浮游性卵的