The determination and analysis of the orbit of NIMBUS 1 ROCKET, 1964-52B: Part 2: Variations in orbital eccentricity

The influence of aerodynamic drag and the geopotential on the motion of the satellite 1964-52B is considered. A model of the atmosphere is adopted that allows for oblateness, and in which the density behaviour approximates to the observed diurnal variation. A differential equation governing the variation of the eccentricity, e, combining the effects of air drag with those of the Earth's gravitational field is given. This is solved numerically using as initial conditions 310 computed orbits of 1964-52B.The observed values of eccentricity are modified by the removal of perturbations due to luni-solar attraction, solid Earth and ocean tides, solar radiation pressure and low-order long-periodic tesseral harmonic perturbations. The method of removal of these effects is given in some detail. The behaviour of the orbital eccentricity predicted by the numerical solution is compared with the modified observed eccentricity to obtain values of atmospheric parameters at heights between 310 and 430 km. The daytime maximum of air density is found to be at 14.5 hours local time. Analysis of the eccentricity near 15th order resonance with the geopotential yielded values of four lumped geopotential harmonics of order 15, namely: $\text{10}{}^9\text{C}{}^{\mathrm{1,0}}{}_{15}\text{= ?78.8 ± 7.0}$, $\text{10}{}^9\text{S}{}^{\mathrm{1,0}}{}_{15}\text{= ?69.4 ± 5.3}$, $\text{10}{}^9\text{C}{}^{\mathrm{?1,2}}{}_{15}\text{= ?41.6 ± 3.5}$$\text{10}{}^9\text{S}{}^{\mathrm{?1,2}}{}_{15}\text{= ?26.1 ± 8.9}$, at inclination 98.68°.     

The determination and analysis of the orbit of NIMBUS 1 ROCKET, 1964-52B: Part 1: The orbits

Orbital parameters of the satellite NIMBUS 1 ROCKET (1964-52B) have been determined at 285 epochs using about 14,500 optical and radar observations during the last 2233 days of its life. 1964-52B was in an orbit inclined at about 98.7° to the Equator and it decayed on 13 August 1974. The orbital elements were found using the RAE orbit refinement program PROP 6 giving average orbital accuracies in perigee height and inclination at 110 m and 0.002° respectively.     

Deglaciation of the younger dryas or Loch Lomond Stadial ice-field in the northern Highlands,Scotland

When viewed from the air, Scottish ‘hummocky moraine’ can be resolved into a series of linear ridges that resemble those found at the margins of actively retreating glaciers today. Recent work has supported the interpretation of these linear ridges as ice-marginal landforms and the authors believe that the majority of ‘hummocky moraine’ deposits can be interpreted in this way. Consequently the pattern of deglaciation can be established fairly precisely from the pattern of linear ridges. This approach is applied to the landforms of the northern part of the Loch Lomond Stadial ice-field in order to reconstruct the regional pattern of deglaciation. This leads to important inferences about the significance of topographic control during deglaciation and more importantly it provides fresh insight into the environment of the British Isles during the Loch Lomond Stadial.     

Drainage beneath ice sheets: groundwater–channel coupling,and the origin of esker systems from former ice sheets

The nature of the drainage system beneath ice sheets is crucial to their dynamic behaviour but remains problematic. An experimentally based theory of coupling between groundwater and major channel systems is applied to the esker systems in the area occupied the last ice sheet in Europe, which we regard as a fossil imprint of major longitudinal drainage channels. We conclude that the large-scale distribution and spacing of major eskers is consistent with the theory of groundwater control, in which esker spacing is partly controlled by the transmissivity of the bed.It is concluded that esker patterns reflect the large-scale organisation of the subglacial drainage pattern in which channel development is coupled to groundwater flow and to the ice sheet's dynamic regime. The theory is then used to deduce: basal meltwater recharge rates and their spatial variability from esker spacing in an area in which the ice sheet was actively streaming during its final retreat; patterns of palaeo-groundwater flow and head distribution; and the seasonally varying magnitude of discharge from stream tunnels at the retreating ice sheet margin. Major channel/esker systems appear to have been stable at least over several hundred of years during the retreat of the ice sheet, although major dynamic events are demonstrably associated with major shifts in the hydraulic regime.Modelling suggests: that glaciation can stimulate deep groundwater circulation cells that are spatially linked to channel locations, with groundwater flow predominantly transverse to ice flow; that the circulation pattern has the potential to create large-scale anomalies in groundwater chemistry; and that the spacing of channels will change through the glacial cycle, influencing water pressures in stream tunnels, subglacial hydraulic gradients and effective pressure. If the latter is reduced sufficiently, it could trigger enhanced bed deformation, thus coupling drainage to ice sheet movement. It suggests the possibility of distinctive phases of sediment deformation and drumlin mobilisation during a glacial cycle.     

Education for development, CD for Peace: Producing the “globally competitive” child

This paper is set against the backdrop of an increasingly pervasive discursive coupling of peace with development, and of extremism with underdevelopment. An evolving knowledge economy discourse casts education as both a key determinant of economic development, and as a crucial tool in the battle for “hearts and minds” in a global war against terrorism and extremism. Education for development, and education as anti-extremism are the twin goals of the Filipino CD for Peace - a contribution to the UN-backed International Power Users of ICT (Information Communication Technology) Symposium. In this paper, I examine the ways in which this youth Symposium feeds into and mobilizes powerful logics around the links between education and development/counterterrorism. My argument is that education for development, and one of its articulations, the CD for Peace, are undergirded by and reproduce neoliberal development logics in several overlapping respects. I illustrate the ways in which the language of connection and collaboration reproduces a distinct rationality related both to the transformative potential of (private investment in) ICT and to the production of particular kinds of subjectivities: youth as connected, informed, economically valuable global citizens beyond the reach of extremists. The Power Users project works to (re)construct teenagers as “gurus”; conflict (and poverty, and terrorism) becomes solvable through education and ICT. I show how knowledge economy discourse powerfully constructs youth as learning subjects who come to imagine their own roles and identities in specifically neoliberal ways: not only as learners, but also as advocates for this nexus of technology, education, development and peace.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Normal fault growth and linkage in the Gediz (Alaşehir) Graben,Western Turkey,revealed by transient river long‐profiles and slope‐break knickpoints

The Gediz (Ala?ehir) Graben is located in the highly tectonically active and seismogenic region of Western Turkey. The rivers upstream of the normal fault‐bounded graben each contain a non‐lithologic knickpoint, including those that drain through inferred fault segment boundaries. Knickpoint heights measured vertically from the fault scale with footwall relief and documented fault throw (vertical displacement). Consequently, we deduce these knickpoints were initiated by an increase in slip rate on the basin‐bounding fault, driven by linkage of the three main fault segments of the high‐angle graben bounding fault array. Fault interaction theory and ratios of channel steepness suggest that the slip rate enhancement factor on linkage was a factor of 3. We combine this information with geomorphic and structural constraints to estimate that linkage took place between 0.6 Ma and 1 Ma. Calculated pre‐ and post‐linkage throw rates are 0.6 and 2 mm/yr respectively. Maximum knickpoint retreat rates upstream of the faults range from 4.5 to 28 mm/yr, faster than for similar catchments upstream of normal faults in the Central Apennines and the Hatay Graben of Turkey, and implying a fluvial landscape response time of 1.6 to 2.7 Myr. We explore the relative controls of drainage area and precipitation on these retreat rates, and conclude that while climate variation and fault throw rate partially explain the variations seen, lithology remains a potentially important but poorly characterised variable. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.